...Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-04 November 21, 2002 PREDICTING THE EQUITY PREMIUM (WITH DIVIDEND RATIOS) Amit Goyal Goizueta Business School at Emory Ivo Welch Yale School of Management NBER This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=158148 Predicting the Equity Premium (With Dividend Ratios)∗ Amit Goyal† Goizueta Business School at Emory and Ivo Welch‡ Yale School of Management and NBER November 21, 2002 Abstract Our paper suggests a simple recursive residuals (out-of-sample) graphical approach to evaluating the predictive power of popular equity premium and stock market time-series forecasting regressions. When applied, we find that dividend-ratios should have been known to have no predictive ability even prior to the 1990s, and that any seeming ability even then was driven by only two years, 1973 and 1974. Our paper also documents changes in the time-series processes of the dividends themselves and shows that an increasing persistence of dividend-price ratio is largely responsible for the inability of dividend ratios to predict equity premia. Cochrane (1997)’s accounting identity—that dividend ratios have to predict long-run dividend growth or stock returns— empirically holds only over horizons longer than 5–10 years. Over shorter horizons, dividend yields primarily forecast themselves. JEL Classification: G12, G14. ∗ Forthcoming: Management Science. The paper and its data is...
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...This paper will discuss the idea of resiliency and how the United States Army (USA) has applied it over the years, as resilience is imperative to the US Soldier. The USA is a group, through whom land based military operations inflicts and suffers casualties on a regular basis. To kill another person or to lose a loved one is an extreme burden to bear, and many Soldiers throughout the years have not been able to cope with such a hardship. To explore this topic, one must consider the modern idea of resilience psychology, sociological necessities, the Warfighter through time, and the way ahead. The idea of what it means to be a resilient person has certainly changed throughout the years. Thinking back to the previous generations...
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...Military expenditures in the US and compared to Russia Name: Institution: Tutor: Course: Code: Date: Write a paper about 7-10 pages, single space about military expenditures in the US and compared to Russia (or any other country), Then we can ask how much military expenditure is optimum. It means beyond a point more military expenditures brings us no more security but less security in terms of not spending for education, health and infrastructure. Introduction. There has been a controversial and growing concerns in the recent years about the harmful effects of military expenditures in the developed countries. According to the studies conducted they reveal that these expenditures disrupts and worsen the balance of payments deficits, hinder economic growth and social sector. These effects of the military expenditures seem to have the adverse effect to the overwhelming majority of the poor and in general the whole nation (Aizenman, Glick, & National Bureau of Economic Research. (2003)). This paper set to compare the military expenditure of the US and that of Russia. These two countries are among the world super nations and therefore it will be crucial to study trends in military expenditures over time. The paper will also highlight the effects of military expenditure on economic growth. The chief purpose to study military expenditure data, is to clearly to have an appropriate way to identify and measure the resources absorbed by the military over time in various countries...
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...Reflective thinking, in distinction from other operations to which we apply the name of thought, involves (1) a state of doubt, hesitation, perplexity, mental difficulty, in which thinking originates, and (2) an act of searching, hunting, inquiring to find material that will resolve the doubt, settle and dispose of the perplexity’. (Dewey, 1933 p.12) Part 1: With this in mind, consider critically and analytically the purpose and value of reflection and reflective practice, supporting your discussion with relevant reading. Chloe Carter-Miles 6th November 2012 Contents Main Body of Text Page 3 References Page 11 Bibliography Page 13 Appendices Page 16 List of Appendices Appendix 1 Kolb’s Cycle of Experiential Learning Appendix 2 Gibbs Model of Reflection (1988) Appendix 3 Moon’s Model of Reflection Appendix 4 Blooms Taxonomy; original and revised This essay will explore the purpose and value of reflective practice as a trainee teacher, and how it supports learning. Dewey (1916) defines education as ‘It is that reconstruction or reorganization of experience which adds to the meaning of experience, and which increases ability to direct the course of subsequent experience.’ The pertinent word to note in this quote is ‘experience’. Since Dewey highlighted the importance of reflective practice in the early part of the 20th Century, many other academics and practitioners have explored and written about it. Many different reflective models have been published...
