...Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Robyn Wilson Strayer University Econ 550 Assignment One January 31, 2013 Report the demographic and independent variables that are relevant to complete a demand analysis providing a rationale for the selection of the variables. Demographics are an important variable when choosing target marketing strategies. The variables are relevant to complete a demand analysis by providing a rationale for the selection of the variables. Whithin my area, Cross, SC, I am looking at local demographics and paying special attention to the following: • Age: Persons under 18 years percent 27.4% • Income levels: Average 39,779 per household • Persons below poverty level: 17.2% • Education: Bachelor degree age 25+ percent 13.1% • Housing: ownership rate 57.9% Making an informed analysis will inform you about the spending and eating habits of the people who live in the servicing area. Demogrphics give you a clear understanding of the areas behavior, values, cultures, interests and lifestyles of the community. Data research was consider because of the amount of time given for the assignment. The success of Domino’s opening a location in Cross, SC will depend on the factors listed above. Having a customer loyalty program that will have frequent customers that will come buy the products will help the company save on selling expenses...
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...Running Head: DEMAND AND FORECASTING Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting [bami] strayer University] Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting The demographics used for the demand analysis are the average yearly income of the house hold in Georgia, the total yearly population, and average kids per house. The rationale behind choosing these demographics is that the demand is highly associated with the average income, and can have a great impact on the demand of the economy, for higher the income, the higher the spending ability of an average house hold. Therefore, it can also be said that the average income is directly proportional to the spending ability of an average house hold, whereas as far as total yearly population is concerned, demand is also associated with the total population, as for demand arises with rise in population. Average kids per house hold also have a strong link with demand. Considering the fact that pizza is highly popular among kids, and is the cause of its major demand. The other independent variables used for conducting a demand analysis are price of the pizza, and price of the soda. The rationale behind choosing these demographics is that the demand is also highly associated with price, as per the demand and supply law, the lower the price the higher the demand, and the higher the price, the lower the demand. Pizza and soda are two main products of a pizza restaurant...
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...Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting ECO 550 January 24, 2013 Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Page 1 I have been considering opening a Domino’s Pizza in my community within the Virginia Beach area. In this paper I will present to you, a data analysis and a forecast of Domino Pizza’s sales revenue that consist of the demographics within my community. These demographics consist of the population size, the average income per household and the independent variables which include the price in pizza and soda. This demand analysis will be used to give an estimated forecast that will assist in my business making decision technique, which will determine if it will be beneficial for me to open a Domino’s Pizza in my area. To determine if I will enter into the market place in Virginia Beach, I will research the reported demographic and independent variables that are relevant to complete a demand analysis that has been provided to me from different resources within my community. By using Excel to calculate, I will input the data that I have collected to create an estimated regression analysis. Once the calculation has been provided, I will be able to interpret the coefficient of determination, and how it has provided an influence on my decision to open the pizza business in my area. Variables. The significant...
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...Tool 3. Demand Analysis Economic Analysis of Tobacco Demand Nick Wilkins, Ayda Yurekli, and Teh-wei Hu DRAFT USERS : PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK AND COMMENTS TO Joy de Beyer ( jdebeyer@worldbank.org) and Ayda Yurekli (ayurekli@worldbank.org) World Bank, MSN G7-702 1818 H Street NW Washington DC, 20433 USA Fax : (202) 522-3234 Contents I. Introduction 1 Purpose of this Tool 1 Who Should Use this Tool 2 How to Use this Tool 2 II. Define the Objectives of the Analysis 4 The Reason for Analysis of Demand 4 The Economic Case for Demand Intervention 4 Analysis of Demand for the Policy Maker 5 Design an Analysis of Demand Study 6 Components of a Study 6 The Nature of Econometric Analysis 7 Resources Required 7 Summary 8 References and Additional Information 8 III. Conduct Background Research 9 IV. Build the Data Set 11 Choose the Variables 11 Data Availability 11 Data Types 12 Prepare the Data 13 Data Cleaning and Preliminary Examination 14 Preparing the Data Variables 14 References and Additional...
