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Should Boc Increase or Decrease Interest Rates

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Submitted By moizmali
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Macroeconomics Assignment 2
Prof. Theodore Tolias
14th November, 2012

Moiz MansoorAli
211386380
Section F

Question 1) Interest rates affect various economic variables hence its changes need to be computed carefully before a decision is taken. However Bank of Canada (BoC) needs to increase the interest rates within the next six months based on the future market conditions. These conditions are fragile at the moment and a certain hypothesis cannot be made as to when the market will ease down. Looking at the domestic markets, BoC needs to gradually increase the interest rates. One of the major factors supporting this argument is to avoid another ‘housing bubble’. With ultra-low interest rates and loose credit underwriting standards the demand is more than the supply and hence people are piling up on debt which may lead the economy into another financial crisis. Hence that bubble needs to be broken. Adding to that, with low rates, individual investors, insurers and pension funds have no incentive to save which is adding to the problem of high consumption that plays a huge role in raising inflation. Another factor supporting this argument is helping private sector financial intermediation, which is basically a company that borrows from savers and lends to companies in need of investment. Technically, a wider gap between long term and short term yield rates make intermediation profitable. However since 2011, the US yield curves are quite flatter and the returns reflect the inflation rate making them not so attractive. Since the Canadian economic climate is shaped by US policy, the returns here have reduced as well but the inflation rates are well below the target making the margin on returns real which is not currently a major issue. Overtime however, low rates may have drastic effects. Final argument to sum up can be made to address the long term effect of

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