Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Site and Area Review
Site Considerations Introduction The site is located on an undeveloped parcel of land on high-end Brickell Bay Drive, just south of SE 12th Street, on the east side by the bay. The available land is divided into two parcels. The hotel will be on the Southern portion of the side. There is no existing structure on the land, just a patch of grass, and it is fenced and closed off. There are hotels on both sides of the property and all along the same street. So it is assumed the area is well set up to provide the appropriate utilities services. The new hotel is planned for opening on January 1, 2015. Plans for the hotel include:  400 guest rooms  20,000 square feet of meeting and banquet space,  Two restaurants: one a Bistro type restaurant (casual or linen table service depending on the meal period) to open from 6 AM to midnight (100 seats); and a fine dining restaurant with 80 seats.  A bar/lounge with entertainment  A pool and outside patio area.  Two 1000 sq. ft. gift shoppes inside the hotel  2 – 1000 sq. ft. gift shoppes inside the hotel

The developer is planning to develop the hotel as an independent hotel, not as a brand. 1 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

The Brickell area has long been the financial center of the City of Miami. Located just south of Downtown Miami, Brickell Avenue, from which the area derives its name, is dotted with gleaming skyscrapers filled with international finance companies. Brickell hails back to the turn of the 20th century, when Mary Brickell along with her husband William, opened a trading post on the banks of the South Miami River, where goods were traded with the Seminole Indians. In 1908, William Brickell passed away and Mary Brickell developed the land alongside the bay and called it “Millionaire‟s Row.” In 1911, she developed Brickell Avenue and in 1912 sold 130 acres of land to James Deering, who later constructed Vizcaya. By January 1922, Mary Brickell began development on an area known as „The Roads” and eventually the Brickell family owned all of the coastal land between the Miami River and Coconut Grove. The area became so prestigious that it was soon one of the most exclusive neighborhoods in Miami. Today the mansions that characterized the Brickell area in the past have given way to office buildings, luxury hotels and condominiums. However, one thing has remained the same throughout, which is Mary Brickell‟s vision of the area being the center of commerce for Greater Miami. International firms such as Deloitte, Citibank, Banco Santander, Miami Today, Greenberg-Traurig, Chase, and many more. In addition, Brickell has the 2nd largest cluster of embassies and consulates in the county, behind Coral Gables. Brickell is Miami‟s Madison Avenue and Wall Street all roll into one. As a location within the urban core, the hotel will be in a T6 transect, according the new Miami21 form-based code. This allows for optimum heights and mixed use. Access Brickell Bay Avenue is a small local avenue which runs parallel to Brickell Avenue on the east side next to Biscayne Bay. Access to Brickell Ave and Brickell Bay Drive is relatively easy. Brickell Avenue is US Highway 1, which converts to Biscayne Boulevard north of Downtown, and US 1 south of Brickell, going all the way to Homestead, and one of the busiest. It is the oldest and principal road in Miami, running along Biscayne Bay. The Miami People Mover has 2 stops in the area and the Metrorail stop with a variety of buses, runs along NW 1st Street, which is three short blocks from Brickell Bay Drive. The Metrorail recently opened a direct connection to Miami International Airport. South Miami Avenue is only a block from Brickell. Just north is The Miami River, which runs from the bay inland about 3 blocks from the site. Across the Brickell Bridge on the north side is an exit from Interstate I-95 expressway into Brickell. There is another I-95 exit unto South Miami Avenue and Brickell on the south side, about 10-13 blocks from the site. Interstate I-95 runs to 836 Don Shula Expressway, and 112 Expressway, both which connect to the airport, about a half-hour for the whole ride. The Port of Miami, where all cruise ships coming to Miami dock, is in 2 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Downtown Miami, about a ten-fifteen minute ride by car. The area is also about a fifteen-twenty minute car ride to popular South Beach, going north to Downtown Miami and across the MacArthur Causeway. Perpendicular to Brickell and ending on the avenue are 8th Street and 12th Street (Coral Way). 8th Street is a busy, popular road, made famous by the Cuban exile community in the 70s‟s and its popular Calle Ocho Festival (8 Street Festival). The Cubans have moved on to suburbs, but the street remains Tamiami Trail, which runs all the way west to The Everglades. It is one of the primary roads going west to the suburbs, and it is still often used by motorists going home from working downtown, as is Brickell. Coral Way is another popular road often used by locals, and runs west towards The City of Coral Gables and the western suburbs. Visibility The area is probably the most visible in Downtown Miami. The hotel will be on the bay, and can be seen across the bay from downtown and popular South Beach. Brickell Bay Drive is dotted with international finance office buildings on the Brickell side, on the bay side a row of new hotels and condominiums have sprung in recent years, and have held up well, in spite of the market crash. The plentiful supply of office buildings, international embassies, hotels and condos makes the area a key destination for tourists of all types, both corporate and leisure. Brickell has long been an area of principally corporate tourism, now changing to include leisure-based tourism and residential. Affluence is seen everywhere along Brickell Financial District. Aesthetic Attributes The area contains Miami‟s most glittering skyscrapers, and at least for the foreseeable future, will continue to be Miami‟s international finance center. The area is considered one of the most beautiful in the city. Brickell Avenue is lined up with trees. The sidewalks are clean and well maintained. The development will add to the growing skyline of the area. Demand Generators/Neighborhood Attractions Recently, the Brickell area has been transitioning from primarily office buildings to include a mixed-use residential and ground-level retail, with condos and hotels springing along Brickell and on Brickell Bay Avenue. On the north side of Brickell, running parallel to it, is South Miami Avenue, where a fairly recent development called Mary Brickell Village has sprung, following the principles of walkability sponsored by the New Urbanism and the new Miami21 form-based code. The principles emphasized a more urban form with shorter blocks, development right up to line of the sidewalk, and front store façade that is attractive. The Shops at Mary Brickell Village offer an eclectic mix of upscale dining, shopping and 3 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

