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Operation Management

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公 司 治 理
FRIENDS OF ACCOUNTING

基于 M logit 模型的制造业上市公司股利政策分析 *
北京工业大学
【摘

刘亭立





要】文章选取 2004—2012 年深圳主板和中小企业板的制造业上市公司为研究对象,
采用 Mlogit 回归方法研究了宏

观和微观经济因素对制造业公司股利政策制定的影响,
尤其是股利分配方式方面的影响。
研究发现:
中小板的股利分配情况要好
于主板,
纯现金股利为采用频率最高的股利分配方式;
资产规模、
盈利能力和成长能力对股利政策的制定影响广泛;
强制分红政
策的效果并不明显;
微观因素的作用要大于宏观因素。

【关键词】制造业上市公司; 股利政策; Mlogit 模型
中图分类号:
F275;
F832.48

文献标识码:
A

文章编号:
1004-5937
(2015 03-0065-04


一、
引言

管规则,
为基于这两个板块的描述统计提供了基础。
为了

上市公司的股利政策是投资者在进行投资时所关

保持研究时间的一致性,笔者将本文的研究时间定为

其一是上市公
注的重要内容。股利政策包含两个方面,

深市主板
2004—2012 年。根据证监会的行业分类方法,

司是否进行股利分配,
其二是上市公司以何种方式进行

市场共有制造业企业 226 家,
获得数据 2 005 条,
而深市

恰当的股利政策不仅能反映出公司的真实状
股利分配。

中小板市场共有制造业企业 574 家,
获得数据 4 049 条,

制造
况,
更可以激励投资者,
从而为公司吸引更多资金。

主要从是否进行股利分配和股利分配方式两个方面对深

业的蓬勃发展令投资者对制造业上市公司更加关注,


市主板和中小板进行了对比。

这些公司的股利政策则影响着投资者的投资意愿。所
以,
对制造业上市公司股利政策制定动因的分析很有现
实意义。
我国的股票市场分为主板市场、
中小企业板市场
(以
其中,
主板市场
下简称中小板 、
) 创业板市场和三板市场。
又分为沪市主板和深市主板。主板市场服务于成熟的企

(一 股利分配比例

我国 A 股市场中有七种股利分配方式:
纯派现、
纯转
纯送股、
派现转增、
派现送股、
转增送股和派现转增送
增、
股。
在本文中,
只要采用七种股利分配方式中的任何一种
进行股利分配,
就被视为进行股利分配。
在绝对数量上,
深市主板市场相对稳定,
其数量一直

