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Netflix

Rebecca Zent

Managerial Finance

December 15, 2015

Company & Industry Overview
Netflix is the world’s leading Internet television network with over 69 million members in over 60 countries enjoying more than 100 million hours of TV shows and movies per day, including original series, documentaries and feature films. Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on nearly any Internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, all without commercials or commitments.
The DVD-by-mail is where DVD’s and Blue-ray disks are sent via permit reply mail. The company was established in 1997 and is headquarters are in Los Gatos, California. It started its subscription-based service in 1999. By 2009, Netflix was offering a collection of 100,000 titles on DVD and had surpassed 10 million subscribers. People love TV content, but they don't love the linear TV experience, where channels present programs only at particular times on non-portable screens with complicated remote controls.
Linear TV was a huge advance in entertainment over radio, just as fixed-line telephone was an advance in communications over the telegraph. Now Internet TV - which is on-demand, personalized, and available on any screen - is maturing and will eventually replace the linear TV experience.
The world's leading linear TV networks now offer their programming on-demand through apps that run on phones and smart TVs. These apps, such as CBS All Access, BBC iPlayer, and HBO Now, enable binge viewing and catch-up viewing. Existing linear networks that offer compelling Internet TV apps will generate more viewing and become more valuable. Those networks that fail to develop first-class apps will lose viewing and revenue.
Internet TV is expanding rapidly because of:
• Ecosystem Growth: The Internet is getting faster and more reliable, while penetration of smart TVs and adapters is also rising
• Freedom and Flexibility: Consumers can watch content on demand, on any screen, and the experience is personalized to individual tastes
• Rapid Innovation: Internet TV apps have frequent improvement updates and streaming is the primary source of UHD 4K video content.
Eventually, as linear TV viewing falls in viewing and value, the spectrum it now uses on cable, fiber, and over-the-air will be reallocated to expand Internet data transmission. Satellite TV subscribers will be fewer and more rural. In a few decades, linear TV will be seen as a great transitional technology that gave way to Internet TV, like fixed-line telephone gave way to the mobile phone.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
* Netflix is the leader in market share of online rentals. * Netflix went into the marketplace for DVD leasing at a point in time while there were hardly any other contestants in the marketplace, permitting them to set up their product given name and image for providing an inimitable tune-up. * Netflix has low fixed costs. * Netflix has the world’s largest selection of DVDs * Netflix was the primary to proffer DVD leasing through mail and this permitted them to proffer a superior assortment of DVD’s to clients as evaluated to their participants at the time, as DVDs were comparatively new-fangled to the marketplace. * Netflix has the fastest delivery time of any online DVD rental company. * Netflix has a quick service: over 90% of DVD's are received by customers within one day of ordering

Weaknesses * Netflix can't control the most important expense, which is shipping expenses. * The older demographic has a hard time understanding Netflix’s concept. * Netflix’s Watch Instantly feature only allows for a small selection of DVD's * Netflix frequently has problem providing sufficient copies of new, well liked movies from the theaters. * Cost of Content: The cost of mass licensing packages and the in-house original content production has the company undertaking a large amount of debt. * Raising Subscription Prices: Netflix has a difficult time raising subscription prices. The last attempt to raise monthly subscription prices left currently subscribers upset and Netflix stock tumbling * DVD Subscribers: DVD and Blu-ray subscribers have dramatically declined in 2013.

Opportunities * Word-of-Mouth Campaigns: Marketing expenses have steadily decreased due to word-of-mouth campaigns based on original content. * Distributing movies directly to computers of clients is possible to be the after the uprising in how customers watch movies in their homes. * International Expansion: The ability to create original content will enhance international growth. * Expanding to Video Game rentals or educational videos.
Threats
* The rising cost of postage. * Content Price: The price of licensing and renewing those license agreements remain to be the largest threat to the company’s ability to operate at a profit. * Competition (Amazon Prime, YouTube): Both, Amazon Prime and YouTube has announced their own original content productions and aim to be a direct competitor to Netflix. * Redbox * Blockbuster allowing the rental of games in addition to movies * Netflix often has trouble providing enough copies of new, popular movies. * Google already owns YouTube, which it has successfully monetized. Google has also put the industry on notice that it plans to add premium content channels, having forged deals ranging from the Hollywood elite to the Wall Street Journal. The company has put a $200 million arrow behind the venture and could easily pull eyes away from Netflix.
Ratio Analysis