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...Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting An Assignment Submitted by Name of Student Name of Establishment Class XXXX, Section XXXX, Fall 2013 Assignment 1: Making Decisions Based on Demand and Forecasting Regression analysis is the description about the relationship between two variables where one is dependent and the other is independent. Regression analysis (in statistics), generally, is about any techniques that facilitate modeling and analysis of several variables. It focuses on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables (Sykes, 2000). To be specific, regression analysis allows understanding of the typicality of value of the dependent variable changes, while any one of the independent variables is varied. At the same time, the other independent variables must be fixed. Usually, regression analysis estimates the expectation of conditions connected to the dependent variable given the independent variables (Sykes, 2000). Thus, the average value of the dependent variable is calculated using condition that the independent variables are held fixed. Not that often, regression analysis focuses on a quantile, or other location parameter of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the independent variables. Nevertheless, the regression function is the estimation target, which is a function of the independent variables. In regression analysis, it is also necessary...
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...3 Decision Analysis 1) Expected monetary value (EMV) is the average or expected monetary outcome of a decision if it can be repeated a large number of times. Answer: TRUE Diff: 2 Topic: DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK 2) Expected monetary value (EMV) is the payoff you should expect to occur when you choose a particular alternative. Answer: FALSE Diff: 2 Topic: DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK 3) The decision maker can control states of nature. Answer: FALSE Diff: 1 Topic: THE SIX STEPS IN DECISION MAKING 4) All decisions that result in a favorable outcome are considered to be good decisions. Answer: FALSE Diff: 2 Topic: INTRODUCTION 5) The difference in decision making under risk and decision making under uncertainty is that under risk, we think we know the probabilities of the states of nature, while under uncertainty we do not know the probabilities of the states of nature. Answer: TRUE Diff: 2 Topic: TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS 6) EVPI (expected value of perfect information) is a measure of the maximum EMV as a result of additional information. Answer: TRUE Diff: 2 Topic: DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK 7) When using the EOL as a decision criterion, the best decision is the alternative with the largest EOL value. Answer: FALSE Diff: 2 Topic: DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK 8) To determine the effect of input changes on decision results, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. Answer: TRUE Diff: 2 Topic: DECISION MAKING...
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...Making Decisions Based on Demand & Forecasting Assignment 1 The Demand Analysis of Domino’s Pizza Established in Woodruff SC This is a demand analysis on the decision-making process of whether Domino’s Pizza should enter the area of Woodruff, SC. It is going to reflect the research of demographics, population size, and average income per household, as well as the advertising costs for the competitor in the same market and area. The research is based on the variables taken from the years 2000, 2005, and 2010. With this criterion entered into the demand analysis equation it will assist in the decision-making process of if they should enter Woodruff’s market area or not. The logic of selecting these variables in population size and average income per household is that in the study of Economics and research in analysis of demand reflects highly to the demand curve function. The demand function can be defined by our textbook on page 32 as follows: “A relationship between quantity demanded and all the determinants of demand.” When looking at the effects in the shifting of the demand curve it is substantial in stating that a shift in the demand curve is based on any of the other factors of the demand function besides price causing the shift to occur. The demand based on average income in comparison to the size of the population of Woodruff is a definite factor in our conclusion of the decision-making process based on the impacts that the average income has on the quantity demanded...
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...that will standardise and improve controls across our entire supply chain and manufacturing operations. To help us improve the business decisions we make across the enterprise we are going to implement a new process called the Core Commercial Cycle which is a key enterprise wide planning and decision-making process which brings together Commercial, Finance and Supply Chain to ensure supply chain plans allow us to meet the expected demand for our products. In practice, CCC takes form of a series of monthly meetings performed at global level. There are 3 important governing bodies in this cycle as described in the scheme below : the GDRM (Global Demand Review Meeting) aiming to review and agree the demand forecast for the next 2 years (risks, opportunities and issues), the GSRM (Global Supply Review Meeting) aiming to develop supply plan and scenarios on how to respond to the demand signal provided by the GDRM and finally, the S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning Meeting) where final decisions are taken based on the review of the escalations to end-up to the sign-off of an aggregated demand forecast and supply plan. Our Supply Chain execution and responsiveness require the tight synchronisation of supply and demand, as well as the orchestration of the data and information flow to analyse its performance and support the decision-making. If every part of the supply chain has its own data, then you have lots of debate over comparability. Therefore, an integrated supply chain...