业;
中小板作为创业板的过渡板块,
主要服务于暂时无法

围绕着 100 家波动,
最高值为 105 家,
出现在 2012 年,

在主板上市的企业,但是它与深市主板适用于同样的市

中小
最低值出现在 2008 年,
仅为 81 家。与此对比的是,

场法律法规和发行上市标准;创业板和三板则分别服务

板呈现出了明显增长的态势。在 2004 年,
进行股利分配

于高科技中小企业和退市企业。考虑到沪市和深市之间

的公司数量仅为 34 家,
而到 2012 年这一数量已经达到

的制度差异、中小板与创业板服务对象的区别和中小板

455 家,
年平均增长率达到 33.40%。在 2007 年,
中小板

是以制造业为主体这三个原因,笔者选取了深市主板和

的股利分配公司数量超过了深圳主板市场。在相对数量

中小板作为研究对象,以这两个板块的制造业上市公司

上,
其情况与绝对数量基本保持一致。
主板市场的相对数

为样本,
分析它们的股利政策影响因素,
以帮助投资者在

量在
[36.32%,
47.51%]
的区间内,
中小板在 2004 年比

进行投资时更好地预测它们的股利政策。

例仅为 18.48%,
而到了 2012 年,
这一比例已经增长到了
79.82%。这是因为在 2004 年,
中小板刚刚成立,
从上市

二、
描述性统计

公司数量上根本无法与深圳主板市场相比。随着中小板

制造业作为我国实体经济的一项重要组成内容,


的发展,
中小板逐渐壮大,
中小板上市公司进行股利分配

的发展关系着我国宏观经济的走势。制造业无论在主板
市场还是中小板市场都占有一席之地。我国的深圳主板

的比例才有所上升。
在对深圳主板市场和中小板市场进行描述统计后,

市场创立于 1991 年 7 月,中小板创立于 2004 年 5 月,

根据描述统计的结果,笔者将继续对影响这些制造业上

根据证监会的相关文件显示,两个板块适用于同样的监

市公司股利政策的因素进行分析。

* 基金资助:
国家社会科学基金青年项目
“上市公司大股东关系、
董事会履职与盈余质量研究”
(项目编号:
11CGL026 ;
) 国家
社科基金重点项目
“生态位理论范式下的股东关系及其经济后果研究”
(项目编号:
13AGL003 。

65

公 司 治 理
FRIENDS OF ACCOUNTING

(二 股利分配方式

由于股利分配方式中,
转增和送股这两种方式的样本

量过小,
容易影响模型的估计结果,
所以笔者将纯转增、

logitPk/0=ln


(y=k│x
=a
!(y=0│x) " +b x +b x + … +b x

) k k1 1

k2 2

(k=1, …, )
2, k-1

kp p

(1


其中, 代表结果种类。


派现送
送股和转增送股合并为纯股票股利,
将派现转增、

本文采用 Stata 12.1 软件进行处理,置信系数为

由此本文选用纯现金
股和派现转增送股合并为混合股利。

95%。

股利、
纯股票股利和混合股利三种股利分配方式。

(二 变量设定


在三种股利分配方式中,上市公司采用最多的是纯
现金股利。2012 年深圳主板市场采用此方式的比例高达

在宏观方面, GDP 指数作为我国宏观经济形势的


46.85%,
而后是混合股利,
而采取纯股票股利进行股利

《上市公司证券发行
代表。我国证监会于 2006 年颁布了

分配的情况排在最后。
从历年情况看,
中小板采用混合股

管理办法》
(以下简称
《办法》 ,
)《办法》
规定:
最近三年以

利进行分配的比率要大于主板市场。

现金或股票方式累计分配的利润不少于最近三年实现的
年均可分配利润的 20%。
《办法》
的颁布,
标志着我国半强

三、
模型设定及定量分析

制性分红政策的正式实施,所以本文引入虚变量,


(一 模型选择与数据收集


2004 年至 2005 年设为第一阶段,这一阶段该政策不实

由于本文的研究对象是不同因素对于上市公司多种

施; 2006 年至 2012 年划为第二阶段,

该阶段政策实

股 利 政 策 影 响 的 概 率 , 这 就 需 要 使 用 多 项 Logistic

施。
对于板块选择而言,
将主板和中小板放入同一模型进

选择多项 Logistic 模型的原因在
(Mlogit 模型进行处理。


行运算,
并引入虚变量来分别表示两个板块,
以求出板块

于该模型专门用于估计不同因素在多项互斥事件中作出

间的差异。

该模型自变量可以是连续变量,
可以是离散
选择的概率。

在微观方面,
主要以相关财务指标作为影响因素,


变量,
还可以是虚拟变量,
同时也不要求自变量之间满足

括盈利能力、
偿债能力、
成长能力、
营运能力四个方面;


