| |
|NAME : RAUNAK ZATAKIA |
| |
|COURSE : ( BBA / TP / ) |
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|SUPERVISOR : Prof. Tapobrata Ray |
| |
|TITLE : Telecom Industry Marketing |
|DATE : 06.12.2013 |

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment

Of the requirements of the Graduate Degree

BACHELOR IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

J.D.BIRLA INSTITUE

At the

JADAVPUR UNIVERSITY

KOLKATA

The Controller of Examination,

Jadavpur University,

Kolkata

Respected sir,

This research work has been conducted by me and is an original work. The references used have been mentioned in the bibliography.

This research is a partial fulfilment of the requirement for the BBA degree to be awarded by the Jadavpur University.

Yours faithfully,

(Raunak Choudhary)

DECLARATION

I declare the following:

The word count of the dissertation is

The material contained in this dissertation is the end result of my own work. Due acknowledgement has been given in the bibliography and references to all sources be they printed, electronic or personal. I am aware that my dissertation may be submitted to a plagiarism detection service where it will be stored in a database and compared against work submitted from this institute or from any other institutions.

In the event that there is a high degree of similarity in content detected, further investigations may lead to disciplinary actions including the cancellation of my degree according to Jadavpur University rules and regulations.

I declare that ethical issues have been considered, evaluated and appropriately addressed in this research.

I agree to the entire electronic copy or sections of the dissertation to being placed on the e-learning portal, if deemed appropriate, to allow future students the opportunity to see examples of past dissertations and be able to print and download copies if they so desire.

SIGNED:

DATE:

NAME:

ROLL NO:

SUPERVISOR:

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank my mentor, Professor T.Ray, with heartiest respect and gratitude, for guiding me through my dissertation and for being there for me for all my queries. I would also like to thank him for his undying support that he so graciously extended towards us.

I express my thanks to the Director of J.D. Birla institute, Dr. Asit Dutta, for giving me the opportunity to gather such wonderful learning experience.

I am also obliged to my college librarians who have assisted me in finding various references for data collection.

Abstract

Renewable energy in India is a sector that is still underdeveloped. India’s power sector has had two historic challenges — one that has grabbed international headlines and another that has largely flown below the radar. The widespread blackouts that brought much of India to a sputtering halt in 2012 were a dramatic signal of a power sector that requires attention. But a challenge no less central to India’s future, and arguably much more so, is that of the country’s goals for renewable energy.
India was the first country in the world to set up a ministry of non-conventional energy resources, in early 1980s. However its success has been very spotty. In recent years India has been lagging behind other nations in the use of renewable energy (RE). Renewable energy in India comes under the purview of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. The national government’s ambitious goals for solar energy, coupled with the country’s rapid progress in developing wind energy, raise many questions regarding the sources and costs of the investment that will be needed to install and operate this infrastructure.
The field of research is –trying to understand the prospects and viability if any of installing, and generating power and electricity by using renewable and non-conventional sources of energy. It makes an attempt to show the cost-benefit analysis between the conventional and non-conventional sources of energy, on the basis of various factors, and should we diversify into the non-conventional area from the conventional one. In the following research paper we shall study the prospect of the renewable energy sector as an industry by itself and as an addition to the industrial infrastructure available in our country. The exploratory study is to base itself on firstly the understanding of the value of the renewable energy sector in developed countries as of now i.e. the market size, the products and services offered , a brief idea of the companies already present in this sector and their revenues, their R & D investments etc. Based on this analysis, we shall identify the prospect of this industry in India as to how has the industry grown in the last two decades- the prospects here from, understanding of the market as it exists now, products, services required and the estimated size of the market, the major players. This report also describes and analyses the impact of national and state policies on various classes of renewable energy investors, as well as the overall relative costs or benefits of policies on the projects.

Index

|SL. NO. |CONTENTS |PAGE NUMBER |
|1. |INTRODUCTION | |
|2. |LITERATURE REVIEW | |
|3. |HYPOTHESIS | |
|4. |RESEARCH MATHODOLOGY | |
|5. |DATA ANALYSIS | |
|6. |RESULTS & FINDINGS | |
|7. |CONCLUSION | |
| |7.1 Limitations | |
| |7.2 Recommendations | |
| |7.3 Future Scope | |
|8. |ANNEXURE | |
|9. |REFERENCES | |

1. Introduction

1. Renewable Sources of Energy

Renewable energy sources also called non-conventional energy are sources that are continuously replenished by natural processes. For example, solar energy, wind energy, bio-energy (bio-fuels grown sustainably), hydropower etc., are some of the examples of renewable energy sources. A renewable energy system converts the energy found in sunlight, wind, falling-water, sea-waves, geothermal heat, or biomass into a form, we can use such as heat or electricity. Most of the renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from sun and wind and can never be exhausted, and therefore they are called renewable.

Renewable energy sources are essentially flows of energy, whereas the fossil and nuclear fuels are, in essence, stocks of energy.

2. Scope

Renewable energy is energy generated from natural resources—such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat—which are renewable (naturally replenished). In 2009, about 18% of global final energy consumption came from renewables, with 13% coming from traditional biomass, such as wood-burning. Hydroelectricity was the next largest renewable source, providing 3% of global energy consumption and 15% of global electricity generation.

A renewable energy system converts the energy found in sunlight, wind, falling-water, sea-waves, geothermal heat, or biomass into a form, we can use such as heat or electricity. Most of the renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from sun and wind and can never be exhausted, and therefore they are called renewable. However, most of the world's energy sources are derived from conventional sources-fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gases. These fuels are often termed non-renewable energy sources. Although, the available quantity of these fuels are extremely large, they are nevertheless finite and so will in principle 'run out' at some time in the future. Renewable energy sources are essentially flows of energy, whereas the fossil and nuclear fuels are, in essence, stocks of energy.

India’s Power generating capacity is 130,000 MWs. By the year 2030, this is expected to cross 625,000 MWs. Experts say that the Power Generating capacity of India has to increase this phenomenally to ensure 8 to10 per cent GDP growth. According to George Diekun, the Delhi based mission Director, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), about 500MWs of additional capacity has to be established every week over the next 25 years, to ensure 8 per cent GDP growth in India. Conventional sources of energy--- including coal, oil, and gas are unlikely to meet such a demand, for, the costs, both, financial and environmental degradation is very much prohibitive.

India’s coal demand-supply gap is estimated at 105 mn tons in 2012 with a demand of 650 mn tonnes and availability of only 545 mn tonnes, according to Minister of State of Coal, Pratik Prakashbapu Patil.

The demand- supply gap is bridged through imports. The demand is projected to increase to 980.5 million tonnes in the terminal year of XII Plan (2012-17) against which indigenous availability are projected to be 715 million tonne. The availability may increase to 795 million tonnes at the maximum, subject to availability of requisite land for coal mining and all clearances in time.

Therefore, the gap between the demand and indigenous availability is projected to be in the range of 185.5 million tonnes in the minimum to 265.5 million tonnes in the maximum. This gap is to be bridged by import of coal.

According to (IEA) International Energy Agency report of 2002 India’s growing external energy dependency and global emissions from the energy sector and the changes taking place there in, are increasingly important to world energy markets. India is the third-largest producer of hard coal after China and the United States. India imports around 1.4 million barrels of oil per day, 60 per cent of its total needs. This dependency is projected to grow to 85 per cent by 2010 and to over 90 per cent by 2020. India’s crude oil imports are projected to reach 5 million barrels per day in 2020, which is more than 60 per cent of current Saudi Arabian oil production. Energy and electricity will be required for a population that exceeded one billion in 2000 and to fuel an economy that grew at an average annual rate of 7 per cent from 1993 to 1997. India’s central and state governments have begun efforts to reform the power sector. The liberalisation of India’s electricity market, initiated a decade ago, was expected to rationalise consumption and improve the allocation of financial and energy resources. But the Indian power sector is now facing a serious crisis with implications for the country’s overall economic growth and development. CO2 emissions from the power sector represent half of total Indian emissions. They reached 399 million tonnes of CO2 in 1999, out of the 904 million tonnes of CO2 of total emissions. CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production grew at 8.2% per annum, or 93%, since 1990; against 53% for the total emissions. Steam power plants using coal with high ash content and low calorific value have long been identified as major contributors of airborne pollution (Wu & al., 1998).