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...International Security Lecture 1 March 30th, 2015 The politics of security knowledge What is international security? We could start thinking about the security council of the UN But also about the invasion of Afghanistan (chapter 7 UN in order to secure the international security) We can also think about security in terms of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. This was a unilateral act of war, but sure it can also mean other things We can think of the national security agency, the agency in charge of spying all the signals and communications to a certain extent. What’s interesting about the NSA, it is seen as a threat to the security of the privacy. Lately, with the reports of the UN development programme, we start talking about HUMAN security (not military security, but rather the security of individuals, having a livelihood that’s acceptable). Whether security is international or not, it can be a rather confusing word The protection of values we hold dear. We search for it, we pursue it, we achieve it, we deny it to others. * what is to be secured? Is it the security of states? Or individuals? * What is the actual threat that we’re facing? Primarily to be dealing with military threats, or are there other types of threats we are facing. Essentially contested concept A concept that ‘inevitably’ involves endless disputes about their proper uses on the part of their users – Walter Gallie There can be ambiguity (one persons freedom-fighter is the other’s...
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...Design 14 Retail Strategic Plan Controllable & Uncontrollable Variables 18 Global Retailing 20 Positioning & Differentiation 20 Strategic Direction 21 Executive Summary 22 Appendices & References 24 In 1902 founder and one time CEO James Cash Penney opened a small dry goods store in Kemmerer, Wyoming named The Golden Rule. 110 years later this once small business manager grew a company we now know as JCPenney, which has flourished into a nationwide retail department store with over 1100 store locations throughout the United States. Throughout the years JCPenney has changed an adapted to the retail market. It wasn’t till the suburban boom of the 1950’s or the post WW2 era that JCPenney became relevant as the department store we know it as today. It was at this time that JCPenney began to run national advertisements and adopted its discounted goods strategy. During these years James Cash Penney held on to his humble beginnings and incorporated his standing on customer service and daily operations. The key...
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...Background The question of path dependency arises very frequently in socio-scientific discourses especially on institutional evolution.This concept of path dependency establishes a dynamic relationship between power,actors and institutions which compels any research to study institutions and their corresponding developments from critical theory perspective to understand mechanics behind such institutional metamorphosis and its impact on human environment and subsequent responses to such changes.Such theories also make bold attempts to explain institutional stagnancy; why actors may intentionally or unintentionally fail to respond to changes in the environment even when such responses would yield better results directly countering those economic...
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...expansion v. Technology and the trends towards international 7 orientation Conclusion 8 Appendices 9 References 17 Executive Summary Changes in the global business environment can create many opportunities for firms operating in any industry however, they can also create significant threats. Therefore, it is imperative that businesses understand the factors that will affect its survival and capacity to compete in an increasingly global market place. The aim of this paper is to apply the PESTLE and Porter’s Five Forces framework to the City of Osaka, Japan and to understand the ‘big picture’ forces that have shaped and continue the landscape of the manufacturing industry from 2000 to date. The analysis reveals that downturns in the economic environment, attracting foreign investing and that an ageing population have a significant impact upon the survival of firms operating in the manufacturing sector. Similarly, our research shows business continuity is heavily influenced by the occurrence or anticipation of natural disasters. These conclusions advocate countermeasures imposed by policy makers who play a pivotal role in responding to uncertainty...