多元正态分布。在本文中,互斥事件即三种股利分配方

股权结构以及生命周期。
具体设
外还包括公司资产规模、

式,
而多个因素指的是影响股利政策的不同因素。

定如表 1 所示。
表 1 变量列表

类型

影响因素

维度

指标

代码

计算方式

经济形势

虚变量板块代码

BOARDS

1 为主板, 为中小板


总资产

LNTOTASS

资产总额的自然对数

前五大股东股权集中度

OWNCON5

前五大股东股本之和/总股本

盈利能力

每股净资产

NAPS

净利润/总股数

短期流动比率

CURRT

流动资产/流动负债

成长能力

总资产增长率

TOTASSGRRT

营运能力

总资产周转率

TOTASSRAT

拥有的现金

每股经营活动现金净流量

OPECFPSTTM

生命周期

66

POLICY

偿债能力

因变量

虚变量强制分红政策

股东因素

微观

强制分红政策

公司规模

自变量

GDP

所属板块

宏观

GDP 增长率

留存收益权益比

CYCLE

股利分配方式

会 计 之 友 2011 年 第第 期 期
之 友 2015 年 6 3 下

METHOD

取自 2012 年统计年鉴
2006—2012
2004—2005 年 取 值 为 0,
年取值为 1

(期末总资产/期初总资产 -1

(资产合计期末余额 + 资
2* 营业收入/
产合计期初余额

经营活动现金净流量/总股数
(盈余公积 + 未分配利润 /所有者权益

0 为未分配, 为纯派现, 为纯股票股


利, 为混合股利


公 司 治 理
FRIENDS OF ACCOUNTING

的偏回归系数和相对风险比率。表 3 给出的是各变量的

(三 实证分析

考虑到进行因子分析的可能,首先对影响因素进行

边际效应和伴随概率。

KMO 检验,
其结果为 0.55,
理论上可以进行因子分析来

GDP 指数代表宏观经济形势,
它对于三种股利分配

降维,
但是考虑到信息的完整性,
直接进行了回归分析。

统计意义上均显著,
GDP 指数每增长 1%,
分配纯现金股

本文所使用的解释变量包括连续性变量和二分类虚

利的概率下降 2%,
而分配纯股票股利和混合股利的概率

变量。将这些变量进行多项 Logistic 回归,
其中以未进行

分别增加 1%和 2%。可能的解释是,
当经济发展较快时,

股利分配为比较基准,
其结果如表 2。

上市公司总希望能够抓住时机实现公司的发展,此时如

各因素的边际效应如表 3。

果分配纯现金股利可能会影响公司的现金流,从而限制

表 2 给出的是三种股利分配方式分别对应的各变量

公司的发展。
强制分红政策制定的初

表 2 关于影响因素的 Mlogit 回归分析

RRR

Coef.
GDP

0.97

0.03

衷是促进企业再融资时进行

纯股票股利

纯现金股利

Coef.

混合股利

RRR

- 0.32***

1.38***

Coef.

现金分红,
所以从经济学意义
RRR

上看,
各偏回归系数符合经济

1.14***

- 0.13***

学意义。根据表 3,
该政策在
三种股利分配方式的统计意

POLICY2

-0.1

1.10

-0.31

0.73

-0.06

1.06

BOARDS1

-0.11

0.89

-0.57*

0.56*

-0.81***

0.45***

OWNCON5

-1.08***

2.94***

-0.06

0.94

- 0.35

1.43

LNTOTASS

- 1.41***

4.10***

- 0.92***

2.50***

- 1.01***

2.76***

深圳主板市场的制造业

NAPS

- 0.27***

1.31***

- 0.32***

1.38***

-0.43***

1.53***

上市公司更不倾向于采用纯

CURRT

- 0.09***

1.10***

-0.02

1.02

- 0.08***

1.08***

股票股利或混合股利进行分

0.01***

1.00***

- 0.01**

1.01**

- 0.01***

1.01***

TOTASSGRRT
TOTASSRAT

-0.08

0.92

CYCLE

-0.02

1.02

CONS

-0.86***

0.42***

- 0.00
-14.80***

-14.90***

也不显著。所以,
该政策的效
果并不明显。

配。与中小板相比,
深圳主板
市场不进行股利分配的概率

0.90

- 0.02

1.00

-0.11

义上均不显著,
且其边际效应

1.02

要高 8%,
而采取混合股利的
概率比中小板低 8%。对于纯

-13.80***

现金股利和纯股票股利,
两个
板块的差别并不明显。

*
**
***
注:p

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...Question 1 Operation management is the term used in managing resources for produce and delivery of goods and services, by using the most cost-saving and effective ways (Pycraff, 2000). Consequently, it would be clear that operation management is important in CDS. This is because a well operation management can lead to the minimization of production costs, successfully met with customer’s requirement and the increase of business revenues. Operation management is directly responsible to design the operation and system processes for the products and services. Next, operation management is requires to plan and control the activities of operation, yet they have to detect and respond to deviation from the operation. (Wps.pearsoned.co.uk, 2010) In general, these responsibilities can be emphasized through Sandra White, the Planning Manager in Concept Design Services (CDS) whose is in charge for all manufacturing and distribution activities in the organisation. For example, she has subcontracted some of the lower end products assembling jobs to other smaller moulding companies as to increase the production volumes and control its production costs. Furthermore, operation management in an organisation is indirectly responsible to work closely with other functional areas of business, for instance, Marketing, Accounting and Finance and Human resources (Pycraff, 2000). Also, they will have to encourage those functions to suggest ways that can improve its “service” to the rest of others...

