International tourist arrivals are forecast to reach 1.8 billion by 2030 according to the newly released UNWTO long-term forecast, Tourism Towards 2030.
International tourism will continue to grow in the period 2010-2030, but at a more moderate pace than the past decades, with the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide increasing by an average 3.3% a year.
A large proportion of the arrivals of the next two decades will originate from the countries of Asia and the Pacific, growing at a rate of 5.0% a year and generating an average 17 million additional international arrivals every year. Europe follows with an average 16 million extra arrivals a year, resulting from a much more moderate growth rate (+2.5% a year), but on top of a much larger base. The remaining 10 million additional yearly arrivals are generated by the Americas (5 millions), Africa (3 millions) and the Middle East (2 millions).
International arrivals in emerging economy destinations are expected to continue growing at double the pace (+4.4% year) of advanced ones (+2.2% a year). In absolute terms, the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa will gain an average 30 million arrivals a year, compared to 14 million in the traditional destinations of the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia and the Pacific.
By 2015, emerging economies will receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies, and by 2030 their share is expected to reach 58%.
There will be increases in the global market shares of Asia and the Pacific (to 30% in 2030, up from 22% in 2010), the Middle East (to 8% from 6%) and Africa (to 7% from 5%), and further declines in the shares of Europe (to 41% from 51%) and the Americas (to 14% from 16%), mostly due to the slower growth of North America.
By 2030,