entertainment options. The center, designed around a “village-like” setting with lush vegetation, water features and entertainment venues offers 195,000 square feet of retail space, a 800 space parking garage and two public plazas surrounded by mature oak and mahogany trees. Offering everything from Mexican to Asian, Seafood to Italian Cuisine, The Shops at Mary Brickell Village is a dining Mecca that offers over 10 eateries. The village runs from 8 Street to 12th Street (Coral Way), and encompasses the entire block from South Miami Avenue to NW 1st Avenue. There are local shops on 9th Street and 10th Street from S. Miami to 1st Avenue, on the bottom floor of newly developed condos. Publix is on NW 1st Avenue. Mary Brickell Village has become one of the latest hot spots for nightlife in Miami-Dade County, attracting the fickle young crowd to an area that used to be essentially dead once the offices cleared after 6pm and everyone left for the suburbs. Tourists can walk from Brickell Bay Avenue a short 3-5 minutes, two blocks (Brickell also has very short, walkable blocks that can be easily traverse by pedestrians), across Brickell and into South Miami Avenue and the Village. SE 12th Street and Brickell Bay Drive area has a Walk Score of 89. Most errands can be done by foot. The entire Brickell area has an 82 walk score. By comparison, New York has a walk score of 85, San Francisco 84. Beyond South Miami Avenue and Mary Brickell Village, immediately west is Little Havana. Some gentrification was spilling over the area before The Great Recession hit. The City of Miami had plans to renovate all sidewalks and streets, but that pretty much stopped after the crash. The area is not as affluent as Brickell, and the demographics have dramatically changed since the Cubans first arrived there in the 60s and 70s, only to leave for the „burbs in the late 70s and 80s. But the area still contains some fine Latin restaurants if you know where to go. Just north of the aforementioned Brickell Bridge is Downtown Miami with many local shops and some restaurants as well. The James L. Knight International Center, a contemporary entertainment and convention complex, is north of the Miami River. On the east side of Biscayne Boulevard (Brickell Avenue turns into Biscayne in Downtown Miami) is Bayfront Park, with Bayside Festival Marketplace and north of it, American Airlines Arena, where the national basketball champions, The Miami Heat, play. There is construction under way for a museum on the grounds of Bayfront Park north of the arena. Beyond the AAA is the Adrienne Arscht Center Complex on Biscayne Boulevard, which offers ballet and opera performances. The above mentioned areas can be access by walking, by a short distance on busses running on Brickell Avenue and NW 1st Street, or by the 4 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Miami Metro Mover. Summary and Conclusion As noted above, the site is located within the Miami Central Business District, an area which continues to grow despite the Recession. As will be noted below, there are plans in the works for more developments in the Brickell area that will add to the list of attractions. As an up and coming mixed-use (corporate, residential, retail) area, it is well suited for a contemporary high end development with a variety of attractive features that will bring a wide range of tourists. Miami reflects the growing trend among cities to revitalize downtown centers through urban residential development. Economic and Demographic Analysis Overview Over the past 20 years, the cities in the Sun Belt has benefited from unprecedented growth. The Belt has seen substantial population growth since the 1960s due to an influx of immigrants, both legal and illegal, a surge in retiring baby boomers, and the attractiveness of a mild winter climate. That growth came almost to a full stop after The Great Recession. As of 2005 the U.S. Census Bureau projected that approximately 88% of the U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2030 will occur in the Sun Belt. California, Texas, and Florida are each expected to add more than 12 million people during that time, which will make them, by far, the most populous states in America. Events leading up to and including the 20082009 recession have led many to question whether growth projections for the Sun Belt have been overstated. The economic bubble has been more acute in the Sun Belt than any other area of the US. The traditional lure of cheaper labor has eroded after outsourcing to other countries, first to Latin America, then to India and China. Back office jobs in the suburbs have also stalled and real estate trends have turn towards a return to city centers as the engine for growth. The City of Miami has responded by stressing its tourism and hospitality industries, and by revitalizing its downtown. In some ways, this has led to a bifurcated class system, of wealthy tourists and residents, and a lower middle class and poor. The middle class in Miami still exists, but it is out in the suburbs, and there is evidence that income has stalled, and job opportunities have not caught up with population growth. Overall, tourism has recovered in Miami better than other areas. Population The following chart is a year chart of population trends in Miami-Dade. 5 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review
P opulat ion

