Oceanography Final
11/4/2015: Bob Howarth, Nutrient Pollution in Coastal Marine Ecosystem
Oceans impacted by: Overfishing, Pollution, Climate Change

2010- World’s largest oil spill in Gulf of Mexico
Diffuse population=Biggest problem

Increase in global dead zone… too much algae -> too little oxygen Nutrient pollution is bad -> less marine diversity, currently not regulated,
Eutrophication= Algae Growth, runs oxygen levels to 0 in deep ocean
Increased vertical density stratification prohibits the warmer oxygen rich top layer from mixing with Deep Ocean

Phosphorus and Nitrogen are crucial to the growth of Algae Phytoplankton need a 16:1-N:P Redfield ration
Phosphorus: Bigger problem in fresh lakes, originally thought not to be the problem since scientific studies with phosphorous in small flasks showed that it wasn’t. But then, they tested it in a big lake in Canada and it proved to be the cause of algae growth.
Nitrogen: Comes mostly from agriculture (synthetic fertilizer), main problem in coastal waters (nitro-fixation is not common in coasts because of high salinity), proved through tests in tube like pools. Wetter coastal climates deliver more nitrogen pollution to sea because of rain run-off.
Gold of Mexico now warmer so there is a higher likelihood of it turning into a dead zone even with the same nitrogen input.
Hudson River flows slowly now -> less freshwater discharge -> Eutrophication
Gulf of St. Lawrence- climate change altered water patterns so less water from Labrador currents enter (water is coming from N. Atlantic instead) -> decrease in oxygen = less livable.
80% of agriculture production uses synthetic fertilizer with nitrogen.
We have put more N. Fertilizer on land in last 15 years than in the 75 years N. fertilizer has existed
37% of Fertillizer goes into streams.

NANI- Net anthropogenic Nitrogen input, (more in more out) About 25% NANI exported to coastal areas from 150 watersheds in US and Europe
Solutions:
Agriculture: Decrease use of synthetic fertilizer, change crop system/timing, plant winter cover crops, and control seasonal drainage.
CAFO’s: treat waste equal to human waste
Vehicle Exhaust: tighten emission standards, increase hybrids/electric cars.
Power Plant: tighten emission standards, use solar and wind.
Sewage treatment: Require denitrification treatment

Synthetic fertilizer is so cheap it frees Farmers of Manure, manure now a waste product not a resource.
Moving crops long distance is bad.
40% of US corn harvest was used to produce ethanol which = .8% of nations energy supply, bad since it increases N. pollution

Policy consideration of meat/energy is critical.
We must increase scientific research to fully understand problem.

11/6/2015 Bob Howarth, Methane and Global Warming
The last 3 decades have consecutively been the warmest
Methane has gone from .57-2.29 (1950-2011)

Reducing CO2 slows global warming in long run
Reduce Methane slows global warming in short run

Methane stays in atmosphere for 12 years, is 100X more powerful than CO2 as greenhouse gas
Contributes 50% of that of CO2 to greenhouse gasing
Comes from humans (350 tg/yr) and natural (220 tg/yr)
Nature- Rock formations (50tg) and decomposition on organic bacteria from lakes/wetlands (170 TG) none comes from the ocean- high salinity prohibits methane, but as ocean warms it will engage in positive feedback releasing methane from methane clathrates
Global warming increases the natural sources of Methane.
Humans- Natural sources (220 TG),
Anthropogenic sources (350): Fossil fuels (115), animal agriculture, rice cultivation. Landfills/sewage, biomass burning. 13 years for 1.5 decrees increase, 36 years for 2 degree increase.
Climate can only be stressed so far
Positive feedback= once triggered can send climate out of control, Methane Clathrates have 10,000X current global flux and will start releasing at 1.8
Hansen said 1.8 degrees is the line to not be passed where natural methane clathrates would be melted.

US eats more beef than anywhere else, switching to chicken would help.
Shale gas= worst choice

½ of all fossil fuels burned have been in last 35 years. 89% from nonrenewable sources
Natural gas is awful it is 80% methane and released from the tanks through leaks, not better than fossil fuels. <- New knowledge, not sure how much exactly.

11/11/2015
Increase in ocean temp. -> weakened immune system which facilitates disease in coral and starfish
Coral lesion grow with warming leading to disease and death.
27% of coral lost, Elkhorn Coral is now on the endangered species list.
Some infections come from human bacteria Human sewage sometimes released to Caribbean (causes Serratia Marcescens)
Some starfish are going extinct: have experiences extensive outbreak in wasting disease.
Bill to find a solution to sea star wasting syndrome has been proposed.