Financial Analysis
Global membership grew 3.62 million to 69.17 million members compared to prior year growth of 3.02 million, and a forecast of 3.55 million. Operating income was $74 million, compared to prior year of $110 million and a forecast of $81 million. Seven quarters ago Netflix moved to providing their internal forecast for the quarter ahead. Netflix strives for accuracy in this projection and, when it comes to global net additions, Q3 was their most accurate to date: they were within 2% (3.62 vs. 3.55) and within 10% on operating income ($74m vs. $81m).
While global growth was as they expected, their forecast was high for the US and low for international. They added 0.88 million new US members in the quarter compared to 0.98 million prior years and a forecast of 1.15 million. Our over-forecast in the US for Q3 was due to slightly higher-than-expected involuntary churn (inability to collect), which they believe was driven in part by the ongoing transition to chip-based credit and debit cards. In terms of US net additions, through the first nine months of 2015, they are slightly ahead of the prior year, and are expected to finish 2015 at about 2014 levels. This would mark the 4th consecutive year they’ve added about 6 million members in the US.
Netflix’s US contribution margin in Q3 expanded 375 basis points year over year to 32.4%. This was inclusive of acceleration in the amortization of some of their licensed content. The effect of this change was a $13 million decrease in US streaming contribution profit in Q3. For Q4, Netflix anticipates 1.65 million US net adds and US contribution margin of 34.0% vs. 28.0% in the year ago quarter. Netflix continues to target a 40% US contribution margin by 2020.
International net added growth totaled to 2.74 million compared to 2.04 million in the prior year and a 2.40 million forecast. Excluding the impact of foreign currency ($96 million on a year over year basis), international ASP improved 6% vs. Q3 ‘14, helped by plan mix. In August, we raised our high-definition 2-screen monthly price plan in Europe by one Euro without negatively impacting growth.
International contribution losses will grow sequentially in Q4 as they launch Spain, Italy and Portugal. They have announced their expansion to South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore in early 2016. Their plan remains to run around break-even through 2016 and to deliver material profits thereafter.
They increased prices in several countries including the US, to improve their ability to acquire and offer high quality content, which is the number one member request. The US pricing is now $7.99 for our standard-definition 1-screen-at-a-time plan (unchanged), $9.99 for our high-definition 2-screen plan (up $1), and $11.99 for ultra-high-definition 4-screen plan (unchanged). Members who were paying $8.99 for the high-definition plan are grandfathered at that price for one year.
Free cash flow in Q3 totaled -$252 million, down from -$229 million in Q2, due to the working capital intensity of their investment in originals, which results in higher cash spent upfront relative to content amortization. Investing in originals remains the right strategy for Netflix. Exclusive first-window “only on Netflix” content differentiates their service, allows them to leverage their global platform, reduces their dependence on third parties, and adds positive brand halo. Moreover, as more of their content spend is devoted to producing and owning their originals, they are building long term library value.
At the end of Q3, gross debt totaled $2.4 billion, which represents a debt to total cap ratio of about 5%, and they ended the quarter with $2.6 billion in cash & equivalents and short term investments. Netflix is likely to raise additional capital next year to fund their continued content investments.
Compared to its closing price of one year ago, Netflix's share price has jumped by 149.97%, exceeding the performance of the broader market during that same time frame. Although Netflix had significant growth over the past year, our hold rating indicates that we do not recommend additional investment in this stock at the current time.
Netflix's revenue growth trails the industry average of 38.2%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 23.3%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share.
The gross profit margin for Netflix Inc. is currently very high, coming in at 84.59%. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Regardless of the strong results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 1.69% trails the industry average.
Current return on equity is lower than its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of weakness within the company. When compared to other companies in the Internet & Catalog Retail industry and the overall market, Netflix Inc's return on equity is below that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
Net operating cash flow has significantly decreased to -$195.97 million or 423.43% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing to the industry average, the firm's growth rate is much lower.
Recommendations:
Netflix latest news of using Adam Sandler’s latest film, The Ridiculous 6 which premieres on December 11, 2015, may be just the ticket to make it easiest way to go global for them. The saying goes, if you want it done right, you have to do it yourself. That’s exactly what Netflix is doing. They found great success with the TV shows House of Cards and Orange is the New Black. Netflix is looking to do the same with original films instead of navigating expensive global licensing deals. Netflix maintains that Sandler’s slapstick has the international appeal to make a four-film deal a worthy investment—and that it has the data to back that claim up. “He is one of the most bankable, dependable stars on Netflix around the world,” Sarandos said earlier this week. Any Sandler movie from the last 20 years immediately make the top 10 in any country when Netflix makes it available, he said. If your style of investment doesn’t like a bumpy ride then investing in Netflix isn’t for you. The short-term returns are far from guaranteed to be positive. The stock may set a lot of all-time highs, but it crashes back down in a hurry quite often. Over the past five years, Netflix shares have closed at least 10% higher in a single day on 19 occasions. On the other hand, the stock also fell more than 10% overnight on nine occasions. Many investors prefer a slow and steady climb to higher value, but Netflix stock spends only 6% of its time within 10% of recent highs and lows. The rest of the time, you're looking at dramatic swings -- sometimes up, sometimes down, but almost always wild.
Don't invest money here that you might need to use on short notice. Share prices may dip steeply at any time and don't always recover quickly. That's the nature of the investing game in general, only more so for a volatile ticker like Netflix.

REFERENCES
Netflix; http://ir.netflix.com/long-term-view.cfm
Wikipedia; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix
Greenberg, J (2015, Decmeber); Netflix is Using Adam Sandler to Beat Hollywood and Rule the World; http://www.wired.com/2015/12/netflix-ridiculous-six-adam-sandler-to-beat-hollywood-and-rule-the-world/
Napoli, M., (2014, December) Netflix: A Short SWOT Analysis; http://www.valueline.com/Stocks/Highlights/Netflix__A_Short_SWOT_Analysis.aspx#.Vmrpr2flthE
Davies, R. (2013, May) Netflis: SWOT Analysis; https://prezi.com/6gilut2g6h7b/netflix-swot-analysis/
Stan SWOT Analysis, Wiki Wealth; http://www.wikiwealth.com/swot-analysis:nflx
Market Watch; http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NFLX/profile
Netflix; Financial Statements; http://ir.netflix.com/financials.cfm?CategoryID=282

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