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...7 1.5 Post Purchase Evaluation 8 2. Analysis of computer industry business trends in SA 9 2.1 Industry overview (South Africa) 10 2.2 Market analysis 10 2.2.1 Supplier Power 11 2.2.2 Buyer Power 11 2.2.3 New Entrants Threat 11 2.2.4 Threat of Substitutes 12 2.2.5 Rivalry 13 2.2.6 Opportunities 13 3. DELL’S online only strategy in the 80s and 90s analysis 14 3.1 Dell’s online strategy 14 3.2 Online business value 15 3.3 Online Sales Growth 16 3.4 Convenience 16 3.5 Consumer behaviour intelligence 17 3.6 Was online only strategy suitable for under and developing nations? 17 4. Proposed Channel Strategy for Dell to be Market Leader In SA 18 4.1 Marketing Channel Selection 18 4.2 Market Research and Analysis 18 4.3 Distribution Channels 18 4.4 The Internet and disintermediation in the distribution channel 19 4.5 Channel Length 20 4.5.1 Consumer Channels 20 4.5.2 Business-to-Business Channels 21 4.6 Overcoming Limitations of shop floor space 21 4.7 Conflicts 21 4.8 Supply Chain 22 4.9 Distribution intensity 22 4.9.1 Selective Distribution 23 5. Conclusion 23 B. List of References 25 C. ANNEXURE 1 27 A. Introduction This report examines the consumer purchasing decision process with specific reference to purchasing a PC; from the need recognition up until a consumer makes the decision to purchase such PC and also focuses on the post purchase behaviour. While this paper acknowledges...
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...McCarthyism and The Second Red Scares impact on Media in the 1950-60s decades (Research and Analysis Paper) In 1950, fewer than 50,000 Americans out of a total US population of 150 million were members of the Communist Party(Gilder Lehrman). However following WWII the the time period of the 1950-1970 was marked as a period of mass fear of Communism. American fears of internal communist infiltration reached Its highest point since the First Red Scare of the 1920-30s. Government organizations investigated millions of americans, “asking what books and magazines they read, what unions and civic organizations they belonged to, and whether they went to church” (Gilder Lehrman). This time period was also marked by the major shift and blacklisting of celebrities primarily in show business. One of the people who took full advantage of the mass hysteria was Senator Joseph McCarthy from Wisconsin. McCarthy began his crusade by giving a speech at the Women’s Republican Club of Wheeling, in West Virginia, where he stated that he had a list of over 220 confirmed communists living in the US. The numbers of this statement dropped over the years as people began to watch him more closely. However this didn’t stop him from rising to more power, after the Republicans regained a majority in the senate, McCarthy took control of a subcommittee, and performed investigations on government agencies. Other Cold War “activists” consisted of Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey, union leader Walter Reuther...
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...Why Diversity Recruitment is Important in the Workplace Latonia Baker lbakey@cc.edu DeVry Keller School of Graduate Studies Professor Burnell Carden April 17, 2016 HRM594 Abstract Numerous organizations have implemented diversity recruitment initiatives to earn the enthusiasm of minority occupation candidates. The verifiable message in these activities is that organizations keep up strong differences atmospheres. Minority work candidates that are along these lines procured may trust that the enrollment strategies used to lure them were misdirecting if genuine work-place assorted qualities atmospheres are unfavorable. This paper will explore the different issues and solutions that diversity recruitment has a staffing in an organization. Introduction Taking a stab at a diverse workforce is a prevailing issue for human asset experts. Its development in HR has given assorted qualities another face. Be that as it may, a basic meaning of assorted qualities is diverse for every association. Today diversity in the working environment incorporates more than the customary perspective that concentrates principally on sex and race. It has tackled a much more extensive definition. The changing demographics of the work power and commercial center are making it essential for organizations to venture up their differing qualities enlistment programs. As indicated by the Society for Human Resource Management, utilizing working environment differing qualities is progressively seen...