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Operation, Management

...Operations performance objectives This first point made in this section is that operations objectives are very broad. Operations management has an impact on the five broad categories of stakeholders in any organisation. Stakeholders is a broad term but is generally used to mean anybody who could have an interest in, or is affected by, the operation. The five groups are: * Customers - These are the most obvious people who will be affected by any business. What the chapter goes on to call the five operations performance objectives apply primarily to this group of people. * Suppliers - Operations can have a major impact on suppliers, both on how they prosper themselves, and on how effective they are at supplying the operation. * Shareholders - Clearly, the better an operation is at producing goods and services, the more likely the whole business is to prosper and shareholders will be one of the major beneficiaries of this. * Employees - Similarly, employees will be generally better off if the company is prosperous; if only because they are more likely to be employed in the future. However operations responsibilities to employees go far beyond this. It includes the general working conditions which are determined by the way the operation has been designed. * Society - Although often having no direct economic connection with the company, individuals and groups in society at large can be impacted by the way its operations managers behave. The most obvious example...

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Operation Management

...holding company, mainly engaged in real estate development in Malaysia. It does this by three parts: property development, education, and a clubhouse. The company develops, build and sell residential, commercial, industrial, leisure, and institutional property; management of private and international schools; and management and operation of the club. It is also involved in the sale of land; investment property; purchase of building materials; and providing landscape management, project management, management and administrative services. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seremban, Malaysia.Matrix Concepts Holdings Berhad, a Negeri Sembilan according to property developers, it has earned a reputation for developing quality and affordable residential and commercial buildings since its incorporation in 1997.So far, the formation of a strong track record of completed development projects worth over one billion US dollars RM2.4 gross development value (GDV) of about 1900 acres of land in Negeri Sembilan and Johor. Part (A) Operations Management is the management of business practices to create the highest level of efficiency in the organization. The purpose of the operational management is the conversion of materials and labor into commodities and services as much as possible to maximize the profits of such an organization. Direct responsibility method individual or team, is responsible for all the necessary clients will need to go to the results...

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Operations Management

...What is Operations Management? 2013 Joshua Richards POM 343 Due: 12/11/2013 Table of Contents Tale of Things to Come 1 Conceptual Model 2 Class Two: What is Operations Management / Productivity, Competitiveness & Strategy 3 Class Three: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, MRP and ERP 4 Class Four: Product and Service Design 5 Class Five: Capacity Planning, Process Selection and Facility Layout 6 Class Six: Design of Work Systems and Learning Curves 7 Class Eight: Location Planning and Analysis 8 Class Nine: Management of Quality and Quality Control 9 Class Ten: Inventory Management 10 Class Eleven: JIT and Lean Operations 11 Class Twelve: Supply Chain Management 12 Conclusion 13 Tale of Things to Come I am going to take you on a whirlwind of wonder and learning all based around operations management. At least that is what I saw it as. Coming in to a class with no expectations, mainly because I have never heard of the topic, I was pleasantly surprised. Coming from a person who has hopes and dreams to own or at least run a successful company someday this class had a plethora of information that I will hopefully someday have the opportunity to use. I decided to break the class down week by week. The reason I chose to do this is partly because of the material and partly because of the teaching method. One thing I loved about the class is that as you go along you always continue to use the stuff you learned previously. When we were doing supply...