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Miami Dade 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CAGR 2005 - 2011 2,379,818 2,402,208 2,428,632 2,455,347 2,471,804 2,496,435 2,554,766 1.19%

S t at e of FL 17,789,864 18,089,889 18,251,243 18,328,340 18,537,969 18,801,310 19,057,542 1.15%

Unit ed S t at es 288,378,137 299,398,485 301,621,159 304,059,728 307,006,556 308,745,538 311,591,917 1.30%

Compound Annual Growth (CAGR)

Source: US Census Bureau From the chart we can see that from 2005 till 2011, it has a sustained and stable growth for the overall population. In 2005, the total population of Miami-Dade was 2,379,818 and in a six year period it grew to 2,554,766, a 1.19 % increase from the previous year. Compared with Florida whose CAGR was 1.15 %, Miami-Dade is growing a little faster. It reflects the environment of Miami-Dade becoming more urbanized, both culturally and economically, thus more people are willing to stay here and the population grows.

Miami Dade
2,600,000 2,550,000 2,500,000 2,450,000 2,400,000 2,350,000 2,300,000 2,250,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Miami Dade

And from this chart it gives us a clear view of the trend of population increase of Miami-Dade these seven years. We can see that in recent years growth rate increase because from 2010 to 2011, the line becomes more abrupt, in spite of the Recession. So we forecast that the population of Miami-Dade will break through 2,600,000 in 2012. Personal Income The following two charts reflect the personal income and per capita personal income from 2005 to 2010. The Miami-Dade data of 2011 has not been reported by the government yet. 6 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

P ers onal Inc ome Miami Dade 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) CAGR 2005 - 2010 CAGR 2005 - 2011 3.39% 2.60% 2.95% 3.35% 3.64% $77,372,602 $85,191,090 $88,148,296 $90,978,382 $87,767,716 $91,410,768 S t at e of FL $633,192,675 $690,268,109 $721,051,518 $740,675,674 $697,273,654 $719,828,478 $753,982,674 Unit ed S t at es $10,476,669,000 $11,256,516,000 $11,900,562,000 $12,451,660,000 $11,916,773,000 $12,353,577,000 $12,981,740,840

Note: Values are expressed in millions of dollars and as constant 2005 dollars Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research All of them had a sharp decrease from 2008 to 2009, certainly due to the financial crisis of 2008. However after that the economy rises again after the steady fall; 2010 surpassed 2008 in income. From the CAGR 2005 to 2012 we can see that Miami-Dade CAGR is 3.39 % and United States CAGR is 3.35 %, which is lower than Miami-Dade. Also compared with the CAGR of Florida, we know that Miami-Dade exceeds the average level of personal income increase.

Miami Dade
$95,000,000 $90,000,000 $85,000,000 $80,000,000
$75,000,000

$70,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Miami Dade

The reason that Miami-Dade can have such a good income growth is that the government aid accounts for 23 cents of every dollar of income in Miami-Dade. It helped keep the recession from getting worse (Source: MiamiHerald Business Section, April 25, 2012). Another reason is that tourists, especially from Brazil, have bought residential condos and taken partial residence in the county. 7 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review
P er Capit a P ers onal Inc ome

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Miami Dade 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) CAGR 2005 - 2010 CAGR 2005 - 2011 2.40% $32,429 $35,409 $36,492 $37,346 $35,621 $36,520

S t at e of FL $35,489 $37,996 $39,256 $39,978 $37,382 $38,210 $39,563 1.49% 1.83%

Unit ed S t at es $35,452 $37,725 $39,506 $40,947 $38,846 $39,937 $41,663 2.41% 2.73%

Note: Values are expressed in millions of dollars and as constant 2005 dollars Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research
$140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000
$0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

United States State of FL Miami Dade

The above two charts illustrate the per capita personal income. It is more convenient to compare Miami-Dade and Florida with The United States. During these 6 year period, 2008 is the topmost, then the recovery begins slowly in 2009. From the trend between 2009 and 2010, we predict that it will exceed 2008 and increase steadily at a rate around 2.40 %, which is close to the national average. Retail Sales Trends Retail was affected by the downturn just like much everything else. Total retail sales is going up after the dip in 2009.

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Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Evidence suggests Consumer Confidence is turning. The MiamiHerald reports Americans are more confident in the economy than seven months ago (Source: MiamiHerald, business Section, September 25, 2012. But overall, the national confidence is holding steady but not growing by much. This is probably due to consumers waiting after the election results.

