...Research Proposal on “To study the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of China” Table of Contents Dissertation Title 3 Introduction 3 Rationale of Study: Error! Bookmark not defined. Outline of the Research Project: Error! Bookmark not defined. Research Questions Error! Bookmark not defined. Research Aim and Objectives Error! Bookmark not defined. Significance of the study………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..11 Research Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….15 Research philoshophy…………………………………………………………………………16 Research Design…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18 Data Collection…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..22 Data Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….28 literature review……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………36 References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………42 Dissertation Title “To study the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of China” 1. Introduction Higher oil prices might affect the global economy through a variety of channels, including transfer of wealth from oil consumers to oil producers, a rise in the cost of production of goods and services, and impact on inflation, consumer confidence, and financial markets. In a pioneer work, Hamilton (1983) indicated that higher oil prices were responsible for almost all U.S recessions after World War II. Later other researchers extended Hamilton’s...
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...1.4 The macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks 1.4.1 A short history of a controversial topic Since the 1973 OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil embargo, the role of rapid, unanticipated increases in oil prices has been a topic of intense interest, among both economists and the lay public. Considering the magnitude of widespread national recessions during the 1970s, the controversy surrounding research on the macroeconomics of oil price shocks may seem surprising: why would anyone doubt the capacity of oil price shocks to cause the major movements in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which have been observed in so many countries? Possibly most important in fueling the controversy is the small share of GDP that oil and its close substitutes have comprised in most economies: 1.5% to 3% prior to the 1973 episode. Experienced macroeconomists doubted that even a sizeable shock to such a small part of the economy could have the observed effects. Second, the 1973 episode itself was not a clean experiment because a number of other major factors were emerging at the same time. The world economy was just getting off the post-Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime. A number of countries, including the United States, was teetering on the brink of recession at the time of the 1973 shock; in the United States in particular, monetary policy tightened right around the time of the 1973 shock. Separating these effects and deciding the role ...
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...NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DEVALUATION CRISES AND THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POSTPONED ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Sebastian Edwards Peter Montiel Working Paper No 66 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 February 1989 A first version of this paper was written while Edwards was a visiting scholar in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. We have benefited from discussions with Saul Lizondo. We are particularly This paper is part of grateful to Mohsin Ehan for very helpful comments. NBER's research program in International Studies. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper #2866 February 1989 DEVALUATION CRISES AND THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POSTPONED ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ABSTRACT This paper develops our analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring an official devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock, In the case of fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual official devaluation and greater deviations of macroeconomic variables from their steady-state values. shocks, For adverse terms of trade postponement does not affect the size of the eventual official ...
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...FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROGRAMME (PSMTP) MPSM 5TH COHORT PSM 542: INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCE GROUP ASSIGNMENT 1 Candidate's Reg. Numbers R118475MP – LUSITO NEEMA FERDINAND R118472MP – LIMBE RUTH COSMAS R118474MP – MATATA JIMMY AVUTIA LECTURER. MR CHARLES MAKANYEZA Due date; 15th October, 2012 Question Two Discuss the various factors that determine the exchange rate regime. Introduction This paper is an attempt to discuss various factors which determine the exchange regime in relation to the international trade. The paper will provide a brief overview of the exchange rate regimes in the international trade, define key terms. It will also explore the various types of exchange rate regime practiced in the international and finally it will delineate the main factors that determine the exchange rate regime. Overview of exchange rate in the International trade. The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime for developing countries has been at the center of the debate in international finance for a long time. The steady increase in magnitude and variability of international capital flows has intensified the debate in the past few years as each of the major currency crises in the 1990s has in some way involved a fixed exchange rate and sudden reversal of capital inflows. While the debate...
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...Studying the Great Moderation Randi Pittman MBA6008 – Section 101 Unit 6 – Assignment 1 02/15/2013 There are many things which could affect economic volatility. In fact, I recently read a case study which described this situation. The case study was entitled “The Great Moderation, Dead or Alive?” or “The Great Moderation,” for short. This case study was written by Diego Comin and was published by the Harvard Business School (Comin, 2011). The author begins by giving us a background on the situation that he analyzed. The case in question has often been referred to as the Great Moderation. After thoroughly describing this time period, Comin then provides us with some rationalizations for this occurrence (Comin, 2011). Next, the topics of the variance of stocks and reduced amplification were covered (Comin, 2011). There were also other possible causes of changes in volatility discussed; such as globalization, inventory management, policy, demographics, and technological diffusion (Comin, 2011). Well put together, the case study is an excellent example of how one can analyze an economic situation. To begin, let’s take a look at what happened during the time period known as the great moderation. During this time period, which began in the 80’s, there was a reduction in the volatility of output (Comin, 2011). Exactly what does this mean? In terms of economics, volatility can be defined as “a measure of risk based on the standard deviation of the asset return” (Volatility...
