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Mexico

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En el gobierno de Portillo se empezó con las dificultades para México y con ello un bajo crecimiento económico a comparación de lo que se vio en la época dorada de México. Un excesivo gasto de gobierno, seguido de un tipo de cambio fijo que dificultó el panorama económico de México, además que se tenía una deuda externa no manejable. Al entrar el gobierno de Miguel de la Marid la prioridad era disminuir o negociar el pago de la deuda extranjera, además de combatir las altas tasas de inflación que se presentaban dentro del país.

El primer paso fue la reestructuración de la deuda y esto se logró dejando a empresas extranjeras comprar la deuda y establecerse en el territorio mexicano, y con la compra de bonos de Estados Unidos, es decir, cambiando capital por capital y México únicamente pagaba los intereses de los bonos americanos; a esto posteriormente se le conoció como el Plan Brady. El segundo paso era disminuir la inflación y se logró apreciando la moneda, se cambio a un tipo de cambio “semifijo” y con el Pacto Solidaridad. Este último fue el de mayor impacto, pues se acordó con los sindicatos, empresas y junto con el gobierno a no subir los precios y también al entrar al TLCAN se hizo el objetivo de disminuir aun más la inflación.

Anteriormente México contaba con un proteccionismo que ayudaba de cierta manera a la productividad interna del país, además se contaban con varias empresas públicas, sin embargo, debido al alto porcentaje destinado al gasto de gobierno y a su ineficiencia de distribución de este gasto se decidió privatizar varias empresas con la finalidad de disminuir el gasto público dirigido a estas empresas. Generalmente la privatización llega a tener resultados positivos, pero no fue el caso de México, debido a que las empresas fueron vendidas a personas que nunca antes se habían dedicado al giro de la empresa que habían adquirido; por lo tanto la acción fue contra producente y el gobierno tuvo que rescatar las empresas y tuvo que realizar una reprivatización.

Se debió haber mejorar el capital humano y físico antes de haber entrado a un tratado de libre comercio, la jugada ponía en desventaja a México sobre EU y Canadá, debido a retrasos tecnológicos y una productividad baja. Es cierto que las exportaciones aumentaron en México, sin embargo las importaciones lo hicieron más que las exportaciones y estas exportaciones eran hechas por maquiladoras o empresas extranjeras. Además que el incremento de las importaciones debilitaron y acabaron con las empresas nacionales, ocasionando desempleo en el país.

La parte de las reformas que tuvieron un gran auge en el sexenio de Carlos Salinas fueron de ayuda al crecimiento del país, sin embargo se pudo haber conseguido mayores mejoras en los distintos ámbitos según la reforma. Una de las partes sobresalientes fue el apoyo al sector manufacturero en vez del petróleo. Esto es entendible debido a que puedes ser eficiente y producir mucho en el ámbito petrolero, pero tus precios están basados al mercado, para ser precisos a la OPEP. Es por ello que se debe incrementar la producción en los ámbitos (manufacturas) de lo que puedes controlar.

Se pudo haber empezado con el libre comercio con América Central, de esta manera México hubiera salido con mayor provecho y después ya con basta experiencia, mayor productividad y mejoras tecnológicas se hubiera buscado el TLCAN. Haber hecho la privatización de manera eficiente, es decir, no haber vendido las empresas a inexpertos de la materia, ni tampoco vendido empresas de la misma industria a un solo comprador, esto afectando los precios a los servicios debido a prácticas monopolísticas.

Siguiendo el lema de Friedman “Dejar que el perro mueva la cola, no la cola al perro”, es decir, un tipo de cambio flotante que se adecue a las condiciones del mercado, de tal manera de no perder reservas internacionales, ya que pensar que el tipo de cambio refleja las condiciones económicas del país, es absurdo e irónico, ya que lo que vale es el poder adquisitivo que este tiene dentro y fuera del país.

Otro de los pensamientos errados que se tenía en esa época era que al tener menor cantidad de sectores a quien destinar el gasto público iba a traer mayores ventajas, sin embargo, la destinación de los recursos se hace de manera obsoleta, además que la recaudación de los impuestos en México se presenta de manera ineficiente, esto en gran medida al comercio informal que se presenta en el país; quizás por ello se quiere presentar un impuesto al consumo (impuesto seguro) debido a la recaudación de aquellos que se encuentran en la informalidad y de los empresarios que realizan donaciones para deducir impuestos.

El libro llega apenas al primer año del sexenio de Felipe Calderón, su sexenio se basó en el combate al narcotráfico a lo que el auto denomino “La guerra contra el narcotráfico” que tuvo pérdidas más que ventajas, pues se desató una gran ola de violencia que conllevo a malas especulaciones sobre el país y una caída de la inversión extranjera directa. Ahora en el comienzo del sexenio del actual Presidente Peña Nieto, se tienden expectativas favorables a las aprobaciones de las reformas educativa, telecomunicaciones, energética, etc. La reforma educativa no tenía un gran panorama con la presencia del poderío de Gordillo, pero su aprehensión por mal manejo de los recursos han puesto otra mirada en el horizonte. En las telecomunicaciones se pretende incorporar más empresas en donde se pueda disputar la calidad y el precio del servicio, por desgracia el único participante hasta el momento es Carlos Slim, es decir, una expansión del mercado para el hombre más rico del mundo. En parte de la industrialización hasta el momento únicamente se planea incorporar líneas ferroviarias que facilitaran productividad y bajos costos para empresarios.

Brid, J. C., & Ros, J. (2010). Desarrollo y crecimiento en la economía mexicana: una perspectiva histórica. Mexico: Fondo de Cultura Económica.

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