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Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Retail Sales decreased slightly after a steady increase. So far, retail has not come back up completely, except in certain sectors such as recreation. Employment After the economic downturn in the past few years Miami-Dade‟s economic recovery has been faster than expected. There are many signs that show the Miami-Dade‟s economy is on the upswing: the businesses are starting up, housing price is on an upswing, and what‟s more important is we can obviously find the decrease of the unemployment rate in Miami-Dade. Following is the employment analysis in Miami-Dade County. Researching the employment distribution in Miami-Dade is a good way to help us understand the current status of the local economy. Unemployment rate Since Miami-Dade‟s struggle with unemployment during the crisis, the unemployment rate has been decreasing in the past year (Figure: 1-1). Although Florida‟s unemployment rate is still higher than the state and the nation, Miami-Dade‟s unemployment rate dropped below 10 % in January 2012 for the first time since early in 2009. Based on Miami-Dade‟s unemployment rate, more than 135,000 workers were currently receiving unemployment benefits. However, Miami leads the State of Florida in job growth, and Florida has led the nation in the creation of new jobs for more than 5 years. Unemployment Rate in Miami-Dade County, FL

Figure: 1-1 Source: U.S. Department of labor: Bureau of Labor Statics 10 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Recently, Florida‟s largest local economy has enjoyed an expanding labor pool. The latest employment numbers show Miami-Dade gained both jobs and job seekers in May 2012 which means Miami-Dade‟s labor force is moving in right direction.(Figure: 1-2) Of course, new job positions are not enough to fix the worse hiring crisis in decades. Not enough available positions and increasing population has left Miami-Dade with an unemployment rate that is higher that the unemployment rate in United States. (Figure: 1-3) The Job Seekers and the Employed in Miami-Dade

Figure: 1-2 Source: MiamiHerald.com Unemployment Rate Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 MiamiFlorida United Dade States 4.6 3.8 5.1 4.1 3.3 4.6 4.2 4 4.6 6.3 6.2 5.8 11.3 10.2 9.3 12.4 11.5 9.6 11.3 10.5 8.9 Figure: 1-3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Statistics 11 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

The employment statistics below show the number of employees by sectors in Miami-Dade and the total employees in the past few years. We can obviously see that due to the economic downturn, the number of employees in Miami-Dade has decreased a lot from 2007 to 2010. In 2011, the economy began to recover and the number of the employees began to increase. It is projected the number of the employees will keep increasing in the following year. Miami-Dade Number of Paid Employees by Sectors Data Series Agriculture 2005 799 2006 249 2007 257 2008 327 2009 261 2010 253 2011 248 CAG R 17.72 % 10.68 % 2.90% 3.62% 4.22% 1.40% 0.38% 0.28% 3.49% 0.65% 2.71% 0.24%

Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises

1,073 4,710 38,417 46,621 67,342

1,009 4,478 41,092 45,168 68,624

970 4,712 45,324 43,711 69,847 124,63 1 51,820 21,648 48,219 22,763

847 5,017 40,647 42,356 70,470 121,47 2 52,612 21,079 47,983 20,867

540 5,501 30,851 34,388 64,216 112,58 4 49,351 20,373 41,778 19,030

517 5,573 27,260 31,369 61,868 115,58 6 49,728 18,774 42,156 18,234

545 5,592 30,785 35,986 61,898 115,48 8 50,335 17,743 45,256 19,897

118,182 125,025 51,193 21,956 47,057 23,462 51,927 21,454 48,776 23,910

60,355

64,405

63,023

61,037

58,408

56,761

61,235

17,005

17,578

18,247

17,261

14,427

15,295

17,453 12

0.43%

Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Administrative and support Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodati on and Food Service Others Total of all sectors

76,326 28,162

72,300 27,703

74,022 28,091 116,58 7

69,995 28,540 119,40 7

65,951 28,595 122,41 7

63,714 29,421 124,60 0

67,456 30,254 133,43 2

2.04% 1.20% 2.63%

114,198 112,674

12,553

13,797

11,962

11,536

11,469

11,593

12,456

0.13%

89,680 38,989

88,189 40,202

90,662 37,148

95,294 36,486

93,358 34,771

95,159 34,248 802,10 9

96,743 34,277 837,07 9

1.27% 2.12% 0.41%

858,080 868,560

873,64 863,23 808,26 4 3 9 Figure: 1-4 Source: United States Census Bureau

The top five sectors with the largest number of employment in MiamiDade are: whole sale trade, retail trade, administrative and support, health care and social assistance as well as accommodation and food. These main five industries play important roles of the economic development of the area. Figure: 1-4 shows the major employers in MiamiDade County. In the past few years most of the sectors showed employee decline because of the economic downturn. But some industries such as utilities, professional and technical services, management of companies and enterprises, educational services, health care and social assistance as well as accommodation and food service have positive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). This is considered a good impact by these industries in Miami-Dade. Even though the Compound Annual Growth Rates of those sectors are not very high, they had stable growth which indicates these industries have steady positive growth in Miami-Dade. The top three sectors with the greatest Compound Annual Growth Rate are utilities (2.9%), health care and social assistance (2.63%) and accommodation and food service (1.27%). These three industries had greater growth than the others and they will get more opportunities for growth in the future.

