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Should Renminbi Devalue Further?

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Submitted By seho
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Question 1 1. Evolution of RMB against USD, EUR and JPY.

Figure 1
Figure 1 represents movement between the nominal and real exchange rates of Chinese renminbi (RMB) against US dollar (USD) between from January 2005 to December 2013. It shows that the nominal exchange rate of RMB/USD is higher than the real exchange rate throughout the period of observation indicating that the RMB is undervalued. This clarifies that the USD is buying more RMB in nominal terms than it should be in real terms. The increase in nominal exchange rate of RMB/USD is termed as a nominal depreciation of the currency after de-pegging whereas the real exchange rate of RMB/USD continues depreciating in the years of observation as shown in Appendix 2. It also shows that the RMB was depreciating against USD in every quarter after de-pegging. Table 1 compiles the average quarterly percentage of over-or-undervaluation of the RMB against USD, euro (EUR) and the Japanese yen (JPY) from January 2005 till December 2013. Before the de-pegging, the RMB was found to be overvalued by of 1.19% against the USD in January 2005 then it was discovered to be undervalued since March 2005 by 0.58%. The RMB continues being undervalued against the USD and reached its highest percentage at 28.49% in March 2013. By December 2013, the RMB was still undervalued by 28.35% against USD. Overall, the RMB was overvalued against the USD by 16.94% in the period of observation.

Figure 2
Figure 2 demonstrates movement of the nominal and real exchange rates of RMB against EUR from January 2005 until December 2013. The nominal and real exchange rate of RMB/EUR has been moving in a similar pattern from January 2005 until May 2008 and then the nominal exchange rate of RMB/EUR curve appears to be higher than the real exchange rate indicating that the RMB is undervalued. This explains that the RMB has depreciated against

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