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...|Decision-Making Analysis[1] | The Components of a Decision Problem 2 Decision Making under Uncertainty 3 Maximax Procedure 3 Maximin procedure 4 Equal Likelihood Procedure 5 Minimax Regret Procedure 5 Decision Making under Risk 6 Maximizing Expected Gain 6 Minimizing Expected Regret 7 The Expected Value of Perfect Information 8 Summary 17 Discussion Questions 18 Solved Problems 18 Problems 24 Key Terms 31 |The Components of a Decision Problem | The three basic components of a decision problem are the decision alternatives; the possible environments, conditions, or states of nature within which a decision is to be implemented; and the outcomes or payoffs that will result from each possible combination of alternatives and states of nature. The decision alternatives are those actions from among which the decision maker must choose. That is, they are the aspects of the decision situation over which the decision maker has direct control. The states of nature are those aspects of the decision situation over which the decision maker does not have direct control. They certainly include things over which there is no control, such as the weather, the general state of the economy, or actions taken by the national government. They may also include things which can be influenced to some extent but not completely. The market response to a new product (which is partly determined by...
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...Decision-making is the process of choosing one option among a variety of probable alternatives. The normative model of decision making, which means how decisions need to be made, is the skill that is needed when making a decision (Furby & Beyth-Marom, 1992). In fact, we make decisions in all matters of our personal life every day. However, some of us follow certain steps to avoid any future risk, others make decision spontaneously ignoring all the consequence. As a matter of fact, models, methodologies, and evaluating tools of decision-making were well explained by Professor Frear in the previous lecture. Decisions can be categorized in two main categories, programmed decision and un-programmed decisions. Programmed decision is option that already selected for a certain situation. It is more like “IF-THEN” statement, when a specific condition is satisfied, a planned action will occur. On the other hand, the un-programmed decision is the result that comes from the analysis of gathered information for a unique situation, evaluating of list of the options, and choosing the best option among them. Based of the un-programmed decision definition, the un-programmed decision requires a well-defined procedure to be made. This procedure or model must be clear and take the consideration all the parameters that may effects the resulted decision to avoid any missing that may lead to the failure. Therefore, the decision making model has been used by organizations and even individuals...
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...MARKETING DECISION support system Marketing decision support system (MDSS) A system used to manipulate a collection of data to interpret and explore potential business scenarios in order to make management decisions. Marketing decision support systems (MDSS) are considered by some businesses a key tool in gaining the edge over competitors. MDSS can be used to assist, rather than supersede, employee decision makers in the complicated scenarios which are common in marketing. Also MDSS can be defined as A coordinated collection of data, systems, and techniques with supporting software and hardware by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and the environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action An emerging trend in the realm of marketing has been the increased application of marketing decision support system (MDSS) technology to aid with decision-making (DM). Developing a sound and robust marketing strategy has never been an easy task. The success or failure of a company’s marketing effort depends on the interaction of numerous internal and external factors, combined with the knowledge and intuition of the decision-makers themselves. Marketing DM requires a comprehensive analysis of environments both inside and outside the firm. It requires a wide range of strategic information, including hard and soft information, and it requires managers to deal with issues that involve a high degree of uncertainty, subjectivity and ambiguity...
