Premium Essay

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain

In:

Submitted By aaroncool31
Words 1560
Pages 7
2014/11/20

Why do we need inventory?

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Managing economics of scale in a SC


Cycle inventory (Ch 11)



Managing uncertainty in a SC


Safety inventory and risk polling (Ch 12, 13)

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Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain — Safety Inventory
Chapter 12

Wen‐Chih Chen
Dept. of Industrial Engineering & Management National Chiao Tung University, TAIWAN

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Safety Inventory


Safety inventory is carried to satisfy possible demand that exceeds the amount forecasted.

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Determining the Safety Stock Level

Safety inventory uncertainty uncertainty

Supply

Demand

Performance: availability (responsiveness), costs (efficiency)
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Key Decisions
 



What is the appropriate level of product availability? How much safety inventory is needed for the desired level of product availability? What actions can be taken to improve product availability while reducing safety inventory?

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Measuring Product Availability


Product fill rate (fr)


% of product demand satisfied from product in inventory % of orders filled from available inventory % of replenishment cycles that end with ALL customer demand being met



Order fill rate




Cycle service level (CSL)


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Measuring Demand Uncertainty
 

: avg. demand @ period i : standard deviation (標準差) of demand (forecast error) @ period i Avg. total demand ( ) and standard deviation ( ) during the lead time (gap between order released and received) L periods ( 1, … , ) are ⋯ 2
  



1

1 is the correlation coefficient between periods i and j . 0: positively correlated; 0: negatively correlated 0: independent
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Examples


Case 1:
Day 1 100 10 2 200 20

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