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Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Major Employers in Miami-Dade County Top Private Employers Company University of Miami Baptist Health South Florida Publix Super Market American Airlines Precision Response Corporation 5,000 Top Public Employers Miami-Dade County Public School Miami-Dade County Federal Government Florida State Government Jackson Health System Top Financial Firms Wachoiva, A wells Fargo Co. Bank of America Bank United Regions Bank Ocean Bank Top Telecommunications Firms AT&T MasTec, Inc. Discovery Networks Lation America NO. of Employees 16,000 13,376 10,800 9,000 5,000 NO. of Employees 48,571 29,000 19,500 17,100 12,571 NO. of Employees 2,179 2,000 750 700 633 NO. of Employees 3,100 500 385

Top Aviation Firms NO. of Employees American Airlines 9,000 Federal Express 1,134 Eulen America 1,000 Figure: 1-5 Source: The Beacon Council.com Blue Print of the Miami-Dade Count Employment From all the tables above we can find out most of the industries‟ number of employers increased and the economy has begun the recovery. From the development tendency of the economy of Miami-Dade we can anticipate the number of employees in different industries will keep increasing and the unemployment rate will decrease. The government will try their best to increase the economic development. Many of the leaders in the county of Miami-Dade completed a blue print that will create nearly 75,000 jobs in the time frame of 5 years. In the blue book there are five industries that were pointed for job creation, the hospitality industry, aviation industry, information technology industry, finance industry and 14 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

trade industry. This provides a great opportunity to develop a hospitality venue in Miami-Dade. Real Estate/Office Space Trends Brickell Avenue Office Space Statistics Overall Inventory Vacancy Vacancy Rate 5,632,726 704,091 12.50% 5,867,646 595,566 10.15% 5,823,643 681,366 11.70% 5,887,643 912,585 15.50% 6,454,046 1,294,036 20.05% 7,063,214 1,515,059 21.45% 4.63% 16.56% 11.40% Class A Rental Rate $36.14 $40.71 $46.03 $42.69 $42.68 $43.01 3.54%

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CAGR 2006-2011

Basic Information: Brickell Avenue is Miami‟s central financial district, a part of the Central Business District, which is characterized by a high density, well organized core within the largest city of a given metropolitan statistical area. There are many banks, real estate companies, trust companies and luxury hotels and condos located here. Buildings here are well located (seascape and central financial district) and command the highest rents or sales prices compared to other areas. Based on the statistics provided by Cushman & Wakefield Inc., Brickell Avenue office space has already reached total 7,063,214 square feet in year 2011, increasing 1,430,488 square feet compared with year 2006, which total is 5,632,726. The compound annual growth rate is 4.64% from 2006 to 2011. From 2006 to 2008, no new building was completed for using in this area. Before the United States subprime crisis, from 2006 to first half of 2007, everything seemed good, office market maintained its position as one of the most dynamic and exciting markets in South Florida. Sales and leasing activity remained strong. Several new office developments either were announced or started construction in the CBD. Class A rental rate increased almost $4 per square foot and overall vacancy rate decreased for 2.5%. But from third quarter 2007 after the United States subprime crisis, vacancy space kept increasing with 16.56% compound annual growth rate. From 2008 to 2011, vacancy space kept increasing about 300,000 square feet every year as a result of new construction and a lack of tenant demand. Overall rental rate increased to 21.45% in 2011 and it is almost twice as rate in 2006, 12.5%. Because the increasing overall vacancy rate, after reaching the peak $46.03, Class A rental rate fell down. Trends: 15 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

Class A Rental Rate V.S.Overall Vacancy Rate Class A Rental Rate $50.00 $40.00 Overall Vacancy Rate 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2006 2007 2008 Year 2009 2010 2011

psf/yr

$30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00

Inventory V.S. Vacancy
Inventory Vacancy

8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 sf 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

From Marketbeat Snapshot Report by Cushman & Wakefield Inc., MiamiDade County office market maintains its position as one of the most dynamic and exciting markets in South Florida, its favorable location for domestic and foreign companies in 2006. Miami-Dade County began 2007 with the continuing energy that made South Florida a prime location for office development, Brickell Avenue continued to contain some of the most desired office space in the Miami market, a fact that is reflected in its class A average rental rate, which broke the $40.00 per sq. ft. mark for the first time over the past year. Miami economic climate has changed in 2008, after several years of strong economic performance a slowdown was felt. Market vacancy increased as a result of new construction and a 16 Thunderbird Consulting Group

Site and Area Review

Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

lack of tenant demand and reached the highest rate reported in six years in 2009. Inventory in the Brickell Avenue grew by 585,000 sq. ft. with the completion of 1450 Brickell Avenue; office market experienced an increase in vacancy rate in 2010. We can know that in the top 10 buildings in Downtown Miami & Brickell area with highest vacancy rates, there were Eight belonging to Brickell Avenue. With unemployment rates decreasing and companies gaining confidence in the recovery economy, a general outlook for the office market is finally looking brighter in 2011.