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Operations Management

...Operations Management is a fundamental and vital part of any organization from a niche market to a multi-million dollar conglomerate. It aim its focused on effectively turning inputs to outputs and by doing that obtaining a competitive advantage among everyone that is in that market. In fact, Forbes magazine reported in 2011 that about three quarters of all CEOs came from an operations background. Not all these CEOs studied operations in school; only some of them did. OM orchestrates all the resources needed for the final product. It includes designing, deciding what resources are needed for e.g. A hospital resources would be its team of qualified doctors, nurses, clerical/ administrative staff, their strategically analysed medical procedures and their state of the art, outstanding medical equipment. Operations Management focuses on all various Departments whether it be Sales and Marketing, Quality, Accounts, Finance or Human Recourses to assure to production of the good or/and services. Human Resource would be able to make good staffing decisions better job descriptions, applicable training programs. Without operation Account Department wont be able to pay off bills and suppliers also staff which can lead to big problems further down the road. If operations fail to run well the consequences of HR are not good. They help implement strategies that would assist the company in reducing cost and maximizing its profits to also improve flexibility to meet that swift changes of...

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Operation Management

...1. Why is it undesirable for the United States to evolve into a service economy? It is undesirable for the United States to evolve into a service economy because several problems arise if jobs shift from manufacturing to service. One is that service job pay less. Many service jobs are in minimum wage, while hourly wages from manufacturing jobs have historically exceeded the minimum wage by a substantial margin. As a result the standard living will necessarily decline. Furthermore, manufacturing allows the firm to capture payoff for the development of new technology. If this payoff is lost, so is the incentive to invest in research. The decline of manufacturing domestically has led to a shift in jobs from the manufacturing sector to the service sector. Because there are major disparities in labor costs in different parts of the world, there are strong incentives for American firms to locate volume manufacturing facilities overseas to reduce labor costs. 2.What disadvantages do you see if the CEO is primarily concerned with the short-term ROI? In the short term, decreasing the denominator by cutting back on the investment in new technologies or new facilities. Performance is measured over short time horizons. There is little motivation for a CEO to invest in a project that is not likely to bear fruit. 3.Can you think of companies that have gone out of business because they focused only on cost and were not able to achieve a minimum quality standard? -“Enron went from...

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Operations Management

...Operations Management… By D.B.S. Saurabh Marwah(201401017), Dingnan Ouyang(201400084), Boyang Yu(201400104) Students – Asia Pacific International College Literature review 1 Literature review of Operations management Saurabh Marwah, Dingnang, Boyang Asia Pacific International College Research Topic: The impact of total supply chain management on organization performance? Literature review 2 Introduction Operations management is an important part for all the organizations to run themselves successfully or in a professional manner. It refers to decisions and responsibilities of managing the resources dedicated to the production and service delivery. Managers are the people who are responsible managing the resources that make up the operations function. There are other functions also which are not core to the organizations which are for the smooth running of the organizations such as accounting, IT, human resources. Being an operations manager contains a lot of responsibilities and activates in the organization, which contribute to give good service. * Strategic objective: Operations managers must clearly understand the goals of the organization and develop vision in order to achieve them, which also involve translating the goals into implications. * Operations strategy: There are numerous decision-making involved with operations, it is important that operations manager should have a set of guidelines that are connected with organization’s...

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Operations Management

...1. Explain how operations management activities affect the customer experiences described in the Museum of Science and Industry anecdote at the beginning of this chapter. What “moments of truth” would a customer encounter? Operations Management, focuses on the goods, service and processes in creating customer experiences and satiations. This is done by job design and customer flow, the importance of service management skills, creating a demand, capacity and staff/show scheduling, employee training, purchasing, forecast call volume, determine the number of customers serviced to have on duty by the time of day, design of their jobs and training them to offer superior delivery of customer service. The anecdote at Chicago’s Museum of Science and Industry focuses on the role of guest call center, information services, exhibit maintenance, food service, protective services, facilities, operations, and processes in creating customer experiences and satisfaction. Moments of truth might include; buying a ticket and the associated service encounters with a call center, getting to the (parking, train, taxi, walk) museum site, web site or travel agency, waiting in line, food service, rest rooms, handicap and discarding trash processes, museum security, interactive museum and learning displays and continuous improvement orientation. 2. Explain why a bank teller, nurse, or flight attendant must have service management skills. How do the required skills differ for someone working...

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