Though coal based and naphtha based power project are riding over other non-conventional energy sources, environmental problems associated with such mega-projects are many. India’s 67,000 MW of thermal power generating capacity constitutes about 70% of the country’s total power generation capacity. Due to oil shocks of 1970s, oil-fired power generation has come down to 15%. This has increased the dependence on coal based power projects due to 192 billion tones recoverable coal reserves available with India. Both oil-based and coal based power projects have similar environmental problems. Indian is already the sixth largest and second fastest growing contributor to greenhouse gases. Emissions of nitric oxide, sulphur dioxide and particulate matter is expected to treble in the next decade. The greatest unsolved problem with coal based power plants is the fly-ash. Indian coal has an ash content of 45 %. In contrast to most of the other (developed) countries, which stopped promoting coal based thermal plants; these thermal power plants are thriving in India producing 75 million tons of fly-ash. This production is expected to grow to 100 million tonnes in the next millennium. Only 3 % of this is being utilized! If all the bricks in the country were to be made of fly-ash, only 5% of 75 million tonnes will be put to use. These toxic emissions are ruining historical monuments, such as the Taj Mahal. Based on a public interest petition, Supreme Court has ordered to stop burning coal in and around Taj Mahal. Naphtha based power project, like that commissioned in Dhabol in Maharashtra and like that going to be commissioned in Karnataka in collaboration with American based ABB company, are going to be no better than coal based power projects as far as protecting the environment is concerned.

According to the World Energy Outlook 2007 by (IEA) Indian coal-fired power stations have suffered from low plant load factors, low unit availability and low unit efficiencies relative to their counterparts in OECD countries. Even within the coal-fired sector, considerable differences in performance are evident between some of the units run by the State Electricity Boards (SEBs) and those run by the private sector and NTPC. NTPC's power plants operate at higher capacity factors and their performance deteriorates less rapidly, demonstrating that good operational practice and maintenance are essential for improved efficiency. The performance of the sub-200 MW units, which account for 20% of coal-fired generating capacity, has been identified by the Ministry of Power as particularly poor. The poor performance of the coal-fired power stations can be attributed largely to: Lower-quality coal supply to the plants, relative to that specified during design, particularly involving higher ash content. Design and manufacturing deficiencies, compounded by inadequate operation and maintenance regimes resulting in prolonged and repetitive forced outages; together with undue delay in implementing the renovation and modernisation programme for the ageing fleet. Inadequate and untimely availability of spare parts, especially for the ageing stock of imported equipment. Lack of properly trained manpower for the operation and maintenance of the plant. The operators' lack of cash, caused by poor financial results, lies behind or aggravates these problems. The general performance of coal-fired units could be improved by enforcing a stricter coal quality control regime, in co-operation with the coal suppliers and the government; expanding the use of coal washing to lower the average ash content; introducing circulating fluidised bed combustion which can handle a wide variation of ash content, volatile matter and moisture content; promoting coal-blending wherever required in addition to coal quality control; mandating a timely renovation and modernisation regime of ageing coal plants, particularly those belonging to the SEBs to improve the average operating efficiency; offering regular training of the plant personnel with improved operation practices, particularly for the poorly performing SEB plants.

3. Growth of renewable

From the end of 2004 to the end of 2008, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity increased six fold to more than 16 gig watts (GW), wind power capacity increased 250 per cent to 121 GW, and total power capacity from new renewables increased 75 per cent to 280 GW. During the same period, solar heating capacity doubled to 145 giga watts-thermal (GWth), while biodiesel production increased six fold to 12 billion liters per year and ethanol production doubled to 67 billion litres per year.

The key drivers for renewable energy are the following: O The demand-supply gap, especially as population increases O A large untapped potential O Concern for the environment O The need to strengthen India’s energy security

O Pressure on high-emission industry sectors from their shareholders O A viable solution for rural electrification

Coal is still the major source of electricity. Also, with a commitment to rural electrification, the Ministry of Power has accelerated the Rural Electrification Program with a target of 100,000 villages by 2012.

It is said that between 2020 and 2050, fossil fuel demands will push prices higher than we have ever seen; hopefully this will be the next big step to the more widespread use of renewable energy sources. India is not just focusing on wind energy, and is currently investing in solar energy technologies due to the efficient location of India. The use of solar energy in India has the potential to provide much of the population with not only electricity, but also hot water.

The current capacity of wind energy in India stands at around 7,000 MW (2007), this shows how the average annual increase of Indian wind energy is set at a fantastic 1,000 MW per year. Mainly driven by the increase in energy demand, India faces to see a much larger capacity of wind energy production for the future.

4. Indian Energy Facts

The economy of India has the second-fastest rate of increase in GDP in the world – 7.1% in 2008. The country accounts for a third of the world's population without access to electricity. Five different ministries have structurally handled the Indian energy sector, among them the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. India is probably the only country in the world with a dedicated ministry for renewable energy development. The country ranks sixth in the world in terms of total energy consumption and needs to accelerate development of the energy sector to meet its growth aspirations. Though rich in coal and abundantly endowed with renewable energy in the form of solar, wind, hydro and bio-energy, India has very small hydrocarbon reserves (0.4% of the world’s total). Being a net importer of energy, more than 35% of the country’s primary energy needs are ensured through import.

5. Unlimited potential for solar PV in India

India is a beautiful country well-known for spicy food, people and long hours of sunshine. Even the hours of sunshine in Spain can by no means compete with, for instance, the State of Rajasthan in India. This State, with between 1800 and 2200 hours of sun each year, is putting together a plan to develop at least 50 MW of PV power plants. And this is only the beginning. The potential for solar PV in Rajasthan, with its vast area of sunny desert, is infinite. And India has many more States with great potential, Gujarat, for example, where a 500 MW plan was commissioned recently. Although the feed-in tariff proposed by the Indian national government is not particularly attractive (15 INR/kWh for 10 years), Indian PV project developers are queuing up. More than three gigawatts of proposals have been submitted. Clearly, many developers recognize the long term potential of this country with its ever increasing GDP.

6. India’s energy challenge

India needs more power day by day because of the increase in demand for power and growing population. Not only to cover its daily power shortfalls, but also to support its economic development. According to CEA, the peak demand in 2008 was 120 gigawatts of power, while only 98 gigawatts could be supplied. According to an analysis by the Indian PV project developer Aston field, quoting the President of India Energy Review, this deficit is likely to grow to 25 gigawatts by 2012. The targeted share of renewable energy is 24% for 2031, with the amount of solar energy increasing to 56 gigawatts of installed power.

The average electricity consumption in India is still among the lowest in the world at just 630 kWh per person per year, but this is expected to grow to 1000 kWh within coming years.

Every month, 8-10 million new mobile phones are connected in India. This is an interesting market segment for solar PV as well: thousands of new GSM poles will be needed across the country. 7. Energy trends in India

India emerged in 2008 as an aspiring producer of solar PV. Both National and State Governments announced new policies to support solar PV manufacturing in special economic zones, including capital investment subsidies of 20 per cent. These policies led to USD 18 billion in new solar PV manufacturing investment plans or proposals by a large number of companies.

The optimum use and development of various forms of energy and making energy available at affordable rates is one of the primary concerns of the Government of India. India’s energy supply comes from different sources: coal, hydropower, oil and gas, and various form of non-conventional energy. Looking at the need for an appropriate energy policy to sustain faster and more inclusive growth, the Government of India has recently brought out an Integrated Energy Policy linked with sustainable development that covers all sources of energy and takes into consideration all aspects of energy use and supply, including energy security, access and availability, affordability and pricing, as well as efficiency and environmental concerns. The Policy states that solar power particularly could be an important player in country attaining energy independence in the long run.

India is ranked the third most attractive country to invest in renewable energy, after USA and Germany, in the Ernst and Young Country attractiveness indices.

To better understand the current situation in India and the future of the renewable energies market, it is important to look at the trends in energy consumption, growth of the current grid, and the availability of transportation and equipment used there.

Since thermal generation is based on burning coal or oil, increases in CO2 emissions, which damage the environment and affect global warming, accompany this growth. As the graph below shows, it also increases the dependence on imports, which will continue into the future unless the policy changes.

a) Energy Generation and Consumption from 2000 to 2008

Table: Total Renewable Electricity Net Consumption (Billion Kilowatt-hours)

| | |2000 | |
| |2| |2| |
| |0| |0| |
| |0| |0| |
| |0| |1| |
|2000 |
| |2000 | | |2001 | | |2002 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
|112.1854 |122.725 |127.013 |131.662 |137.292 |142.932 |149.669 |158.953 |NA |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
|# Table: Total Renewable Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts) | |
|2000 |2001 |2002 |2003 |2004 |2005 |2006 |2007 |2008 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
|26.81537 |28.418 |29.314 |32.397 |34.673 |37.676 |42.119 |44.437 |NA |

# Table: Total Electricity Installed capacity: NA=Not available

Source: International Energy Statistics, U.S energy information administration.

b) The breakdown of energy sources for power production of India in 2005

India is a large consumer of coal, which makes up more than 57% of its total consumption.