Of all Florida rental rates, Miami is the highest. Occupancy rate has also increase substantially. While Miami‟s historical Rent & Occupancy has declined up to 2009, it has turned and is now increasing. Condos are filled up to 80% occupancy in the Downtown area.

Tourism in Brickell is changing from primarily corporate business and 17 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

diplomatic business to include convention and leisure tourists. The development of new condos in the area has seen an influx of wealthy buyers, particularly from Brazil and Argentina. Many new hotels have developed along Brickell Bay Avenue with a mixed-use of residential and guest rooms. The resulting influx has created a year-round traffic of leisure tourists that has replaced the former influx that occurred only in winter months. Mary Brickell Village also contains new residences right behind it. Brickell CitiCentre is a huge dual usage (residential & commercial) project that will cover an area of four-blocks and includes bridges and covered walkways connecting the different areas, set to open in 2014. Besides the regular assortment of retail stores, the Brickell CitiCentre will also include restaurants, a hotel, office suites, and apartments or condominiums. This huge building development has broken ground already and is seen as an economically important project as it will produce an estimated 1,700 jobs during the building process and 3,800 jobs after it has been completed. This project is also set to rival Rockefeller Center and the Embarcadero Center, and is one of the biggest LEED projects currently in the country. The project is being developed by Hong Kong based Swire Properties. The CitiCentre will consist of over 4,600,000 square feet (430,000 m2). All elements of the project except for the 634 foot office tower are under construction (Brickell CitiCentre III, height 808 ft., Floors 76 ; Brickell CitiCentre II height 769 ft., Floors 72 and Brickell CitiCentre I, height 740 ft. Floors 69) as of September 2012. Miami-based Architectonica is the architect. The complex was set to be built at the corner of South Miami Avenue and Tenth Street, in the western Brickell Financial District of Miami. The Tenth Street Metro Station is one block west of the complex. On June 15, 2011 the project was revived by Swire Properties after left for dead following the market crash, and the complex is planned to consist of four towers. Two additional lots were bought by Swire in 2011 (Brickell Tennis Club and Eastern National Bank building) on 8 Street in order to qualify for Special Area Plan zoning, making the entire development site over 9 acres (36,422 m2), with the additions also giving the project direct access to the Eighth Street Metromover Station. The project will feature many unique qualities such as two levels of underground parking, covered sidewalks, and interconnectivity between all the buildings. This has earned it its "city within a city" nickname. Swire is not targeting an ultra-luxury audience but a more contemporary, upper-moderate demographic. The 18 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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project also hopes to find unique specialty niches like its wellness center office building targeting medical tourism. Brickell CitiCentre‟s goal is to keep Miami‟s new urban residents from getting in their cars and driving to the Miami Beach, Dadeland or Aventura areas.

The existing Metromover station will be part of the project, dropping passengers on the third level amid dining and entertainment, and unto the streets of Mary Brickell Village. The station will connect tourists in Downtown Miami to Brickell, bringing a wider variety of shoppers and customer to the area. This is important because the Brickell Bridge and the adjacent Miami Avenue bridge remain unfriendly to pedestrians who want to crossover from Downtown. A movement is under way to expand the extra-wide sidewalks being designed to include the Miami Avenue bridge.

The project is to provide ground-level retail, extra-wide sidewalks and urban plazas. The key to this project, as far as adjacent tenants like me are concerned, is that it contains a walking mall that has entrances right on 8 Street, in front of Brickell Marketplace. So the project will feel like it merges out into and is part of the street, as pictured above. Neighborhood shops and cafes are expected to merge with the larger retailers and restaurants. Just west of 12th Street, Jorge Perez‟ Related Group already has 92 % of units under reservation for its planned Millecento Residences just a few 19 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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blocks south on South Miami Avenue. A Sigafredo Restaurant is already there across the street, along with an Irish Pub, and a steakhouse. The Brickell Village walkable area will be extended all the way to 14th Street, right before hitting the residential mansions that are left just south along South Miami Avenue. The whole area is geared to triple in local traffic and become a bigger regional attraction due to these developments.

