...Unit Outline Sequencing Activities and Dependencies Sequencing Activities 1. What is the purpose of sequencing activities? 2. What types of activities exist in a project? o Predecessor and successor activities o Concurrent activities o Dummy activities o Lag activities o Milestones 3. How do I begin sequencing my project activities? Identifying Dependencies 1. How do dependencies affect activity sequencing? o Mandatory dependencies o Discretionary dependencies o External dependencies 2. What other sequencing dependencies should I understand? o Finish-to-start dependency o Finish-to-finish dependency o Start-to-start dependency o Start-to-finish dependency 3. How do leads affect activity sequencing? 4. How do lags affect activity sequencing? Managing Risk and Resources 1. How do dependencies affect risk? 2. What is slack, and how does it affect risk management? 3. How can I manage resources when sequencing dependencies? Unit Content Sequencing Activities and Dependencies Sequencing Activities What...
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...Exam Question: Discuss the disruption of biological rhythms (8+ 16 Marks) Biological rhythms are controlled by endogenous pacemakers (Oscillators). endogenous pacemakers can easily be changed by exogenous Zeitgebers such daylight. However if the oscillators are more resistant this can lead to desynchronisation. The most common type of disruption to biological rhythms are shift work and Jet lag. Shift work described a type of job in which individuals have to be alert at night when they work, and they sleep during the day. This results in reduced quality of sleep because it goes against our natural biological rhythms as daytime sleep can be interrupted due to exogenous zeitgebers such as light and outside noise. One of the effects of shift lag has been found to be decreased alertness. Shift workers often experience a circadian trough where there alert levels plummet. This usually occurs between 12.00am and 4.00am and is due to reduced body temperature and a decrease in cortisol levels. This predicted effect of shift work has been supported by research by Moor Ede. It has been found that the decreased alertness as a result of shift lag costs the USA $70 billion per year. More evidence comes from the 3 Mile Island nuclear power station disaster, which occurred at around 4am, and similarly the Exon Val Dez oil tanker accident occurred at 12am and resulted in the spillage of oil in the oceans affecting thousands of wildlife. A second effect of shift work is believed to be the increased...
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...prepared. The main effect on travellers who are travelling between two different time zones is being jet lagged. Jet lag is a feeling of tiredness after a long aircraft journey; it’s the result of your body trying to adjust to the new time zone. The main symptom of jet lag is disturbed sleep. The more time zones which you cross during a long-haul flight the more your jet lag can become severe. LEISURE TRAVELERS. Jet lag affects leisure travellers because it may take them a few days to get used to the time and this may cut into their holiday time. The lack of sleep they are getting may cause them to become irritable during their holiday, which may affect their holiday enjoyment. Leisure travelers go on holidays for fun, so be jet lagged may be a in convince for them, they may need a couple of days to get used to everything. They may sleep all day and then wake up at night and feel like their day has been wasted. For example visitors who are leaving the UK to go to New York will suffer from severe jet lag because New York and London have a 7 hour differences and the customer will not be used to be travelling for long. BUSINESS TRAVELLERS Jet lag can affect business travellers more than any type of customers, because the implications are much more serious. Business travellers who are travelling long distances and start work immediately after their flight, jet lag can affect their mood, ability to concentrate; also being jet lagged can affect their physical and mental performance...
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...Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering Technology Centre for the Built Environment PROJECT MANAGEMENT- ENVIRONMENT GRADUATE CERTIFICATE 1 Today’s Agenda • • • • • Review and case assignments for Tutorial 1 due today Textbook status Cover material for Tutorial 2 Begin to work on review and case assignments for Tutorial 2 Next week: complete review and case assignments for Tutorial 2 • Tutorial 2 assignments are due next Monday, January 28 2 Tutorial 2: Creating a Project Schedule Microsoft Project 2010 ® In Tutorial Section 2.1 you will: • • • • • • Start a new project Examine scheduling defaults Change a project and task calendar Enter and edit tasks and durations Enter and edit recurring tasks and milestones Enter lag and lead times New Perspectives on Microsoft Project 2010 4 In Tutorial Section 2.2 you will: • • • • • • Enter and edit task dependencies View project statistics Show the project summary Review project statistics Create and manipulate summary tasks Develop a work breakdown structure New Perspectives on Microsoft Project 2010 5 Scheduling • By default, the new project file is scheduled from a project Start date • All tasks are scheduled to begin as soon as possible • Project 2010 calculates the project’s Finish date based on the: – Tasks – Durations – Dependencies New Perspectives on Microsoft Project 2010 6 Project Information Dialog Box New Perspectives on Microsoft Project 2010 7 Scheduling a Project...
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...effect of changing N0 in both models? (2 marks) When in discrete mode, a change in lambda (λ) will change the growth rate of the species. If λ increases, so does the growth rate and if λ decreases, as will the growth rate. However, the growth rate only increases if the number is above 1. 1 itself indicates no growth and below one is negative growth. The same principle applies to r. However, as apposed to 1, 0 is no growth while below 0 and above 0 is negative and positive growth, respectfully. Figure 1 and 2 show a stable, increasing and decreasing population for both continuous and discrete growth. Question 2. What are the differences between the discrete and continuous models of population growth? (2 marks) Discrete growth shows a type of growth in populations that have seasonal breeding seasons (Alstad, 2001). This means the percentage increase can be added after the season to the group. Continuous growth means that the growth of the population is continuously growing without seasons and has overlapping generations. An example of discrete growth is figure 1 and continuous growth in figure 2. Figure 1 Note that the dots are the changes in population after the previous, this graph could also show horizontal lines from one dot to the point in t matches with the above dot. The vertical line from the horizontal dot and dot further along t show the change in population (Otherwise known as a step graph). This graph shows smoothed lines. Figure 2 Showing a continuous change...