However, more than 1/3 of energy consumed comes from renewable resources, predominantly from large hydropower.

India relies heavily on coal energy to produce electricity. A strong second is hydro power, followed by natural gas. The consumption of all renewable energies represents fully one third of the total consumption. This is a significant figure, and we will see later that this sector has a great future.

c) Distribution of the different kinds of plants and lines of transportation

As mentioned, India relies principally on coal for 57% of total energy consumption. As we can see on the map, coal production is extensive and is located in central and north-eastern parts of the country. Hydro power plants are distributed along the west coast from the southern tip to about ¾ the way up the coast, in the extreme north, and some in the east from rivers flowing from the Himalayas.

Except for the fact that the gas and products line don’t extend, the country has the largest railway network in Asia and the second largest in the world under a single management. Roads are taking developmental changes to the most remote corners of the country.

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/india/indiamap.htm

(d) India Energy grid

Nearly 85% of the villages have been electrified, and there is a nationwide grid for the transmission and distribution of power.

Source: www.geni.org

The electric network is extensive throughout India with 440 kW or 750 kW power lines. The main power grid is still concentrated in the north on a north-west/south-east axis, from Afghanistan to the Bay of Bengal and on a second axis from Bombay on the central west coast to the north-east of India, through Bhutan.

The above map indicates that new 440kW power lines have been approved or proposed to expand the network further. Those proposed lines will be located mainly on the east coast.

2. Literature Review

India has done a significant progress in the power generation in the country. The installed generation capacity was 1300 megawatt (MW) at the time of Independence i.e. about 60 year’s back. The total generating capacity anticipated at the end of the Tenth Plan on 31-03-2007, is 1, 44,520 MW which includes the generation through various sectors like Hydro, Thermal and Nuclear. The power generation in the country is planned through funds provided by the Central Sector, State Sector and Private Sector. The power shortages noticed is of the order of 11%. In the opinion of the experts such short fall can be reduced through proper management and thus almost 40% energy can be saved. It has been noticed that one watt saved at the point of consumption is more than 1.5 watts generated. In terms of Investment it costs around Rs.40 million to generate one MW of new generation plant, but if the same Rs.40 million is spent on conservation of energy methods, it can provide up to 3 MW of avoidable generation capacity.

There are about 80,000 villages yet to be electrified for which provision has been made to electrify 62,000 villages from grid supply in the Tenth Plan. It is planned that participation of decentralized power producers shall be ensured, particularly for electrification of remote villages in which village level organizations shall play a crucial role for the rural electrification programme.

Emphasis is given to the renewable energy programme towards gradual commercialization. This programme is looked after by the Ministry of Non-Conventional Sources of energy. Simultaneously private sector investments in renewable energy sources are also increased to promote power generation. So far an excessive reliance was preferred on the use of fossil fuel resources like coal, oil and natural gas to meet the power requirement of the country which was not suitable in the long run due to limited availability of the fossil fuel as well as the adverse impact on the environment and ecology. Since the availability of fossil fuel is on the decline therefore, in this backdrop the norms for conventional or renewable sources of energy (RSE) is given importance not only in India but has attracted the global attention.

The main items under RSE are as follows:

Hydro Power

Solar Power

Wind Power

Bio-mass Power

Energy from waste

Ocean energy

Alternative fuel for surface transportation

Hydro Power

India is endowed with a large potential of hydro power, of which only 17% has been harnessed so far. The hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable source of energy. It has been felt that there is a long gestation period in hydro projects due to delays in forest and environment clearance, rehabilitation of the project effected people besides inter-state disputes and construction holdups due to several reasons. Under RSE only small hydro projects are considered since they do not require large poundage and have the capacity to provide power to remote and hilly terrain where extension of the grid system is either un-economic or not possible. It has been estimated that the potential available in the country under small hydropower schemes is of the order of 15000 MW in which the plans that are considered are up to 25 MW capacity individually which are classified as small hydro projects under the Ministry of Non-Conventional Sources of energy. The small hydro power stations are mostly located in hilly areas and are given priority for local benefits to the residents which provide them gainful employment through the energy potential.

Solar Power

The climatic condition in India provides abundant potential of solar power due to large scale radiation available during a wider part of the year due to tropical condition in the country. The solar power can be developed for long term use through the application of solar photo- voltaic (SPV) Technology which provides a potential of 20MW per sq. Km. The other method for Utilization of solar energy is through the adoption of solar thermal Technology. The programmes are under way to utilize SPV by connecting to grid power systems.

It has come to notice from a report of Xinhva news agency that Shanghai, the business capital of China, is launching a 100000 rooftop solar photo voltaic (SPV) system which would generate 430 million KWH of electricity which would be enough to supply power to the entire city for two days.

The other popular use is by stand- alone applications which include solar powered street lights, domestic lights, water pumps etc. The cost of the photo SPV modules is quite expensive which is in the range of $ 3-4 per watt, in spite of best efforts, the price could not come down in India, China and other countries. The effort is to bring the price down to $ 1 per watt when it may be more popular for use. The efforts to use amorphous silicon technology were cheaper but its long terms use is not practicable. The SPV technology if cheap, would be useful for people living in far - flung areas as extending grid would involve high cost.

The solar thermal devices are widely used in the country for various purposes such as solar water heaters, solar cookers, solar dryers etc. There is wide scope for development of solar thermal application for which the research is in progress. The energy obtained through Solar Thermal route is 35 MW per sq. km.

Wind Power

The wind power development in the country is largely of recent period which has been found to be quite impressive. As per available data, it is 5340 MW by March 31, 2006, through wind power. Earlier it was estimated that the potential for wind power in the country was 20,000 MW which has been revised to 45000MW after collecting the data on the potential available in the coastal and other areas of the country. At present India is fifth in the world after Germany, USA, Denmark and Spain in terms of wind power. It has been observed that the private sector is showing interest in setting of wind power projects. The unit size of wind turbine generators which were earlier in the range of 55-100 kw are now preferred in the range of 750-1000 kw. It has been observed that the productivity of the larger machine is higher as compared to the smaller machine. In respect of cost consideration, it has been noticed that the cost of such a project is about Rs.40 million to Rs.50 million per MW which includes all local civil, electrical works and erection also. The life of a wind power project is estimated to be about 20 years.

China has guaranteed all certified renewable energy producers in its service area that the grid will purchase their power and the price will be spread out to all the users across the grid. According to sources, such commitments can only spur further development in the renewable energy sector.

Bio-mass Power

There is quite a high energy potential available in the country in resources such as firewood, agro residues and animal wastes. These resources are mainly utilized by the rural population of the country. It has been estimated that there is a potential to install 19500 MW capacity through biomass conservation technologies like combustion, gasification, incineration and also bagasse – based co- generation in sugar mills. So far only around 380 MW of this potential has been tapped and there is wide scope for expanding the size of their use for the benefit of the majority of the rural population to meet their energy needs.

Energy from Waste

It has been estimated that there is about 30 million tonnes by solid waste and 4400 million cubic meters of liquid waste generated every year in urban areas through domestic as well as commercial establishment. The manufacturing sector also contributes high quantity of waste. It has been estimated that through garbage there is a potential to generate 1700 MW of electricity. However all these activities are still to be given a practical shape.

Ocean Energy

The Ocean on the earth covers about 71% of the total surface which collects and store solar energy. If this energy is quantified in terms of Oil, it can be said that an amount of solar radiation equivalent in heat content to about 245 billion barrels of oil is absorbed by the sea. The energy available in the Ocean is clean, continuous and renewable. In future it would be possible to tap energy from the sea.