11/13/2015 Unsustainable Fishing Practices

Bottom Trawling- 70% scraped up is bycatch Used to collect organisms on/near sea floor by scraping a metal net along floor basically killing all life. Often used to get shrimp. Affects 150x greater an area than forest clearing yearly.
Mid water Trawling- Large net pulled through water in mid depth. Results in some bycatch

Purse Seine Net- Net dropped in circular formation at shallow depth, some bycatch

Surface long line fishing- over 100km long fishing line with 1000’s of hooks to catch tuna and swordfish.
(3200 hooks over 130 km) lots of bycatch – Sea turtles, Sharks, Turtles... all albatross species are now endangered.

Drift Net fishing- like a bigger version of the fishing net we use in Norway, up to 100 km long. Now Illegal, They are often lost since the buoy got broken off and they would get lost at sea catching fish forever.

Fish Aggregating Device- Lots of Bycatch 500-1000% more than nets set on free swimming schools, don’t just attract target species, collect many endangered species as well. Fish come close to FAD to hide and then ships come to get the fish, 50% of world’s tuna in caught with FAD, 100,000 put out yearly. Global fishery subsidies of 35 billion yearly are encouraging over fishing, (get it before it is gone) attitude Without fuel subsidies bottom trawling would stop! Lobbyists keep it from stopping

Overfishing is due to industrialization (1950-2010) 90% decline in top predator fishes 82% of major fisheries are at limit or overexploited 46%of fish production provided by aquaculture

Aquaculture= 46% of fish consumed, Farmed fish need to eat other fish so we are catching the small fish to feed the big fish, is not free fish! This fish removed cannot go to the predator fish in the wild so it is throwing of the balance. Aquaculture of planktivorous (plant eating) fish is sustainable
Growing shellfish is beneficial
Shrimp are bad if bottom trawled but can be sustainably grown by aquaculture.

If we moderate fishing we can have enough fish to last forever! 18% of fisheries are good.

Poor countries rely on fish for food, we are taking that option away.

Gear Modification does exist, they are trying to think of ways to decrease bycatch, such as putting streamers on surface long line fishing to scare away birds.

Sharks declined by 75% in past 15 years, Shark-fin soup a large part of this. Also, they are considered bycatch there is NO regulation or catch limit on them. There has been an increase in awareness, ex. Hong Kong gov’t no longer serves shark-fin soup. Sharks in contests now photographed instead of brought to land.

Marine Protected Area (MPA) - common in Hawaii, area where marine organisms can grow to abundance and then “seed” nearby areas. Growing idea, more MPAs set aside.

Marine Stewardship Council- (MSC) tries to encourage sustainably caught fish by harnessing consumer purchasing power, by Nov 2006 21 fisheries had gotten MSC stamp of approval.

11/16 /2015

1950- The great acceleration
Sun average temp= 6000 C, Earth average temp= 18 C
2014- Warmest year globally, 2010- warmest decade, 2012- warmest year in US

Greenhouse effect regulates temperature, what earth has now is the just right “goldilocks effect”

CO2 now at 400 PPM, natural range was 180-280 PPM, up 40%, humans more powerful than orbit People say a PPM of 350 would stabilize stratosphere
5 years ago Sea level was predicted to be up 40 by 3000, a year ago they changed that and are now expecting it to be up 1 M by 3000.

Some people argue there was a global warming Hiatus- there wasn’t, appeared to exist since ocean absorbs CO2

Methane is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2

Commitment future warming is “Warming in the Pipeline” ocean has been heated- will heat atmosphere in time

Vast Maj. Of heating will happen at high altitude
Arctic ice reaches minimum in first week of Sept- Will be ice free by 2030. Effects: Will not raise sea level (melting ice sheets does raise sea level) * Less artic ice -> more solar radiation entering arctic (summer) saved heat released in autumn, air above arctic head is heated which changes the temperature gradient which drives the winds. Wind in polar vortex holds arctic air above 60 N when air is cold but when air is warmer vortex sows down and air escapes leading to a slowing/stall of the jet streams and resulting in extreme winters and droughts. * Hurricane Sand could have been due to decrease in Ice * Melting ice -> lower albedo -> Warmer Ocean -> melting ice. * Albedo= ocean has high albedo, reflects more incoming solar radiation

Tipping point- when we pass positive feedback loop with change from linear, gradual melting to nonlinear rapid melting (some believe it was passed in 90s)

11/18/2015

US accounts for 20% of global energy consumption

Increased energy consumption due to: Increasing population Increased standard of living (esp. in developing world)

Fossil fuels expected to be major energy source through 2050
Danger of increasing sea level over next 2 centuries (sea level rises when ice sheets melt)

Irreversibility of climate change- Ocean will control atmosphere for long time (warming of pipeline) A decrease in Co2 won’t matter if dangerous equilibrium was already reached

75-80% of reserves must stay in ground to prevent 2 degrees… companies don’t want this.
Geoengineering, large-scale engineering of earth’s greenhouse warming counteract system is necessary just decreasing CO2 output is not enough * Solar radiation management= Climate intervention effect, Alter earth’s radiation budget to alter temperature directly. Release sulfate into stratosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation. * Decrease Carbon dioxide by storing it underground, in the ocean. It is very are to remove CO2 from atmosphere since you must process a large amount of air to get CO2, requires a large monetary investment.