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...PRIVATIZATION OF WAR SIKANDER ZAFAR SZABIST Abstract: It is believed that the fate of United States of America had been on the hands of mercenaries now what we call the modern-day private military companies. Since the start till the American Revolution in 1776, the American lands had been owned and controlled by mercenaries and private contractors. Christopher Columbus, the man who got backing from Spain's Queen Isabella and king Ferdinand to launch the voyage and discover the new world relater effectively became a private military contractor or a PMC. This shows that the history of contracting private military -previously by the royal offices and now by the democratically elected governments- have been practiced; Historians claims that mercenaries existed in ancient Egypt to safeguard the Egyptian sovereignty by the rebels of that time. Indeed, mercenaries have transformed into private military contractors after the downfall of Soviet Union in 1991 and the characteristics of a PMC and ancient mercenaries are rather similar. However, under The Hague Convention no. 5 mercenaries are illegal organizations but the role and responsibility of private military organizations is unknown in the international law which gives them free reins to operate in a way which fulfills their greed to make abnormal profits. The operations of private military companies is controversial, their contracts with the governments and other non-state actors is discreet in nature which confines the mass...
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...Lesotho Case Study “Market and Mountain Kingdom” Bob Terry 10/8/2012 Wk 7Assignment Globalization & Regionalization Globalization is international integration of cultures, people, products, beliefs, and much more. Globalization makes goods and services available to locations that originally wouldn’t have them. Some of my favorite restaurants are Brazilian Steakhouses like Texas de Brazil and Fogo de Ciao. These restaurants would not be offered in Denver Colorado without globalization. Globalization has increased greatly over the past century due to advancements in technology, particularly in transportation and knowledge sharing (internet). These technologies have ingrained globalization in the modern era. Regionalization is the economic integration of countries. Some good examples of these are the North Atlantic Free Trade Organization (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU). Both of these agreements take countries that are in similar regions and in certain economic ways. All countries in the EU have the same currency which creates certain benefits but has also created economic disaster for many countries involved. The goal of regionalization is to benefit all countries involved and become stronger globally as a whole. These two forces have had tremendous impact on the small African nation of Lesotho. Foreign influences have shaped Lesotho throughout history and currently determine their economic factors today. Most recently trade agreements have made Lesotho...
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...GraduateSchoolofLibraryandInformationScience UniversityofWesternOntario London, Ontario, Canada, N6G1H1 Tel.+1519679-2111ext.8500 Fax+1519661-3506 http://www.newmedia.slis.uwo.ca/yuri/ Abstract This paper presents an overview of emerging interactive multimedia technologies and how they can be used to deliver news on the Internet. A set of design principles for designing interactive multimedia news systems are given that include factors such as the effective use of navigational aids, design of menus, presentation styles, and effective use of media. Examples of effective designs and implementation of multimedia news on the Internet are also given. The impact and benefits of multimedia news on society are also discussed with examples. The paper concludes with some possible designs for future news delivery systems. 1.0 Introduction The news industry is currently undergoing major transformations as a result both of the growing popularity of the Internet itself and of advances in interactive multimedia technologies for the Internet. The types of news sources available on the Internet include newspapers, news wires, cable television, news magazines, and radio stations. New technologies for the Internet include animations, direct manipulation of graphical interfaces, and real time on-demand audio and video. The shift from paper to electronic delivery of news occurred almost simultaneously with both producers and consumers of news. The number of Internet users has been debated widely but current estimates...
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...important? Coexistence of Growth miracles, Growth Disasters Barro (1991) provides that it is ultimately the relationship between the level of human capital and initial GDP that allows some poor countries to converge on rich countries. Ultimately, our conclusion parallels that of Barro’s and we find that the driving determinants of growth are Human capital, Investment and the initial GDP level. Our analysis follows the key ideas and assumptions of Barro’s model. We use both Primary and High School enrolment as a proxy for the accumulation of Human capital, however, this does pose some restrictions on our analysis. To examine this, a new index of human capital stock will be recommended. Most significantly… Summarise the findings of the paper. Our finding will ultimately accord with recent models such as Lucas [1988] and Romer [1990] that assume constant returns to reproducible capital. Although in these models the growth rate is independent of the starting GDP. We divorce...
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