Cigarette tax measure may have unintended consequences

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Matt Evans
On the surface, this November's Ballot Measure 44 is simplicity itself. The measure will increase taxes on cigarettes by 30 cents per pack, as well as on other tobacco products, and the revenue raised will be dedicated to the Oregon Health Plan and tobacco use reduction programs. What could be more straightforward?
However, the measure raises a host of interesting issues that voters should weigh prior to casting their votes. Most important, of course, is the core of the measure, its purpose: to raise money for the Oregon Health Plan, ostensibly to offset costs the plan incurs from smoking-related illnesses.
State revenue estimators understand that anytime you raise the tax on something, you will get less of it. This is certainly true in the case of Ballot Measure 44 and its effect on cigarette smoking. In fact, the State Legislative Revenue Office estimates that cigarette use will decline about 4.5 percent due to the increased taxation.
In a series of four steps over the past 17 years, Oregon has raised the tax on cigarettes from 9 cents per pack to the current 38 cents. Each of these tax increases represented a smaller amount per pack than Measure 44's 30 cents. In every instance, tobacco use has fallen by more than the current projection of 4.5 percent. In fact, tobacco use fell an average of almost 9 percent--twice the state's estimate--after those four cigarette tax increases. The typical pattern is for cigarette smoking to fall dramatically in the year immediately following the tax hike, but then to recover somewhat in succeeding years. However, use never again reaches its previous levels.
Overall, the cigarette tax rate has quadrupled since 1979-80 while revenues have "only" tripled and usage has declined by 28 percent. Meanwhile, Oregon's population has increased