Hydel Power Generation has its own woes. Nuclear power is never the right option (unless it is through nuclear fusion).India is blessed with a long coast line of 7,500kms and has enormous potential for Ocean Energy. This is the Energy that can ensure the 10 per cent or above GDP growth of India. Ocean Energy is for ‘free’. It is only the installation costs. Entire world could be powered with the Ocean Energy. Govt. of India is encouraging Wind Energy and Solar Energy. The following facts should be taken into consideration while considering ocean energy. Availability factor for Wind Energy and Solar Energy is just 20 to 30 per cent only (However, for wind energy, this factor could be improved 60% to 80% with innovative techniques).Availability factor for Ocean Energy is over 90 per cent. Every 1000MWs of Solar Energy gives out 10,000MWs of heat directly into the atmosphere. Water moving at 8 knots has the same energy as Wind blowing at 217knots. Water molecules in Ocean Waves, are given momentum of velocity, greater than 8 knots. Wind Turbines are shut down when wind speeds exceed 90 kms per hour. However, Ocean energy turbines can withstand and take all the energy of the ocean waves, ocean tides, and ocean currents. Winds are intermittent and unpredictable and off-shore winds are just 20 per cent stronger than on inlands. On the other hand, Ocean energy is continuous and predictable. Ocean waves, ocean tides and ocean currents collect and carry energy over thousands of kilometres with little loss. Ocean energy varies in intensity, and is available 24hours a day and 365days a year. And this energy can be tapped right on our shores. At depths of over 10 meters, Ocean wave energy is three to eight times of what we see near the shore. Compressibility ratio between sea water and air is 1:832. Water turbine of 4 to 8 meters equals wind turbine of 80 meters. With wind energy, small single generators of up to 3.6MWs only, can be run. With Ocean Energy, large single generators of up to 100MWS or more can be run, from the energy obtained in a stretch of one kilometre or more, to get continuous power of 60MWs to over 100MWs.

Alternative fuel for surface transportation

Hydrocarbons used as fuels for transportation are to be replaced by other eco-friendly fuels for surface transport vehicles. Many options such as compressed natural gas (CNG), battery – powered vehicles and fuel cells are currently available.

The use of diesel in transportation in Delhi was causing pollution in the air. The Government has adopted CNG use for all vehicles using diesel fuel, which has improved the environment significantly

Global warming and climate change

It has been felt that there is raising demand for energy, food and raw materials by a population of 1.2 billion Indians. India has a large coal dominated energy system in the world and the use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil releases carbon dioxide (Co2) into the air which adds to the greenhouse gases which lead to global warming. At present US is the largest contributor of Co2 emissions but the development in India and China is going to increase their share in emission of such a gas. According to Kyoto Protocol this has to be controlled. Climate change shall be a cause of extinction of many bird varieties and other animals on the earth.

Renewable source of energy is the best solution for such a problem in the world. India is trying to develop its technology in this regard. India has the world’s fourth largest wind power industry.

Wind Power could generate almost 29 per cent of the world’s electricity by 2030 and was growing faster than any other clean energy source, a wind business group and environmental lobby Greenpeace said. ‘At good locations wind can compete with the cost of both coal and gas-fired Power’ the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Greenpeace said in a study, ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006’.The two said that wind, which now accounts for 0.8 per cent of the world’s electricity supply, was expanding faster than other renewable energies such as solar, geothermal or tidal power in a shift from fossil fuels.

There have been cases of farmers committing suicides due to poverty and failure of crop in some parts of India. A World Bank study released has found a correlation between climate change and farmer suicides. It says poor farmers who are unable to adapt to changing climates fall into debt and later, death traps. It can be surmised that energy development should be preferable by adopting measures which does not give rise to greenhouse gasses as it would effect change in climate leading to overall difficulties to the people who are accustomed to the climate as prevailing on the earth.

Employment Opportunities

It is well known that energy sector has its own impact on the progress and development of any nation. The availability of various energy resources and in-house capability to use it in the appropriate manner for productive development of a nation is the key factor in the economic growth of the country. The energy crisis all over the world in the seventies warned the mankind and forced to think about the appropriate utilization of the energy resources on the earth for the sustainable development. The energy crisis had led to many innovations as well as research and development programmes in all sectors related to the energy. With global climate change issues occupying a prominent position in science and technology, industry and international relations, the role of renewable energy, energy conservation and energy management has come into a sharp focus in recent years.
This sector offers multiple job roles starting from non-technical to highly technical and senior management jobs. People with the knowledge and experience in the renewable energy are extremely valuable but people with transferable skills from other sectors can also be absorbed well. According to Juliet Davenport, chief executive of green energy supplier Good Energy, the renewable sector is “one of the few areas where growth is certain for the foreseeable future” .Type of few job roles in various categories could be:

Non-Technical: Customer care, Marketing, HR, PR, sales, financing etc. are the roles for enthusiastic people with transferable skills.

➢ Technical: People from various engineering streams like biomedical, civil, mechanical, chemical, electrical etc. are meant for such roles as they are the backbones of renewable energy sectors for production, development, installation and customer support roles.

➢ Senior Management: People with sufficient knowledge of this industry along with good decision making power as in other industries can be absorbed for the roles of CEOs, CFOs or business development or any other decision making position.

➢ Government jobs: Policy makers, planning and development, researchers in renewable sectors etc.

➢ Trading market: Again people with transferable skills and some knowledge of renewable energy sector can be absorbed here.

➢ Software professionals: This is a profession which is applicable to any field as IT has become life line for any kind of business to develop and grow. The Projected number of green jobs could reach to 100 million in next 20 years. This means that approximately 2% of total global workforce would be employed in renewable energy jobs out of estimated 5 billion by 2030.

3. Hypothesis

Aim of the Research

The aim of the research is to state that we should divert our attention to use renewable and non-conventional sources of generating power, since it one of the most important needs of the present and future and diverting from conventional source of energy would be economic, cost effective on consumption as well as eco-friendly in the long term.

The necessity of installing, and generating power and electricity in India by using renewable and non-conventional sources of energy to tap rural and semi-rural areas in India.

4. Research Methodology

4.1. Field of Research

The field of research is - the necessity of installing, and generating power and electricity by using renewable and non-conventional sources of energy.

Power and electricity plays a vital role in the survival of our society. An attempt to show the cost-benefit analysis between the conventional and non-conventional sources of energy, on the basis of various factors, is the main highlight of the project, and why should we diversify into the non-conventional area from the conventional one.

4.2. Purpose of Research

Power and electricity being an integral part of the society is a matter of concern for everybody. Power and electricity generation, has been, is and will be, an essential service for us. The central and state governments play a vital role in the power sector. They account for over 70-85% of the total installed capacity of power and electricity that is generated, transmitted and distributed in and throughout India. Of these more than 70% are coal, oil, and diesel or natural gas based thermal power plants, which emit green-house gases into the atmosphere, and also releases wastes. Not only do the thermal power plants have an adverse impact on the ecological condition of the nation, but the cost of financing and running these plants are also very high.

The few nuclear power plants which have been installed by the government, is also not good enough. The nuclear waste produced through them is even more dangerous than the gases and wastes emitted from the thermal power plants. The procurement nuclear technology, the research and development cost, uranium and other raw materials is very costly. The former being secondary, the nation lacks the strength of skilled personnel who can guide and help in managing and running the nuclear power stations, and also disposing of the toxic waste to a location which is safe for the surrounding environment and the habitants.

Thus, in order to curb the various financial, social and environmental costs, government has started to invest and promote in the research and development of the renewable and non-conventional sources of energy for generating power and electricity. Not only does it participate but also invites private investors and corporate bodies to join this process by giving subsidies, loans and tax holidays and various other benefits.

4.2. Data

The term data refers to qualitative or quantitative attributes of a variable or set of variables. Data (plural of "datum") are typically the result of measurements Research is common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic. In fact, research is an art of investigation. According to Clifford Woody research comprises defining and redefining problems, formulating hypothesis or suggested solutions, collecting, organizing and evaluating data, making deductions and reaching conclusions; and at last carefully testing the conclusions to determine whether they fit the formulating hypothesis. Like every subject this topic of the handloom sector has also been thoroughly researched and the relevant information has been rightly used.
Data is a collection of facts, such as values or measurements. It can be numbers, words, measurements, observations or even just descriptions of things. Data could be of the following two types:

4.2.1 Qualitative & Quantitative Data

The term qualitative data is used to describe a type of information that can be counted or expressed numerically. This type of data is often collected in experiments, manipulated and statistically analysed. Quantitative data can be represented visually in graphs, histograms, tables and charts.

Quantitative data are those which focus on numbers and frequencies rather than on meaning and experience. Quantitative data (e.g. experiments, questionnaires and psychometric tests) provide information which is easy to analyze statistically and fairly reliable. Quantitative data are associated with the scientific and experimental approach and are criticized for not providing an in depth description. The two means of collecting data are:

4.2.2. Primary Data

It is a term for data collected on source which has not been subjected to processing or any other manipulation. It is the Data that has been compiled for a specific purpose, and has not been collated or merged with others. Primary data is always collected from first-hand experience.

4.2.3. Secondary Data

Secondary data is data collected by someone other than the user. Common sources of secondary data for social science include censuses, surveys, organizational records and data collected through qualitative methodologies or qualitative research. Primary data, by contrast, are collected by the investigator conducting the research.