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...Macroeconomic Picture of Agriculture sector in Indian Economy Theodore Schultz began his acceptance speech for the 1979 Nobel Prize in Economics observing: “Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor we would know much of the economics that really matters. Most of the world's poor people earn their living from agriculture, so if we knew the economics of agriculture we would know much of the economics of being poor” (Shultz, 1979). Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector auto regression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study Â’s findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock. The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Agricultural Prices (July 2009) provides empirical evidence that price and exchange rate transmission for agricultural products is low in most developing...
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...Review of Literature…………………………………………………………..5 Theory…………………………………………………………………………15 Application…………………………………………………………………….18 Summary & Conclusion……………………………………………………….20 Tables…………………………………………………………………………..22 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………24 1. Introduction Oil price fluctuations have affected the people and economies of the U.S. for most of the twentieth century. The commodity has seen minor changes and major fluctuations during this period. Major price changes within a short timeframe are called shocks. The research I propose will attempt to answer the question: What is the impact of changing oil prices on the macro economy of a country? Research has demonstrated oil price fluctuations do impact economies as well as supply of and demand for the commodity. This influence on macroeconomic activity generated symmetric movement between price and many macroeconomic indices in the 1970's. However, after 1982, macroeconomic indices did not demonstrate the same proclivity to react to oil price movement. Information spreads almost instantly with the emergence of the internet. This expedient movement of news has led to an evolving trend of speculation which may or may not be beneficial to commodity pricing. One may infer that the recent prevalence of mass media leads to rapid movement back and forth of oil prices. I insert this topic at this point to bring to the surface that mass media was in early development during the proposed study periods. ...
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...Review Questions According to R. Glenn Hubbard and Anthony Patrick O’Brien, the aggregate expenditure model focuses on the relationship between total spending and real GDP in the short run, assuming that the price level is constant. The key idea of the aggregate expenditure model is that in any particular year, the level of GDP is determined mainly by the level of aggregate expenditure. Aggregate expenditures are the total expenditures on gross domestic product. These expenditures are used by the household, business, government, and foreign sectors to purchase the entire gross domestic product supplied by the domestic economy. The four categories of aggregate expenditures are: consumption expenditures (household sector), investment expenditures (business sector), government purchases (government sector), and net exports (foreign sector). Consumption expenditures are the expenditures by the household on final goods and services taken on in a given time period. The categories of consumption expenditures include nondurable goods, durable goods, and services. Nondurable goods include food, clothing, and facial tissue. Durable goods include cars, furniture, and kitchen appliances. Services include health care, entertainment, education, legal advice, and other intangible activities that do not involve a physical product (Aggregate, 2014). According to R. Glenn Hubbard and Anthony Patrick O’Brien, the aggregate demand curve shows the relationship between the price level and the...
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...related to monetary policy and financial sector continue to attract a lot of research interest all over the world and this is all the more true for emerging economies like India which are gradually integrating with the rest of the world. Accordingly, the initiatives taken by the IGIDR to hold annual conferences on the topic of Money and Finance to bring together researchers and policymakers are indeed welcome. 2. With growing financial openness, globalisation and liberalisation, financial stability issues have come to the forefront. These issues have ranged from discussions on basic issues of the definition of financial stability itself to issues of measurement, issues of choice of instruments to achieve the objective of financial stability and even issues on the degree of activism that central banks should adopt in pursuing this objective. 3. Traditionally, it has been believed that monetary stability leads to financial stability. However, as the events of the 1990s show, it need not necessarily be the case. While there are complementarities between these two objectives, especially in the long run, the same need not hold in the short-run. A stable macroeconomic environment - low and stable inflation, sustained growth and low interest rates - can generate excessive optimism about the future economic prospects and often the risks are downplayed. Accordingly, episodes of financial instability often have their origins in environment of macroeconomic stability. Thus, macro economic stability...
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...Does the current institutional framework of the Euro-zone favour the maintenance of macroeconomic stability in that area? The Euro-zone is an economic and monetary union that currently has 17 members. These 17 members have established the Euro as their official currency, which has as main consequence that the monetary policies are under the command of the European Central Bank. The main advantage of this is that they have a fixed exchange rate, so they don´t have to face the international volatility of the currency market. However as their monetary policies depend on the European Central Bank, loosing effectiveness in their own fiscal and monetary policies, making it harder to face economic crises, especially when you have a weak economic framework, which was the case of Spain. If all the economies where homogeneous then it would be easier to apply the policies, but as each member is very different we have a problem due to the macroeconomic disparity among the members. If the recession occurs at the same time, it is easier to develop the monetary policies, and even if in some countries there is recession and in others not, the asymmetry can be accommodated through the members, however due to the huge disparities among countries it is not that easy. The recent crises have increased the awareness of the huge disparities that we can find in the members. These differences, which relays on the diversity of the members, have risen the question of the viability of the Eurozone...
