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The Not so Declining Us Economy

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Le taux de chômage est un bon indicateur de santé économique pour un pays. Le fait que le taux de chômage aux États-Unis est en baisse et qu'il passe, pour la première fois en six ans, sous la barre des 6% avec la création d'environ [1]250 000 emplois cette baisse du taux de chômage déjoue plusieurs prédictions qui ne prévoyait pas la baisse du taux de chômage en dessous des 6% avant 2017. Le taux de chômage continue la baisse qu'il à amorcé en juillet de cette année alors qu'il se situait à 6.2%.

Le taux de croissance du PIB est un autre bon indicateur de la santé économique d'un pays et celui des États-Unis est en augmentation pour le second trimestre. Il passe de la plus grave contraction subie par l'économie américaine en cinq ans soit un recul de 2.1% à une augmentation relativement significative soit 4,6%[2]. Ce chiffre qui est le plus élevé depuis 2011 est de bonne augure en ce qui attrait à l'économie des États-Unis.[5]

Le ralentissement présent de l'économie chinoise est une bonne chose pour l'économie américaine. Ce ralentissement qui est dû en partie au vieillissement de la population chinoise. Ce vieillissement entraîne une augmentation des salaires des ouvriers chinois, ce qui à son tour provoque l'augmentation des coûts de productions pour les entreprises étrangères décidant de s'installer dans l'empire du milieu. Comme les coûts de productions des entreprises américaines augmentent ces dernières vont commencer à fermer leurs usines en territoire chinois et les rapatrier en sol américain ce qui devrait entre autres augmenter la création d'emplois et par conséquent bénéficier à l'économie de nos voisins du sud.[3][4]

Le taux de pauvreté des citoyens américains à diminué de 0,5% passant de 15% à 14,5%. Ce taux atteint son niveau le plus bas depuis 2006. Cela indique une reprise de l'économie américaine qui s'effectue lentement mais sûrement depuis la crise économique de 2008.[6]

En 2015, les États-Unis auraient une croissance économique potentielle plus élevée que la moyenne mondiale ce qui démentirait les affirmations voulant que l'économie américaine soit en déclin. Cela signifierait plutôt que cette dernière serait en hausse et non en baisse et dépeindrait une santé économique relativement bonne comparé à plusieurs pays industrialisés dont ceux de la zone Euro et le Royaume-Uni.[7]

Mon opinion est que l'économie Américaine n'est pas en déclin mais qu'elle se remet plutôt de la crise économique qui l'à frappé de plein fouet en 2008. Petit à petit elle tente de remonter à ça gloire d'antan. L'état économique des autres pays du monde, en particulier celui de la Chine semble jouer en faveur de l'Oncle Sam. Car la comme la Chine possède une bonne partie de la dette américaine cette dernière n'a pas intérêt à mettre les États-Unis trop mal en point parce que son économie va elle même en souffrir grandement. Voilà pourquoi, en quelques sorte avec la Chine en terme de garantie les États-Unis ne devraient pas connaître de déclin majeur dans les prochaines années du moins, pas avant que les chinois n'ait trouvé une solution à ce problème. De plus si le taux de chômage continue de diminuer ce qu''il devrait faire avec la hausse de la relocalisation en sol américains des compagnies qui c'étaient établies en Chine.

Pour ce qui est de l'accord de libre-échange entre le Canada et l'Europe je crois que malgré l'entrée de plus de compétition dans le marché canadien/québécois le fait que les producteurs de chez nous auront accès à un marché comportant beaucoup plus de consommateurs va les aider à non seulement écouler leur produits mais aussi à faire mieux connaître ces derniers ce qui ne peut qu'engendrer du positif. [8]

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[ 1 ]. Virginie Montet, http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/etats-unis/201410/03/01-4805941-etats-unis-le-taux-de-chomage-a-son-plus-bas-niveau-en-six-ans.php, la presse
[ 2 ]. France-Presse, http://www.ledevoir.com/economie/actualites-economiques/419614/le-rebond-de-l-economie-americaine-se-confirme-au-deuxieme-trimestre, le devoir
[ 5 ]. N/A, http://fr.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth, trading economics
[ 3 ]. N/A, http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2014/03/13/la-chine-s-inquiete-d-un-possible-ralentissement-economique_4382106_3234.html, le monde
[ 4 ]. Sylvain Larocque, http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/fabrication/201410/03/01-4806172-le-retour-du-made-in-america.php, la presse
[ 6 ]. N/A, http://fr.reuters.com/article/frEuroRpt/idFRL6N0RH4X020140916, thomson reuters
[ 7 ]. Paul Davidson ,http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/10/07/imf-global-forecast/16832929/, usa today
[ 8 ]. Marhieu Carbasse, http://www.lactualite.com/lactualite-affaires/canada-ue-ce-que-laccord-de-libre-echange-va-changer/

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