Secondary data analysis saves time that would otherwise be spent collecting data and, particularly in the case of quantitative data, provides larger and higher-quality databases than would be unfeasible for any individual researcher to collect on their own. In addition to that, analysts of social and economic change consider secondary data essential, since it is impossible to conduct a new survey that can adequately capture past change and/or developments.

4.3. Method

The method of least squares assumes that the best-fit curve of a given type is the curve that has the minimal sum of the deviations squared (least square error) from a given set of data.

Suppose that the data points are [pic], [pic], ..., [pic] where [pic] is the independent variable and [pic] is the dependent variable. The fitting curve [pic] has the deviation (error) [pic] from each data point, i.e., [pic], [pic], ..., [pic]. According to the method of least squares, the best fitting curve has the property that:

[pic]

In regression analysis the researcher specifies an empirical model. For example, a very common model is the straight line model which is used to test if there is a linear relationship between dependent and independent variable. If a linear relationship is found to exist, the variables are said to be correlated. However, correlation does not prove causation, as both variables may be correlated with other, hidden, variables, or the dependent variable may "reverse" cause the independent variables, or the variables may be otherwise spuriously correlated.

R2:

R-Square (R^2) is the proportion of variation in the dependent variable (Y) that can be explained by the predictors (X variables) in the regression model. The value r2 is a fraction between 0.0 and 1.0, and has no units. The r2 value of 0.0 means that knowing X does not help you predict Y. When r2 equals 1.0, all points lie exactly on a straight line with no scatter. Knowing X lets you predict Y perfectly.

Adjusted R2:

Adjusted R-Square is computed using the formula 1-((1-R^2)*(N-1)/(N-k-1)).
When the number of observations (N) is small and the number of predictors (k) is large, there will be a much greater difference between R-Square and adjusted R-Square (because the ratio of (N-1)/ (N-k-1) will be much less than 1).
By contrast, when the number of observations is very large compared to the number of predictors, the value of R-Square and adjusted R-Square will be much closer because the ratio of (N-1)/ (N-k-1) will approach 1.

P-Value:

P value is associated with a test statistic. It is "the probability, if the test statistic really were distributed as it would be under the null hypothesis, of observing a test statistic [as extreme as, or more extreme than] the one actually observed."

The smaller the P value, the more strongly the test rejects the null hypothesis, that is, the hypothesis being tested.

A p-value of .05 or less rejects the null hypothesis "at the 5% level" that is, the statistical assumptions used imply that only 5% of the time would the supposed statistical process produce a finding this extreme if the null hypothesis were true.

Correlation & Coefficient:

Correlation is used to denote the degree of association between variables. If two variables x and y are so related that variations in the magnitude of one variable tend to be accompanied by variations in the magnitude of other variables, they are said to be correlated. If y tends to increase as x increases, the variables are said to be positively related. If y tends to decrease as x increases the variables are negatively correlated. If the values of y are not affected by changes in the value of x, the variables are said to be uncorrelated.

Possible correlations range from +1 to –1. A zero correlation indicates that there is no relationship between the variables. A correlation of –1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, meaning that as one variable goes up, the other goes down. A correlation of +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, meaning that both variables move in the same direction together.
The correlation coefficient ‘r’ is independent of the choice of both origin and scale of observations the correlation coefficient ‘r’ is a pure number and is independent of the units of measurement. The correlation coefficient
‘r’ lies between –1& +1.

Research Methodology

The quantitative information regarding the topic has been recorded from the CMIE report Energy Department under the Economic Intelligence service. Few articles have been taken from websites that are involved in the Energy research area. Reference from various pdfs published by, professors, government bodies and certain related organisations has also been made, together with the annual reports of certain hydro, wind and thermal, power generating companies. There is present, some material, from articles of few writers in involved in the related field.

5. Data Analysis

The form of quantitative data represented here is secondary data. Secondary data means that the data is already available, i.e., it refers to data which has already been collected and analysed by someone else.

5.1. Descriptive Analysis

Annexure – Table 1, Chart 1

With respect to the available quantitative data, and the figure, thus derived, reflects that, over the years there has been a rapid increase in the installation of thermal power plants as compared to the hydro power plant or any other renewable or non-conventional source of fuel that can generate power. This increase, if continues so rapidly, then in the future we shall face a big problem in generating power, and also in other developing regions where coal and other conventional source of fuel and energy is required.

Annexure – Table 2, Chart 2

As we can see that the gross generation of thermal power has is high, but the fact remains that all thermal power plants run at a plant load factor of 75-85% only, whereas the hydro power plants run at a plant load factor of 89-98%. This means that, the hydro power plants have the ability to run at almost full capacity as compared to the thermal power plant, without adding to the cost of the nation as a whole. In fact it contributes more to the nation than it actually costs.

A plant load factor is a measure of average capacity utilization. If the PLF is affected by non-availability of fuel, maintenance shut-down, unplanned break down and no off-take (as consumption pattern fluctuates lower in nights), the generation has to be adjusted. Power (electricity) storage is not feasible. A generation of power is controlled to match the off-take. For any duration, a power plant generates below its full capacity. To that extent it is a capacity loss.

Annexure – Table 3, Chart 3

Again, if we go through the figure of coal reserves life trend, it shows us a logarithmic regression, which shows a decreasing trend for the life of coal. In other words, it indicates that, coal supplies and reserves shall exhaust in the future, which is a known fact. Thus, in order to keep the power sector alive and growing, it is important to divert into the research and development and production of power through the renewable natural resources available to us.

Annexure – Table 4, Chart 4

It reflects that, Renewable sources other than hydro power (actual achievements as per MNRE and 10th Five Year Plan), has been successful to install almost more than 90%, every year, capacity to generate power. Thus, we can say or estimate that there is a possibility to substitute renewable sources, for power generation, to fossil fuel. Thus we can save the conventional sources or non-renewable sources from getting exhausted earlier than estimated.

Annexure – Table (5, 5.1, 5.2)

The table depicts the coal reserves which have declined over the years. This has been taken as the fixed variable and the renewable sources of power which have been installed in those respective years, in order to depict a relationship between the two.

Table 5.1

Regression: Regression is concerned with the prediction of the value of one variable when the value of the other variable is known. In the given data, the life (in years) of coal reserves is considered to be fixed, or in other words, it is the independent variable. On the other hand, the installed capacity of renewable resources in India is considered to be the dependent variable. The tables derived are from the SPSS Software, which has estimated the values of the required data.

Table 5.2

Correlation: The word Correlation is used to denote the degree of association between variables. If two variables x and y are so related that variations in magnitude of one variable tend to be accompanied by variations in magnitude of the other variable, they are said to be correlated. If y tends to increase if x increases, the variables are said to be positively correlated and if y tends to decrease, if x increases, they are said to be negatively correlated. If the values of y are unaffected by changes in the value of x, the variables are said to be unrelated.

The correlation coefficient is -0.98 in the given table. This means that the association between the life of coal reserves and the number of installed renewable sources of power has a negative correlation. As the life of coal reserves declines, the installation of renewable sources of power increases.

Annexure – 6, Chart 6

The forecasted values, and the graph thus derived from them, show that there will be good and rapid growth in installing additional capacity of renewable energy sources, like wind, bio-gas, and solar power, than hydro-power, year on year or each year. Thus reducing the burden from conventional power sources, and solving power related problems in major industrial and rural areas also.

Annexure – (Table 7, Chart 7 and Table 7.1, Chart 7.1)

In the current scenario, we can see that contribution from the renewable sources of energy has grown from a mere 25-30% to a good 35-45%. Initially, the hydro power plants were a major contributor to the power sector under the renewable sources, but now, there is contribution of wind turbines, bio-gas, and recyclable wastes also. We can see that there is a sense of realization to go for green energy sources, and in future the scenario will be quite different -displayed by the pie-chart derived from the forecasted data, where the thermal power is reduced to 49% (Table 7.1, Chart 7.1)

6. Results and Findings

As a country, the threat of global warming looms over us like an ominous cloud. We are constantly told to change our ways and the energy that we use, or face the consequences. However, as of now, we are entirely too dependent on fossil fuels even though we are aware of the harm they can cause. Because of this threat, various companies are considering the use of alternative sources of energy. An alternative source of energy is generally energy that cannot be used up completely, in other words, is renewable. For example, companies are turning to solar and wind power, as well as alternative fuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel. Due to the detrimental effects fossil fuels have on the environment, the harvesting of renewable energy resources would be a step in the right direction to saving the planet. Rapid economic expansion will continue to drive up India’s energy needs. Power generation accounts for much of the increase in primary energy demand, given surging electricity demand in industry, and in residential and commercial buildings, with most new generating capacity fuelled by coal.

