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Rating Agencies Methodologies

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RATING AGENCIES
CRA are reviewing their methodologies as their ratings were not good indicators of banks’ vulnerabilities before the crisis (weak and positive relationship on FSR – but market indicators not better). * SP has proposed significant changes to its ratings methodology. * Moody’s has recalibrated the relative importance attached to rating factors.

1. All 3 CRA consider that the banks’ creditworthiness has worsened materially in Europe and in the US. 2. Greater agreement between CRA than in mid-2007, reflecting shifts in estimates of government support. 3. Revisions in methodologies likely to lead to further downgrades in the banking sector.
Indicators that would have improved accuracy of pre-crisis ratings: * Regulatory environment/financial culture (exposure to complex financial products tolerated encouraged) * Macro-prudential indicators * Excessive credit growth * Asset price increases * Bank-level characteristics * High-quality capital
Main issues: * Accounting for external support * Accounting for systemic risk (no definition of system, no metric => rely on macro-indicators) * Accounting for earnings volatility (due to high leverage)

METHODOLOGIES 1. FITCH * Stand alone scale from 9 to 19 ratings by mid-2011 * = more granularity and more transparent link stand alone/final rating * Systemic risk assessed but used for sovereign ratings rather than individual

2. MOODY’S * JDA methodology to assess external support (2005): start from FSR and assess sequentially 4 types of support (parent, coop group, regional gvt, national gvt) * Has recalibrated sovereign support during the crisis (willingness stronger) so wider gap between stand alone and final. * But doubts about ability now, especially in non-AAA countries => final ratings likely to worsen. * Also revise stand alone methodology: greater emphasis on fwd-looking assessments of capital ratios (EL in stress scenarios).

3. STANDARD & POOR’S * 1.Home country BICRA Industry score +.weighted avg score of eco/fin risk components of BICRA scores in all op countries => ANCHOR PROFILE + specific +/- = SACP * In specific analysis: * less emphasis on diversification benefits and more on OBS derivatives and structured finance investments * earnings focused on risk adjusted perf and ability to raise K with retained profits * more attention to systemic importance and gvt tendency to support

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