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Merck and Lab Pharmaceuticals Case Study

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Business description In 2000 Merck is a successful pharmaceutical company with a handful of drugs developed internally as well as in joint-ventures. Its success however linked to the exclusivity rights of its patents, which makes its investors concerned about the close expiration (2002) of several patents of its blockbusters, which would dry out future revenues. The long-term viability of the company depends thus on the ability to refresh its portfolio of patent-protected drugs in order to counterbalance the loss of sales resulting from the generics. The large financial capacity of Merck & Co enables the company to buy rights to test, manufacture and market compounds which were generated by smaller companies which lack the capital or want to avoid the risk; in case the FDA is successfully completed Merck & Co. profits by having bought the patent at a cheap price. In this context a young pharma company, LAB Pharmaceuticals has approached Merck offering them to license one of their compounds called Davanrik. The company is in an uncomfortable financial situation and hesitates to launch the testing of this promising Davanrik, a drug whose use could be dual for weight and depression problems. Davanrik has already successfully completed the preclinical testing and has to complete the approval phases 1 to 3 and the final FDA approval. LAB proposed to Merck to be in charge of the approval of Davanrik, its manufacture and its marketing and would in exchange pay to LAB an initial fee, royalty on sales, and additional payments as the different approval stages are completed. Because of the binomial decision feature to enter a particular stage and valuing its likely outcomes based on probabilities, we may evaluate the project’s overall profitability using a decision tree.
Decision tree We have built it by taking as a starting point the decisions before phase I, phase II and

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