Among end use sectors, transport energy demand sees the fastest rate of growth as the vehicle stock expands rapidly with rising economic activity and household incomes. In the absence of strong policy action, higher energy demand will drive up imports of oil, gas and coal, and greenhouse gas emissions. Primary energy demand in India more than doubles by 2030. Power generation capacity, most of it coal fired, more than triples between now and 2030. Coal remains India’s most important fuel, its use nearly tripling between 2005 and 2030. Much of India’s coal needs from now to 2030 will have to be met by imports. India will continue to rely on imported coal for reasons of quality in the steel sector and for economic reasons at power plants located a long way from mines but close to ports. Hard coal imports are projected to raise almost seven fold. Before 2025, India overtakes Japan to become the world’s third largest net importer of oil, after the United States and China. Net oil imports also grow steadily, to 6 mb/d in 2030, as proven reserves of indigenous oil are small. The share of imports in oil demand climbs to 90% in 2030. Yet India’s importance as a major exporter of refined oil products will also grow, assuming the necessary investments are forthcoming. Gas production is projected to peak between 2020 and 2030, and then fall back. A growing share of India’s gas needs is, therefore, met by imports, entirely in the form of liquefied natural gas. Further pricing reform will determine whether the requisite supply infrastructure is built in a timely manner. Between now and 2030, India needs to invest about $1.25 trillion (in year 2006) in energy infrastructure– three quarters in the power sector. Gross power generation capacity additions exceed 400 GW equal to today’s combined capacity of Japan, Korea and Australia. Attracting electricity investment in a timely manner will be crucial for sustaining economic growth. India becomes the world’s third largest emitter of carbon-dioxide by 2015. It ranked fifth in 2005. Two-thirds of India’s emissions come from burning coal, mainly in power stations. This share will increase slightly by 2030. Per-capita CO2 emissions double over the Outlook period, but, in 2030, are still well below those in the OECD today. Stronger policies that the Indian government is now considering could yield large energy savings. In the Alternative Policy Scenario, coal savings – mainly in power generation –are the greatest in both absolute and percentage terms, thanks to lower electricity demand growth, higher power generation efficiency and fuel switching in the power sector and in industry. Coal imports in 2030 are little more than half their level while oil imports are 1.1 mob/d lower.

In the Alternative Policy Scenario, lower overall energy consumption, combined with a larger share of less carbon intensive fuels in the primary energy mix, yields savings of 27% in CO2 emissions by 2030. Emissions are reduced by 0.9 Gt in 2030. Lower energy demand in the power and transport sectors also reduces SO2 emissions by 27% and NO2 emissions by 23% in 2030.

In the High Growth Scenario, primary demand is 16% higher than in the Reference Scenario, with coal and oil accounting for most of the difference. Faster economic growth accelerates the alleviation of energy

Poverty, but results in much higher energy imports, local pollution and CO2 emissions, if no new policies, are introduced.

The electrification rate in 2030 in India reaches 96% but nearly 60 million people in rural areas will still lack access. Today, there are some 412 million people without access to electricity in India. In all three WEO scenarios, the number of people without access declines. In that scenario, virtually all households in India have access to electricity in 2030.

As people continue to pollute the environment, it is becoming increasingly obvious that, as a country, our future rests in the promise of renewable and alternative energy sources. Even giant corporations are taking notice of this growing trend. Ethanol is an alcohol that can be made from corn or sugar cane. It is much more efficient seeing as it uses one-third less energy than gasoline does. It is in fact, so efficient, that it is often used in high performance vehicles so as to not produce engine knock. (Alternative fuels & advanced vehicles data center) Not only that, but it is completely renewable. Therefore, simply for that fact, it should be considered above gasoline. However, although promising, ethanol is not the only resource to be evaluated.

Another alternative to petroleum based gasoline is biodiesel. Biodiesel is another form of fuel that is completely renewable and burns cleanly as well as being easy to obtain seeing as it can be developed here in the United States. (Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center) Most large trucks you see on the road today run on large amounts of diesel fuel, which release harmful toxins into the air. Since trucks are larger than the majority of vehicles on the road, their emissions into the environment are exponentially greater. So, if these trucks were to begin using a clean burning non-toxic fuel, toxic emissions into the air would be reduced significantly. As a result, the inclusion of ethanol and biodiesel as main sources of fuel can greatly reduce the risk of harm to the earth and its inhabitants.

Any could argue that fossil fuels are not all that dangerous, however evaluating the statistics proves otherwise. It has been shown that gas, oil, and coal are currently the main sources of energy. However, all three of these are non-renewable and eventually their supplies will dwindle down to almost nothing. Because they are becoming less and less, the demand is becoming greater, therefore increasing the price to obtain them. This, however, is not the biggest concern. The issue at hand is that these substances release greenhouse gases which trap heat from the sun in our atmosphere. The result of this is an increase in earth and ocean temperatures, melting polar ice caps, which in turn increase the level of the ocean. Therefore, it is imperative that we consider alternative fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel, electricity, solar, or hydrogen power; the possibilities for change are endless, so why are we still using fossil fuels?

The promise of alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, and the threat of global warming are allowing businesses to reconsider the forms of energy that they use, and even to implement them into their daily ventures. Now that it has been proven that fossil fuels such as gasoline, petroleum based oil, and coal is harmful not only to the earth, but to the people who live on it, people are starting to take notice that change is needed. Based on the facts and information provided, it is clear that we must stop using these harmful fossil fuels and not only consider, but begin using safer alternatives. If not for ourselves, then for future generations.

7. Conclusion

Summary and Conclusion: Could India meet all energy needs with renewable energy?

India is a nation in transition. Considered an "emerging economy," increasing GDP is driving the demand for additional electrical energy, as well as transportation fuels. India is a nation of extremes. Poverty remains in areas with no energy services, while wealth grows in the new business hubs.

Coal fired generation currently provides two thirds of the generation capacity, and hydropower supplies the other third. Yet, India is blessed with vast resources of renewable energy in solar, wind, biomass and small hydro. In fact, the technical potential of these renewables exceeds the present installed generation capacity.

Unique in the world, India has the only Ministry that is dedicated to the development of renewable energies: Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES). This bodes well for the acceleration of renewable development throughout the nation -- both to meet the underserved needs of millions of rural residents and the growing demand of an energy hungry economy.

The development and deployment of renewable energy, products, and services in India is driven by the need to • decrease dependence on energy imports • sustain accelerated deployment of renewable energy system and devices • expand cost-effective energy supply

• augment energy supply to remote and deficient areas to provide normative consumption levels to all section of the population across the country

• And finally, switch fuels through new and renewable energy system/ device deployment.

In a report on the Indian economy by Deutsche Bank, in which countries were ranked by attractiveness for outsourcing and off-shoring, India came in #1, well ahead of China.

India is currently experiencing strong economic growth, while at the same time attempting to extend modern power services to millions still in poverty. Expanding electrical capacity is essential. Renewable energy remains a small fraction of installed capacity, yet India is blessed with over 150,000MW of exploitable renewables.

It makes sense to the authors that all efforts and investment should consider accelerating these sustainable energy resources before committing to the same fossil fuel path as western nations. The fossil fuel strategy will surely bring price volatility from dwindling supplies and added pollution from carbon combustion.

Tapping India's wind, solar, biomass, and hydro could bring high quality jobs from a domestic resource. Extending the electric grid between all states, and ultimately between neighbour nations will expand international trade and co-operation on the subcontinent.

This report is meant only as an overview in hopes that it will encourage even more rapid and extensive development of the renewable energy resources on the Indian sub-continent.

Ways to ignite domestic market growth

Continuing support to the proposed feed-in tariff for more than the current 10 years, and higher rates, would be good initial actions to take. The feed-in tariff presented does not currently promise a convincing ROI. Due to this, the banks would be hesitant in providing financial help and project financing is nowadays the most crucial issue in getting projects moving.

Another possible solution to develop the Indian PV market is to set up, or stimulate, new solar funds to guarantee project financing. Banks are a bit hesitant nowadays, and solar is not the first thing on their minds. Initial investments are too high in almost all Indian PV applications and projects. On the other hand, the returns are good and secured, and people are willing to pay interest of 10% or even more. So, a win-win scenario seems possible, with market development and good financial returns in return. This is the great thing about the Indian PV market. No investment subsidies are needed, so no government hand-out is required. Just the provision of financing will suffice. This could be either private or from the government (micro and macro financing). The benefits: saving its growing solar industry, bringing down power shortages, and all for an attractive return on investment. And the energy sector holds the key in accelerating economic growth in India. With the targeted GDP growth rate of 8%, energy requirements in India are expected to grow at around 6% per annum over the next few years, which is a four-fold increase over the next 25 years. It seems only a matter of time before the Indian PV market flourishes.