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...Decision Analysis: Decision analysis is a set of quantitative decision making techniques for decision situations in which uncertainty exists. Now, uncertainty can be classified into two ways/ types: 1. Subjective Probability: Subjective probability is the degree of belief to occurrence of the event. 2. Objective Probability: Objective probability is the probability which can be derived either based on historical occurrences or based on experimentation. Alternatively can be derived from statistical formula. Consistency requirement: If the probability of an event A is 0.65, then the probability of event B must be 0.35. i.e. P(A) + P(B) = 1 Mathematically, if A, B Є E Then A, B [pic] E A [pic]B = φ P(A) + P(B) = 1, which is called Consistency requirements. # Elements of Decision Problems: A decision problem is usually viewed as having four common elements 1. The alternative course of action: The alternative course of action involves two or more options or alternative course of action. One and only one of these alternatives must be selected. 2. The states of nature: The state of nature are factors that affect the outcome of a decision but are beyond control of the decision maker, such as rain, inflation, political development etc. 3. Payoff table: A payoff table is the combination for each possible combination of alternative course of action and state of nature...
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...Respond to the Growing Demand for Accountability as a Strategic Issue Healthcare organizations have always been held accountable for egregious errors and have had to respond to the demands of numerous regulatory agencies. But in the past decade, patients, payers, and others have joined the chorus of agents demanding greater performance accountability. Management decisions are now both more visible and more consequential. / http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/24/1/151.full Evolution of the use of evidence. For centuries, medical practice has been based mostly on clinical experience and judgment. Several recent developments have increased the promise and imperative of evidence-based decision making: tremendous growth in biomedical science and innovation; development of the evaluative clinical sciences; advances in communication and IT; and growing recognition that evidence-based decision making provides a framework for addressing health care policy challenges. emerging health information technology (HIT) revolution makes it possible to push evidence to the point of care and to identify where (and why) practice and evidence diverge. Fourth, reliable evidence can address the dual imperatives of controlling costs and improving quality. //////// http://www.hhnmag.com/hhnmag_app/jsp/articledisplay.jsp?dcrpath=HHNMAG/Article/data/11NOV2007/0711HHN_Outbox&domain=HHNMAG Evidence-based management in health care organizations is as crucial as evidence-based medicine: the latter...
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...Individual Supply and Demand Simulation ECO/365 Individual Supply and Demand Simulation In the University of Phoenix simulation (2003), the “applying supply and demand concepts” simulation made it very easy to understand how supply, demand and the equilibrium function together. The simulation was based on scenarios of renting two-bedroom apartments in a city called Atlantis. In the simulation, several factors are utilized to explain the distinction in demand, supply, price of rent, shortages, as well as surpluses of apartments for rent. It also provided an opportunity to learn the difference in movement along and shift curves of supply and demand to re-establish the equilibrium. The simulation was easy to use and the graphs helped understand the curve movements better. An analysis of why different situations occurred based on the different scenarios in the simulation will be discussed. The two major microeconomic concepts discussed in the simulation are Supply and demand. Colander (2010), “Microeconomics is the study of individual choice, and how that choice is influenced by economic forces” (p.15). In this simulation, rental rates are determined based on the changes in the supply and demand. The simulation presented changes with the Lintech move into Atlantis that initially creating higher demand for the apartments. However, the demanded decreased as people seem interested in buying detached homes. In response, Goodlife converted some units into condominium to sell that...
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...Conclusion……………………………………………………………19 7. Bibliography…………………………………………………………..20 2 SCM Research paper | Shreerang Datar Executive Summary: Surpassing the limits of business intelligence, artificial intelligence (AI) focuses on developing an algorithmic approach in decision making. This technology has come so far that inculcating human competencies like logic, reasoning, simulation and analytical thinking in a machine seems to be in reach. In the field of Supply Chain Management this technology is placing a strong foot in achieving creative optimization and automation in different supply chain processes. AI has found its applications in various SCM aspects which include Inventory management, Network design optimization, Logistics strategy formulation, demand forecasting, etc. It is designed to generate a step-wise mechanism for problem solving in which it defines the problem classifies it into various domains, formulates sub-problems, seeks for external information and develops solutions in a strategic way. For companies who are excessively dependent on employees to analyze business problems and give appropriate recommendations, AI systems can be as an alternative for many operational and in some cases tactical decision making. Strategic decision making is...
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