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The Future of the Middle East

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The Future of the Middle East We often think of the Middle East as a volatile region, but for a time experts saw the region as relatively stable. Entrenched authoritarian regimes were seen as pillars of the region that rested on their coercive apparatus as well as rentierism to maintain their rule. Thus, it came as a shock to experts when the Arab Spring bulldozed regimes that had been in power for as long as forty years. The hope of the Arab Spring was to eradicate the despotic rulers of the Middle East and replace them with democratic institutions. However, this hope has not been realized as civil war, failures of newly democratic institutions and unscathed monarchies continue to plague the region. Still, the Arab Spring is in its infant stage. The outcomes in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria remain to be seen while it appears that the monarchies of the region are stronger than ever. The future of the Middle East will be divided between the monarchies and the republics. The monarchies will most likely keep the status quo (with the help of the United States) while the republics will shape the future of democracy in the region. While it is impossible to predict the future of the Middle East due to a number of factors including the Arab-Israeli and Kurdish conflicts and the drying of oil wells, most experts on the Middle East would agree with the notion that monarchies will continue to remain unscathed in comparison to their non-monarchical neighbors. However, these same people believe in the robustness of authoritarian regimes in the region. Nonetheless, the reasons for this belief are significant. Monarchical regimes can be split into two separate types, dynastic and linchpin, both of which are extremely robust. Dynastic monarchies are able to maintain legitimacy through the tradition of familial rule, use of oil wealth (all dynastic monarchies are also rentier

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