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...Chapter 12 - Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis CHAPTER TWELVE MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS CHAPTER OVERVIEW This is the one of three chapters that covers fundamental security valuation. This chapter introduces a topdown approach to fundamental security analysis. It covers the first two components: macroeconomic and industry analysis. The textbook begins with a global analysis, particularly with respect to how the performance of domestic firms is influenced by international economic performance. The chapter’s main focus however is on aspects of the U. S. economy that affect security returns, including fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, a brief presentation of the determinants of interest rates is covered. The chapter concludes with a discussion of industry analysis that includes classifications of industries, information sources, the industrial life cycle and a Porter framework that can be used to analyze industry competition. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Upon reading this chapter, you should have a basic understanding of some of the macroeconomic factors that affect security prices. That is, how fiscal and monetary policy affect interest rates and security prices. And some industry groups are more affected by macroeconomic factors than others and the characteristics of an industry that affect its competitiveness. CHAPTER OUTLINE The top-down approach to fundamental analysis begins with analyzing the economy. Expected economic performance will influence...
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...1. Critically examine the effectiveness of various approaches that may be used to reduce macroeconomic instability. According to Mc Vaish (Macroeconomics theory, p123) Macroeconomics can be defined as the analysis of the economy wide aggregates such as the analysis of the total output and employment, total consumption, total investment, total saving and national product. Macroeconomic theory employs technique of general equilibrium in order to study the determination of the general price level, money supply, total employment and output levels and fluctuations in these aggregates magnitudes. A macroeconomic stable environment can be defined as one in which inflation is low and predictable, the exchange rate is near its equilibrium level, the government budget is well managed, the budget deficit relative to GDP is at a reasonable level and the use of central bank credit to finance the budget deficit is kept at a minimal level. Macroeconomic stability sends important signals to the private sector about the direction of economic policies and the credibility of authorities’ commitment to manage the economy efficiently. Such stability, by facilitating long term planning and investment decisions, encourages savings and capital accumulation by the private sector. Macroeconomic instability takes place in two forms namely exogenous shocks and inappropriate policies. Exogenous shocks (such as reversal capital flows, terms of trade and natural disasters) require compensatory action...
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...Economic Modelling 30 (2013) 643–662 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Economic Modelling journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecmod The effects of fiscal spending shocks on the performance of simple monetary policy rules Ali K. Malik ⁎ Karachi School for Business and Leadership (KSBL), Bahadurabad, National Stadium Road, Karachi 74800, Pakistan a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Accepted 26 August 2012 JEL classification: E50 E52 E58 Keywords: Fiscal policy Monetary policy Inflation targeting Impulse response analysis Macroeconomic variables 1. Introduction a b s t r a c t We examine the effects of fiscal shocks on the performance of alternative monetary policy rules in a small dynamic general equilibrium framework. We explicitly consider the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy rules which may be present in the real world. We use a simple specification for the fiscal policy rule and various specifications for the (simple) monetary policy rule. Our analysis suggests that some form of flex- ible inflation targeting regime would perform well in response to fiscal shocks compared to other forms of policy regimes. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. monetary policy has developed largely in isolation. The terminology ‘fiscal theory of the price level’ does however correspond to some ear- Monetary policy rules have come under extensive examination in the literature on monetary...
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...Agrekon, Vol 46, No 4 (December 2007) Asfaha & Jooste The Effect of Monetary Changes on Relative Agricultural Prices TA Asfaha1 and A Jooste2 Abstract Relative change in agricultural prices determines farmers` investment decisions, productivity and income. Thus, understanding the factors that influence agricultural prices is fundamental for sustainable growth in this sector and the rest of the economy. This paper investigates the short- and long-run impacts of monetary policy changes on relative agricultural prices in South Africa by employing Johansen cointegration analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) respectively. The results of Johansen cointegration analysis reject the long-run money neutrality hypothesis which suggests that the rate of increase in prices is not unit proportional to the rate of increase in money supply. On the other hand, the results of the dynamic relationships provide evidence of agricultural prices being overshot. Therefore, when a monetary shock occurs, the agriculture sector will have to bear the burden of adjustment, increasing farmers’ financial vulnerability. Consumers also have to absorb short-run price volatility and overshooting of prices which in turn impacts on their ability to manage their cash flow optimally; this could be a substantial challenge in poor households. Due to the linkages between monetary policy variables and relative agricultural prices, it is recommended that agricultural policy makers and monetary authorities...
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...Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria Tel: 234-085-338-1914 Received: May 31, 2011 doi:10.5539/ijef.v4n1p204 Abstract E-mail: omosaibu@yahoo.com Published: January 1, 2012 Accepted: July 5, 2011 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v4n1p204 The study investigated the transmission channels of monetary policy impulses on sectoral output growth in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2009. Secondary quarterly data were used for the study while granger causality and Vector Auto-regressive Method of analysis were utilized. The results showed that interest rate channel was most effective in transmitting monetary policy to Agriculture and Manufacturing sectors while exchange rate channel was most effective for transmitting monetary policy to Building/Construction, Mining, Service and Wholesale/Retail sectors. The study concluded that interest rate and exchange rate policies were the most effective monetary policy measures in stimulating sectoral output growth in Nigeria. Keywords: Sectoral output, Monetary transmission channels, Granger causality, VAR model 1. Introduction The channels through which monetary policy impulse is being transmitted to the economy had been a subject of continuous discourse among academia’s and researchers given that an understanding of the transmission of monetary policy to real output is key for central bankers to conduct monetary policy effectively. While issues on monetary transmission...
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