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Sales Reviewer

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Chapter 5 * a prediction of the future market potential for a specific product. * sales forecast * is a quantitative estimate, in either physical or monetary units, of the total sales for a product within a market. * Market potential * is the portion of market potential that one among a set of competing firms can reasonably expect to obtain. * Sales potential * based on primary research * Build-up approach * Forecast economic conditions, such as these: I. GNP II. consumer price index III. wholesale price index IV. interest rates V. unemployment levels * Breakdown approach * assumes that the next period’s sales will be the same as they were in the previous period. * Naïve forecast * method asks key managers within the company for their best estimate of sales in a given planning horizon and combines the results to develop the forecast. * Jury of executive opinion * method is similar, but it asks the sales force for their best estimates of sales in the planning horizon. * Sales force composite * survey of customers’ buying intentions or test marketing * Counting methods * are movements in a time series as a result of developments in population, technology, or capital formation. * Trends * are consistent patterns of sales changes in a given period generally called seasonal variations. * Periodic movements * are wave-like movements of sales that are longer in duration than a year, such as business recessions. * Cyclical movements * are one-time specific events—such as wars, strikes, snowstorms, hurricanes, fires, and floods—that are not predictable. * Erratic movements * are forecasts developed using a moving average to predict future sales as a mathematical function of sales in recent time periods. * Moving averages * model is based

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