Outlook: International trade will remain a bright spot throughout the year as South American companies seek to establish a presence in the U.S. or expand as a result of increased trade in the county‟s airport and seaport. The forecast for the remainder of the year is one of guarded optimism based on financial market activity, decreasing unemployment rates and residential markets leveling out. However, the general consensus is that 2012 will be a year of slow-to-moderate growth. Convention Related Statistics Basic Information As the global economy boomed from 2004 to 2007, meeting professionals saw moderate to dramatic growth in all the industry‟s leading indicators, including overall attendance, planner budgets, spend per meeting and the number and length of meetings. However, with the onset of the 2007 recession, meeting planner optimism turned to concern that escalated when media and public attention mistakenly focused on business travel as an indulgence. As presented, each indicator in the chart has shown growth in recent years, following sharp declines in 2008 and 2009. According to Meeting Professionals International (MPI‟s) FutureWatch 2011, the majority of meeting professionals predict budget cuts, more stringent 20 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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budget controls, improved operating efficiencies, slight staff reduction, closer attention to value and return on investment, and a general orientation toward doing more with less in the coming year.

Trends: In a research conducted by CRL that targeted national convention and tradeshow event planners (below), survey respondents were asked to identify which of several convention center and destination features are expected to increase in importance in the future. As presented, the need for breakout meeting rooms was viewed as the most pressing need for hosting future events, with an average score of 4.7 (on a scale with 0 being the least important and “5” being the most). Following the breakout rooms in importance was the need for free wireless internet and more attractions within the walkable area surrounding the host facility. Interest in a walkable environment surrounding a center has increased significantly over the past five to ten years. Adequately addressing this characteristic will have a significant impact on the viability of potential future Miami conference center project sites. It seems that hotels with large convention space match customers‟ expectation.

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According to the Professional Convention Management Association 2011 Meetings Market Survey, 50% of meeting planners prefer a downtown center location to other destination types. 13% prefer resort facilities, with the remainder preferring suburban hotels, airport hotels and other such venues. These data provide support for the viability of our hotel in CBD.

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Hotel Development Status Miami-Dade County Convention Development Tax 2008-2011 ｡｡ 2008 2009 2010 2011 January 5,108,573 4,385,883 4,782,654 February 5,531,072 4,360,086 5,866,303 March 5,924,956 4,735,094 5,767,345 April 4,503,534 3,814,203 4,079,671 May 3,878,638 3,246,934 3,810,437 June 2,995,398 2,470,898 2,920,674 July 3,153,228 2,935,984 3,283,380 August 3,209,142 2,664,254 2,859,205 September 2,332,737 2,221,827 2,655,084 October 2,991,595 2,788,964 3,122,138 November 3,341,404 3,263,536 3,816,358 December 4,264,695 4,058,697 4,803,072 Total 31,095,399 25,949,082 30,510,464 CAGR 20082011 3.63% Source: Dade County Tax Collectors Department 4,784,631 5,826,004 6,556,357 5,598,117 4,354,102 3,423,295 4,063,084 3,697,810 3,139,913 4,057,218 5,165,822 5,015,368 34,605,590

Miami-Dade County Convention Development Tax 2008-2011
2008 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 2009 2010 2011

Dollar

4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0

Convention Development Tax is a 3% tax on a hotel room rate collected in all hotels exclusive of Bal Harbor and Surfside. So it is a data that can 23 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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Ja nu a Fe ry br ua ry M ar ch A pr il

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Proposed Hotel on Brickell Bay Drive, Miami, FL