Iron fertilization- add iron to increase PP and decrease CO2… too many negatives- won’t work.

Growing Algae on land could be beneficial, uses sunlight nutrients, water, photo bioreactors. However it still releases CO2 but the CO2 could be captures and used to produce ethanol, animal feed, biodiesel, bioplastics, etc. so it’s economical
Marine Microalgae is highly productive, and doesn’t compete with food for land, utilizes wide variation of water, and potential Co2 recycling exists.
To meet the entire liquid fuel need of US, algae would need land the size of Wyoming- could be done in Sahara.
While producing fuel we would also produce 34X the global soybean protein production for food.

11/23/2015

Jurisdictional Regions-: State Water= land – 3 NM Fed Water= 3NM- 12NM, territorial sea UN law of sea= 12 NM- 200NM International water = 200 NM out

Clean water act= any discharge of a pollutant to navigable water (expanded to include wetlands, tributaries, et.c) must obtain a permit, does not cover nutrient pollution.
Marine Mammal Protection Act= Illegal to take marine mammals.
Magnuson Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act= Main fishery management act, created 8 regional fishery management counsels to create and update fish management plans.
Place based Protection= Created protected areas, national preserves, seashores, etc. about 400 sites
National Environmental Policy Act= Requires ALL fed agencies to consider environmental impact and put it in writing (environmental impact statement) doesn’t prevent them from doing anything just makes them consider environment is considered a procedure.
Coastal zone Management act= Coastal resources are used by humans and must be protected, restricted stuff in coastal zones, it is broad on purpose and states are allowed to implement it, encourages states to consider long-term management. Participation by states is voluntary but they are encouraged by $ and Federal Consistency
Federal Consistency= Federal actions must be consistent with states coastal program, lets the state trump the fed.
National Ocean Policy- meant to get everyone together to organize chaos.

11/20/2015 Panel, UN group warns on emissions

The maximum Carbon budget we can allow without irreversible damage is 1 trillion metric tons of CO2 = 44 GTs yearly until 2020, 40/yr until 2025, 35/yr by 2030, 22/yr by 2050 Not likely to be met
50.1 GTs emitted in 2010, expected to reach 59 by 2020
11/30/2015 Sustainability

Must find balance between environment, social justice, and economics
Sustainability- long term wellbeing reliant on nature and responsible use, met current needs w/o compromising future
Human Consumption depends on: Population- 7 billion in 2011, 8 billion by 2024
Affluence
Tech-can be positive or negative Historically responded to demand by “drill-baby-drill” – need new demand management

Ecological footprint- Area needed to consume wellbeing, how much of nature’s resources/renewable bio productive capacity is currently being appropriated. Should be < Surface of Earth Currently at 1.6 earths, by 2030 we will need 2 earths

Ocean takes up 30% CO2, acidity up 26% (do to increased CO2)= polar seas at risk. Upwelling rand coastal regions are vulnerable to acidification

CO2 will be up 170% by 3000 if we continue like this Have 20 years at full swing, 50 Gt/yr (1/2 to ocean ½ to atmosphere), 500 in atmosphere total,
Solution= put a tax on CO2 then refund it at end of year, those who used a lot will lose money those who used little will gain money.
70% of streams degraded, we will never have another ice age!
Tragedy of the Commons= having a common resource is prone to collapse, facilitated by people thinking they don’t have the right to speak up.
12/2/2015 Sustainability Continued
Common Pod Resource= Ostrom explained how to avoid tragedy of the commons (member trust, balance between gov’t and self, knowledge of resource’s limitations)
Climate talks discuss the gap between actions and science.
Agreed to reconvene and check progress every 5 years. Political leadership is holding us back from using all renewable resources
US and Europe responsible for > ½ CO2 because their industrial rev. started earlier
China is currently emitting most (30%), India is getting up there too.

Cornell will be at zero emissions by 2035.
Final Review
Ocean Acoustic Ecology:
Commercial global shipping= 96% of worlds commerce
Right Whales losee >60% of communication opportunities
Navy is trying to be quieter. New boats being built with intent to be quiet

Numerical models by many people in many countries prove global warming exists