7.1. Limitations

India's decisions on energy supply and power are primarily governed by two drivers-the need to sustain GDP growth between 8 to 10 percent, and ensuring access to electricity for all. Until now, India has been unable to achieve these two objectives. With an ever-increasing demand for electricity, there is quite clearly a need for a fundamental rethinking and restructuring of India's power infrastructure and energy dependencies. However, the current thinking in the government on renewable energy development does not match the ground expectations and related progress on renewable energy technologies.

The domestic renewable energy market faces a number of critical challenges that contribute to its sluggish growth. One of most critical challenges-or barrier-to the development of the renewable energy sector in the country is its dependence on multiple laws, regulations and governing agencies. No single legal framework governs the development of renewable energy in India. In the absence of a unified framework, these multiple sets of legislations and policies create delays and conflicts, and, as a result, undermine investor confidence.
Apart from these, some of the major bottlenecks for renewable energy expansion in India are as follows:

➢ The lack of an aggregate national renewable energy target in India: India does not have an aggregate national renewable energy target.

➢ No compliance for states to meet their renewable energy purchase obligations: Under the Electricity Act of 2003, each state is mandated to have a renewable energy purchase obligation. While many states have set their own renewable purchase obligations, most of them have defaulted on these obligations due to the lack of a binding compliance mechanism.

➢ The lack of streamlined feed-in tariffs across all states for renewable energy in India: Different states in India have different Feed In Tariffs (FITs) for renewable energy, yet these tariffs do not follow the international best practices of digression rates

➢ The lack of adequate evacuation infrastructure and grid interconnections for renewable energy projects: A large number of renewable energy projects in India are in remote locations, since these locations provide the

[pic]

7.2. Recommendations

Protect the Indian PV industry

Shadows are being cast over India’s PV cell and module manufacturers. Companies are currently investing in capacity expansion, while module prices on the global market are plummeting. The major Spanish market will lose more than 2.5 gigawatts of volume in 2009 due to cut backs in its support program. This serious fall in global demand for PV modules and the rapid expansion of the more than 400 module manufacturers worldwide are putting module prices under pressure. Oversupply, coupled with the global financial crisis, is hitting the solar industry very badly. Banks are getting hesitant to finance new projects and developers are waiting for better returns in a climate of decreasing module prices. More than that follows the worsened dollar-euro ratio. The result is that exports to Europe will collapse.

All this poses a serious threat to the export of Indian solar modules. Manufacturers already have many megawatts of high quality modules in stock. At the same time, their current investments in capacity expansion require high levels of cash. In maintaining their cash flow, they will encounter fierce competition with all the Chinese companies also desperate for cash flow. With only a tiny domestic market, around 2.5 MW in 2008, the Indian PV industry is in a dangerous position. It needs the funds for expansion, but lacks sufficient sales to Europe in a market climate of rapidly decreasing prices. As the PV market and industry matures, several market experts and analysts foresee a global consolidation in the PV industry. The Indian PV manufacturers could well become victims of this development.

The only thing that could be of help here would be stronger domestic market. That could put India in a better position than China, where production of solar modules is now 99% dependent on export to Europe and the USA. To achieve this, India needs a strong PV industry lobby and platform. The Indian Semiconductor Association is picking up this role, representing several of the Indian PV manufacturers. Such a strong lobby could inform the government about the current delicate global market situation and what is needed to save its own solar industry. A strong domestic market could prevent Indian manufacturers from collapsing as competition in European markets increases.

At a time when governments around the world are in the process of liberalizing their electricity markets, the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy should lead to higher demand. Without political support, however, renewable energy remains at a disadvantage, marginalized by distortions in the world’s electricity markets created by decades of massive financial, political and structural support to conventional technologies and the failure to internalize environmental and social costs in price of energy.

Developing renewable energy sources will, therefore, require strong political and economic support, especially through laws that guarantee stable tariffs over a period of up to 20 years. At present new renewable energy generators have to compete with old nuclear and fossil fuelled power stations which produce electricity at marginal costs because consumers and taxpayers have already paid the interest and depreciation on the original investments. Political action is needed to overcome these distortions and create a level playing field. In the process, it would also contribute to sustainable economic growth, high quality jobs, technology development, global competitiveness and industrial and research leadership.

Actions on the following grounds could be undertaken:

• Enacting a renewable energy Law with time bound legal targets for Renewable energy uptake, both at the grid, and at stand alone level, in every state as well as nationally.

• The law should provide incentives for investment in RE technologies, such as offering potential tariffs, open transmission, as well as incentives for buying green energy. • A shift from subsidiaries from fossil fuel to renewable energy. • National feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy without a cap.

A national program where in states are encouraged to promote generation of renewable energy.

7.3. Future Scope

Forecasts: the general forecasts for the next decade

Around the world, a growing number of nations have recognized the economic, social, and environmental benefits of renewable energy and are enacting tax incentives and other policy measures favourable to renewable technologies. In Germany, Japan, Spain, and a handful of other countries, clear government commitments to renewable energy and strong, effective policies have overcome barriers and created demand for these technologies, leading to dramatic growth in renewable industries and driving down costs.

(a) The position of India in the world potential renewable energy

Thanks to its location and geography, India enjoys abundant potential to all of the renewable energies.

(b) The electricity consumption and generation forecasts of India as part of the emerging economies.

Growth in net electricity consumption is expected to be most rapid among the emerging economies of the world, including India. According to the EIA, the annual average increase will be about 4.0 per cent from 2002 to 2025.

Emerging economies are projected to more than double their net electricity consumption, from 4,645 billion kilowatt hours in 2002 to 11,554 billion in 2025. The projected growth in net electricity consumption for emerging market economies is driven in large party by gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth assumption.

Because of the links between reliable electricity supply, GDP growth, and living standards, many of the nations with emerging economies are attempting to increase access to reliable electricity supply.

(c) Projected energy consumption of India for 2030

Currently, 45 per cent of households in India do not have access to electricity. New legislation has set a target of electrifying all households by 2010. As in the past, the on-going challenge in providing electricity is the ability of the poor to pay. India announced plans in March, 2005, to continue subsidizing electricity consumption for rural and poor households that use less than 30 kilowatt hours per month.

Estimates of Potential Capacities from Renewable Energy Sources (in GWs)

Source: India Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources

(d) GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS: the current commitment of the government regarding renewable energies?

India is one of the country’s most involved in developing the use of renewable energies and is trying to make the opportunity for investors more attractive than costly.

(I) Financing Sources and Incentives

To promote renewable energy technologies in the country, the government has put in place some subsidies & fiscal incentives. The Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency has been set up under Ministry for Non-Conventional Energy Sources and is a specialized financing agency to promote and finance renewable energy projects. Following is a short list of new measures: • Income tax breaks • Accelerated depreciation • Custom duty/duty free import concessions • Capital/Interest subsidy

• Incentives for preparation of Detailed Project Reports (DPR) and feasibility reports

More details are as follows:

➢ 100 per cent income tax exemption for any continuous block of power for 10 years in the first 15 years of operations providers of finance to such projects are exempt from tax on any income by way of dividends, interest or long-term capital gains from investment made in such projects on or after June 1, 1998 by way of shares or long-term finance accelerated 100-percent depreciation on specified renewable energy-based devices or projects accelerated depreciation of 80 per cent in the first year of operations interest rate subsidies to promote commercialization of new technology lower customs and excise duties for specified equipment. Exemption or reduced rates of central and state taxes.

➢ Ministry for Non-Conventional Energy Sources mix of fiscal and financial benefits: 2/3rd of the project cost subject to a maximum of Rs. 2.00 crore per 100 KW for procurement of modules, structures, power conditioning units, cabling etc. to the implementing agency. The balance cost on land, extension of grid lines, transformers, civil works, foundation and erection and commissioning, etc. is met by the implementing agency.

➢ Up to Rs.1.0 lakh for the preparation of Detailed Project Report (DPR) for the grid interactive SPV power projects.

2.5 per cent of its share of project cost, subject to a maximum of Rs.5 lakhs for performance evaluation, monitoring, report writing, etc. to the State Nodal Agency.

Interest subsidy of up to 4 per cent to Financial Institutions including IREDA, Nationalized Banks etc. for captive power projects of maximum capacity 200 KW by industry.