reflect hotel development status. From the chart, we can know that after a sharp decline in 2009, the hospitality industry has slowly recovered from the economic recession. Airport Statistics and Plans for Expansion The site is not far away from major airports serving in South Florida. It located 27.3 miles to Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL), and 9.6 miles to Miami International Airport (MIA). Miami International Airport Miami International Airport (MIA) is the asset and property of the MiamiDade County government. MIA is surrounded by the cities of Kendall, Doral, Hialeah, Aventura, Miami Springs, the Village of Virginia Gardens, the City of Miami. MIA is operated by the Miami-Dade Aviation Department. It was established in year 1928. MIA is one of the leading international passenger and freight airports in the world and is the largest portal for Caribbean and Latin America. MIA occupied 3,230 acres of land. The airport is very close to downtown Miami. MIA is only 8 miles northeast of Miami downtown. MIA's terminal is being expanded to more than seven million square feet through a capital improvement program scheduled for final completion in 2013. Enplaned Passenger Data Miami International Airport Year Internation Domesti Total %CHG over last year al c 2000 8,084,010 8,780,841 16,864,851 -0.82% 2001 7,571,006 8,220,815 15,791,821 -5.81% 2002 7,095,865 7,956,683 15,052,548 -5.08% 2003 6,927,354 7,889,363 14,816,717 -1.55% 2004 7,049,602 8,036,981 15,086,583 1.92% 2005 7,187,120 8,327,521 15,514,641 2.80% 2006 7,455,498 8,811,650 16,267,148 4.92% 2007 7,863,890 9,025,732 16,889,622 3.71% 2008 8,149,108 8,892,542 17,041,650 0.96% 2009 8,057,475 8,961,413 17,018,888 -0.52% 2010 8,552,895 9,432,074 17,984,969 5.35% 2011 9,283,867 9,972,896 19,256,763 7.73% CAGR‟000.57% 0.72% 0.65% 10 Source: http://www.miami-airport.com/airport_stats.asp Looking through the table above, there was a dramatic drop in total numbers of passengers from year 2000 to year 2003. There was a percentage decrease from 2000 to 2003 of 13.26%; however, a dramatic 24 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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percentage increase from year 2004 to 2011, except for a small scale decrease in year 2009. The increase in number of passengers from year 2004 means the MIA was back in business and gained more profit. The passenger amount decreasing in year 2008 due to the economic downturn but it‟s getting increase since year 2009. Port of Miami To continue its position as a world-class facility, Miami is continuously preparing for the next generation of cruise vessels. An ambitious capital improvement program is currently underway. A tunnel is being excavated under MacArthur Causeway for trucks exporting and bringing in goods, without interrupting traffic. Already completed are two ultra-modern cruise terminals. Passenger Terminals D and E are some of the most modern cruise facilities in the world. Each have among their special design features and amenities a VIP lounge, a high-tech security screening facility for embarkation, airline counters and an airport-style conveyor baggage system. With prices to fit all budgets, the Port of Miami offers a choice of popular 3-, 4-, 5-, 7-, 8-, 9-, 10-, and 11-day cruises as well as sailings of longer duration. Ports of call easily reached from Miami extended from the Bahamas to the Eastern and Western Caribbean, Mexico, Key West, South America and further. Cruise lines include Azamara Cruise Lines, Carnival Cruise Lines, Celebrity Cruises, Crystal Cruises, Costa Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Royal Caribbean International and Oceania Cruises. Port Statistics Year Passengers %Change 1999 3,112,355 5% 2000 3,364,643 8.1% 2001 3,391,091 0.8% 2002 3,642,990 7.4% 2003 3,960,614 8.7% 2004 3,499,584 -11.6% 2005 3,605,201 3.0% 2006 3,731,459 3.5% 2007 3,787,410 1.5% 2008 4,137,531 9.2% 2009 4,110,100 -0.7% 2010 4,150,000 0.9% CAGR‟99-10 2.92% Source: http://www.miamidade.gov/portofmiami/businessport-statistics.asp 25 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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Looking through the table above, there was a dramatic drop in total numbers of passengers of year 2004. The total trend is increasing nearly every year, except for year 2004 and year 2009. The 9.11 event did not influenced cruise lines at all in year 2002. The economic downturn in 2008 slightly impacted to cruise line industry in year 2009. But in 2010, there is a recovery to now almost 1%. Visitor Statistics Looking through the three charts below, both the international and domestic visitor amount of year 2012 is higher than 2011. Miami is an exceptional getaway any time of year. Typically, when more northerly U.S. states get cold, Miami tourism heats up, the beaches are as welcoming in December as they are in July. Visitors can choose the energy of peak season with its throngs of travelers; they can also choose low season for the cheapest fares and emptier beaches. There was a dramatic drop in total numbers of visitors at September of the two years, because Miami‟s shoulder tourism season runs from June to September. There was an obvious increase in total numbers of visitors at March of year 2011 and 2012, because Miami‟s peak tourism season runs from January through April.

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Conclusion The site is in a highly visible and accessible area south of Downtown Miami in its Central Business District. The Brickell area is one of the most exclusive areas in Miami-Dade County. It is home to thousands of business offices, and the historical center of international finance in Miami. The avenue is one of the most aesthetically beautiful avenues in the city, and it well known beyond Miami-Dade County and Florida. Recent developments such as Mary Brickell Village, residential condos, and the upcoming Brickell CitiCentre promise to bring more affluence and a variety of tourists and residents to the area, increasing its value. Brickell area is close to all major attractions in Downtown Miami, making it an ideal location for 27 Thunderbird Consulting Group

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tourism and entertainment. Tourists from Brazil and Latin America have made it a year round trend for hotel lodging. International trade remains a bright spot throughout the year as South American companies seek to establish a presence in the U.S. or expand. Convention trends are holding steady, but there is a preference for downtown centers, up to 50%. After dipping, visitors statistics in Miami saw an increase, though it is not yet up to previous levels. It is anticipated it will continue to trend upwards as the national economy recovers. Rental rates continue to be relatively high in the area, and occupancy rates are inching upwards. Condos are up to 80% occupancy. This particular development, situated in the urban core, has an opportunity to take advantage of the redevelopment trends in the area. Indeed, the only area that is seeing development in Miami-Dade County is the Central Business District, of which Brickell is its most distinct, luxurious location. Overall, there is cautious optimism for this development as trends will continue to be positive, depending on the overall trend in the national economy.

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