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Mantra of Investing

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Submitted By sumitchawla86
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Mantra for 2012: Keep it simple

About how investments will do in 2012, frankly, I don’t think it’s possible to make a prediction with any degree of precision. To anyone who is a knowledgeable and aware, and that would definitely include readers of this newspaper, the business and investment landscape would be familiar. Indian equities are looking decidedly downtrodden, but that’s not to say that they can’t be trodden upon even more. Declining corporate profits, worsening government finances, high interest rates and the constant overhang of further drama in Europe could well make things even more difficult.
Indeed, the mood d’jour among the investment and business community is one of extraordinary pessimism. However, it’s entirely possible—I would say even probable—that this pessimism has now moved from being a rational response to real problems to being a sort of an irrational melancholy—the opposite of Alan Greenspan’s much maligned irrational exuberance.
One can only hope that this pessimism does not become self-fulfilling prophecy, which can easily happen. Among business decision makers as well investors, a widespread expectation of bad news will itself become the cause of bad news. My guess is that sooner rather than later—certainly, long before 2012 ends—there will be a change of perspective. Investors will start paying more attention to reasonably-priced investments.
At this juncture, one should step back and take in India’s economic history in large, ten-year swathes. If you select any ten-year period in the last forty years, there has always been a vast improvement. Were things better in 1970 or 1980? The answer is obviously yes. 1990 or 2000? 1984 or 1994? 2000 or 2010? It’s the same answer every time. When you stand back and take a ten-year perspective, the forward surge of Indian economy and businesses is always obvious.
Certainly, some ten-year

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