II) Environmental Legislation

2001 Energy Conservation Act : Focus on energy efficiency Standards and labelling . Designated consumers requirements Energy conservation building codes Energy conservation fund Bureau of Energy Efficiency

2003 Electricity Act: Combined several existing pieces of legislation intended to accelerate growth of power sector. Targets additional 10 per cent from renewable by 2012 (1000 MW/year capacity) Competitive market-based

Features include: O National Electricity Policy O De-licensing of generation and captive generation O Public ownership of transmission companies O Open access in transmission O Freedom for distribution licenses O Establishment of State Electricity Regulatory Commissions

O License-free generation and distribution in rural areas

Provisions and activities impacting the power sector:

Elimination of ceiling on foreign equity participation. Stream-lining the procedure for clearance of power projects. Establishment of the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission. Formulating an action plan to set up the National Grid

State reforms impacting the power sector:

Unbundling the State Electricity Boards (SEB) into separate generation, transmission and distribution companies privatizing the generation, transmission and distribution companies setting up independent state electricity regulatory commissions making subsidy payments for subsidized categories of customers by state governments making tariff reforms by state governments enabling legislation and operational support extended to the SEB/utility improving operations of SEBs, particularly with regard to better management practices, reduction of transmission and distribution losses, better metering and reduction of power theft.

8. Annexure

Table 1

|Installed generation capacity (in MW) |
|Year |Hydro |Thermal |Nuclear |
|2005 |32326 |82411 |3360 |
|2006 |34654 |88601 |3900 |
|2007 |35909 |93775 |3900 |
|2008 |36878 |103032 |4120 |
|2009 |36863 |106968 |4120 |
|2010 |37567 |117975 |4560 |

(Source: Energy Statistics 2012)

[pic]

Chart 1

(Source: Generated from above data)

|Gross generation of power over the years (in Million kWhr) |
|Year |Hydro |Thermal |Nuclear |
|1998 |68901 |317918 |9071 |
|1999 |74582 |337083 |10083 |
|2000 |82923 |353699 |11923 |
|2002 |80755 |387051 |13249 |
|2003 |74362 |409940 |16902 |
|2004 |73125 |421032 |18909 |
|2002 |64014 |449289 |19390 |
|2006 |75242 |472079 |17780 |
|2007 |84610 |488328 |17011 |
|2008 |101494 |498358 |17324 |
|2009 |113502 |528490 |18802 |

Table 2:

Source: India Stats

Chart 2:

[pic]

Generated from the above data

Table 3: ((Source: India Stats))

|Coal Reserves |
|years |life(yrs) |
|1990 |899 |
|1991 |842 |
|1992 |801 |
|1993 |792 |
|1994 |776 |
|1995 |739 |
|1996 |707 |
|1997 |687 |
|1998 |704 |
|1999 |696 |
|2000 |682 |
|2001 |714 |
|2002 |705 |
|2003 |680 |
|2004 |648 |
|2005 |622 |
|2006 |597 |
|2007 |578 |
|2008 |542 |
|2009 |520 |

Chart 3

[pic] Source: Generated from above data

Table 4 - Renewable sources of energy other than hydro/water

|Year |Capacity Installed each year (MW) |
|2005-06 |430.9 |
|2006-07 |849.3 |
|2007-08 |1366.2 |
|2008-09 |2011.3 |
|2009-10 |3102.6 |
|Total |7760.3 |

(Sources: MNRE)

Chart 4

[pic]

(Source: Generated from above data)

Table 5

|Year |Coal Reserves(Fixed ) |Renewable Resources Installed each Year |
| | |(Variable) |
|2005-2006 |622 |430.9 |
|2006-2007 |597 |849.3 |
|2007-2008 |578 |1366.2 |
|2008-2009 |542 |2011.3 |
|2009-2010 |520 |3102.6 |

5.1 Linear Regression

|Variables Entered/Removedb |
|Model |Variables Entered |Variables Removed |Method |
|1 |VAR00002a |. |Enter |
|a. All requested variables entered. |
|b. Dependent Variable: VAR00001 |
|Model Summary |
|Model |
| |
| |
|ANOVAb |
|Model |
|b. Dependent Variable: VAR00001 |
|Coefficientsa |
|Model |Unstandardized Coefficients |Standardized |t |Sig. |
| | |Coefficients | | |
| |

5.2 Correlation:

|Correlations |
| | |VAR00001 |VAR00002 |
|VAR00001 |Pearson Correlation |1 |-.980** |
| |Sig. (2-tailed) | |.003 |
| |N |5 |5 |
|VAR00002 |Pearson Correlation |-.980** |1 |
| |Sig. (2-tailed) |.003 | |
| |N |5 |5 |
| | | | |
|**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). |

|Year |Capacity installation each year (in MW) |
|2002 |430.9 |
|2003 |849.3 |
|2004 |1366.2 |
|2005 |2011.3 |
|2006 |3102.6 |
|2010 |6106 |
|2015 |9359 |
|2020 |12612 |
|2025 |15865 |

Table 6

Chart 6

[pic]

(Source: Based on Calculation)

|Total installed capacity as on September 30.9.09 |
|Fuel |MW |% |
|Total Thermal |98044.48 |64.6 |
|Coal |80395.88 |53.3 |
|Gas |16448.85 |10.5 |
|Oil |1199.75 |0.9 |
|Hydro (Renewable) |36885.4 |24.7 |
|Nuclear |4120 |2.9 |
|RES** (MNRE) |13310.21 |7.7 |
|Total |152360.09 | |

Table 7

Renewable Energy Sources (RES) include SHP, BG, BP, U&I and Wind Energy.

* SHP= Small Hydro Project * BG= Biomas Gasfier * BP= Biomass Power * U & I=Urban & Industrial Water Power * RES=Renewable Sources.

Chart 7

[pic]

Table 7.1. – Forecasted contribution to power from various energy sources

|Year 2025 |Installed capacity(MW) |% |
|Thermal |128120 |49 |
|Hydro |71743 |27 |
|Nuclear |9694 |4 |
|RES |51702.3 |20 |
|Total |261259.3 |100 |

Chart 7.1.

[pic]

(Source: Generated form above data)

Reference

Websites:

1. (IEA) International Energy Agency report of 2002 2. www.geos.iitb.ac.in 3. wikipedia.org – Non-conventional energy 4. powerindiatechnologies.com/demandforpowerinindia.html 5. clean-energy-ideas.com/articles/wind_energy_india.html 6. R. Jaylin's article – Why we need an alternative energy source (www.helium.com) 7. ENERGY OUTLOOK 2007: FACT SHEET – INDIA 8. CMIE Journal, Energy, Issue November 2008 9. mnes.nic.in 10. www.nhpcindia.com 11. www.jhpl.com 12. www.iloveindia.com/economy-of-india/top-50.../suzlon.html 13. www.suzlon.com 14. www.iea.org 15. www.cea.nic.in 16. www.ntpc.co.in 17. www.gujaratnre.com/domesind.html 18. www.tneb.in 19. planningcommission.gov.in/ 20. http://www.commodityonline.com/news/india 21. http://altenergymag.com/emagazine/2011/02/renewable-energy-in-india-scope-for-foreign-investment/1654 22. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Interviews/shellarticleshow/12378831.cms 23. http://www.brightgreentalent.com/green-jobs/renewable-energy-jobs/ 24. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INDIAEXTN/Resources/Reports-Publications/Unleashing_potential_of_Renewable_Energy_in_India.pdf 25. India Ministry of N 26. on-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES) 27. http://mnes.nic.in/ 28. Trade Team Canada Environment (TTC Environment) 29. http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/inenva.nsf/en/h_eg02268e.html 30. Maps of India http://www.mapsofindia.com 31. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 32. http://mospi.nic.in/mospi_energy_stat.htm 33. Global Energy Network Institute (GENI); www.geni.org 34. Canada India Business http://canadaindiabusiness.ca/gol/cib/cib.nsf/en/ci00109.html

35. Zenith-Energy http://www.zenithenergy.com/index.HTM 36. Greenpeace.org 37. Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) 38. http://www.greenbusinesscentre.com/renenegy.asp 39. Centre for Wind Energy Technology www.cwet.tn.nic.in 40. Renewable Energy that benefits all: http://www.energyrecipes.org/reports/countryreports.php?action=casestudy 41. Solarplaza.com ; http://planningcommission.gov.in/plans/ ... 3_ch10.pdf

Books:

1. Statistical Methods, by N.G.Das. Combined Edition (Volumes 1 & 2) 2. Research Methodology, by C.R.Kothari. Second Revised Edition