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Mc Voting Behavior

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William Howell and Jon Rogowski (2013) examine the effects of war on voting behavior in Congress in an attempt to understand presidential influence in Congress and shifts in power toward the Executive. Questioning if war gives the president increased influence over members of Congress (MC), the authors hypothesize that MC will shift toward the president’s ideology at the outset of conflict, and shift away from that ideology upon war termination (Howell and Rogowski 2013, 151). The study attempts to fill gaps in the literature concerning presidential power and Congressional ideological stability, and finds evidence supporting the theory that war has measurable impact on MC voting behavior related to presidential ideology. The research undertakes …show more content…
The dependent variable is presidential influence in Congress, measured through shifts in roll-call votes. This is operationalized in terms of conservative or liberal voting ideologies, which must be assumed as directly related to the sitting president’s party affiliation. The measures are indeterminate, weakening validity. This is manifest in the test of the hypothesis. The authors state that one would expect to see a trend toward conservative roll-call voting at the outset of the war in Afghanistan (toward the Republican president). Bush is considered conservative in terms of social and foreign policy, but regarding fiscal policy he hardly stands out as a budget hawk. Might Truman be deemed conservative in terms of foreign policy? It is doubtful that ideologies and parties uniformly align across all times and cases in the study. As this study examines the data set related to all roll-call votes and presidential policy positions, it is easy to see that this may lead to errors in the interpretation of roll-call voting shifts. In addition, the periods used for collecting data for the roll-call votes used to measure liberal or conservative ideology are a reliability …show more content…
In the cases of Vietnam and Korea, the wars nominally (as measured by the authors) started and ended under presidents from different parties. This may point to factors, either together with war or alone, which may influence roll-call voting. For example, Truman followed a popular president from his own party, however, he was not elected to the office. He saw the successful conclusion of one (relatively popular) war, and the entry of the U.S. into another (unpopular) war. It is not likely that Truman shared the same degree of Congressional support or influence Roosevelt had, ceteris paribus. Additionally, the WWII bleeding of the country on two fronts, and resultant post-war demobilization, point to a war weariness that may account for MC voting shifts before, and at the onset of, the Korean War. The election of a very popular Republican president near the close of the Korean war muddies the waters still further. The Vietnam case is similar, moving from a relatively popular Democrat at the beginning of the conflict, and a largely unpopular Republican at the end. The authors make note of the Watergate scandal as a possible influence, but the measurement across administrations, long duration of unpopular wars, and party affiliation remain factors that need to be accounted for more meticulously to increase the validity and reliability of their

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