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...Spatial analysis on regional economic growth of China 1. Introduction Economic growth is always an important topic in the economics research. Many study in the past just considered region as an isolated “island”, and the mutual relations among different regions were usually ignored. However, regional economy is an open system. Factors such as trade, factor mobility (labor or capital), and technology or knowledge spillover will all make relations among regions become complicated. Under such circumstance, regional economy is no longer isolated but strongly related. The development of regional economy not only relies on its own endowment, also highly depends on the development of other regions This paper is going to bring relative spatial autocorrelation analysis and econometrics methods in the analysis of regional economic growth in China. It attempts to test the spatial dependence of economic growth among different provinces in China and its tendency. The inner mechanism of regional economic growth will also be discussed. In the second section, I will briefly introduce the literature review about regional economic study in China. In the third section, using a sample of per capita GDP data over 1978-2008 in 31 provinces in mainland China, I compute a global spatial autocorrelation, and use the local spatial autocorrelation to get general idea where this global spatial autocorrelation come from. In the fourth part, the spatial factors which influence regional economic...
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...other is a Turbocharger. The conflict with this between people is deciding which one is better. Both superchargers and turbochargers have their advantages and disadvantages, some of which are similar. Choosing the right kind of forced induction will depend on your vehicle’s motor, and your power expectations. The first type of forced induction system is a supercharger. There are different types of superchargers. The first type is a root supercharger which is the oldest by far. Root type superchargers push extra oxygen into an engine by using meshed-lobe rotors. The rotors rotate in opposite direction trapping the air into pockets and forcing it from the inlet to the compressor chamber where it is compressed and moved into the engine. Root type chargers are simple and have few parts which results in reliability and require very few repairs. They are also good for adding power to an engine at low rpm’s. The second type of supercharger is the Screw. The screw type supercharger works very similarly to root type chargers. Screw superchargers are very good at moving air and lose very little of it. They can compress air as they move using their screws. The last type of supercharger is a Centrifugal supercharger. They are very similar to many pumps or fans. They pull air through an intake or compressor housing using an impeller which collects the air and forces it out into a progressively smaller Hodges 2 area, compressing it and leading it to the engine. Centrifugal chargers are...
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...GARCH Model Fitting For IBM Introduction: Nowadays, many econometric studies have documented that financial return time series tend to be highly heteroskedastic, with varying variability or volatility and thick-tailed marginal distribution. Volatility is the conditional variance, which is unobservable and tends to be clustered together. Clustering is referred to as the phenomenon that large price changes of either signs tend to be followed by large changes, and similarly small changes follow small changes. Sudden bursts of volatility in financial returns exhibit strong dependence on the return time series, and a period of tranquility alternates with a period of volatility bursts. A popular ARCH, which is called Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, modeling was introduced to capture the predictability of volatility ad the volatility clustering as well as the thick-tailed marginal distribution of the return time series. The tremendous success of GARCH modeling in empirical work makes may econometricians to treat it as the benchmark model for financial time series. Data Description: In this GARCH model fitting report, I use the history of stock price of IBM from January 2nd, 2013, to December 31th, 2013, collecting the data of “High”, “Low”, “Close”, and so on. At the beginning, I run the ACF for the log return and squared log return of IBM to get the autocorrelation for them. Then, by assuming that the model is normal distribution, we use the R to fit a GARCH model...
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...process in the United States? A) the redistribution of income B) the reallocation of resources C) the long-run planning of scarce resources D) the short-run stabilization of prices E) All of the above Answer: C Diff: 2 2) Which of the following is the best example of a product or service that provides a benefit externality? A) the construction of a private road that allows vehicles if a toll is paid B) a public library C) a bookstore that is open to everyone D) All of the above E) None of the above Answer: B Diff: 2 3) Which of the following is not an example of a cost externality? A) the dumping of industrial waste into a lake B) unsightly billboards C) a neighbor that blasts his stereo system D) the building of a new type of jet fighter bomber E) All of the above Answer: D Diff: 2 4) The demand for products that provide benefit externalities is generally ________ the demand for products that do not. A) greater than B) less than C) the same as D) greater or less (depending on the market) than Answer: B Diff: 2 5) An example of a cost externality occurs when a mining company A) dumps waste in river upstream from a popular fishing spot. B) produces coal that is not in demand in a recession. C) underpays its employees. D) overwork its employees. Answer: A Diff: 2 6) An example of an activity that is likely to generate benefit (positive) externality is A) a well manicured lawn of your neighbor. B) growing wild flowers on city street...
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...The time-lag argument is an argument in the philosophy of perception whose conclusion is that we never (directly) perceive physical things of any sort expect our own inner experiences in our brains. The author of the time lag argument assumes that by simply appealing to facts from the uncontestable laws of physics, one will realize that the common belief about objects of vision are mistaken. However, in this paper, I will show that the author has failed to realize that the key to the argument is the notion that we perceive things happen when they happen, and not later; and we perceive things in the states in which they are, at the time when we perceive them. I argue that the argument pivots on the ordinary use of the word “perceive”. There...
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...#importing data into R x<-read.csv("C:/Users/chrisson/Desktop/data.csv",header=T) prices=x$COFFEE_ARABICA #Calculating the log returns log.prices<-log(prices) log.ret<-diff(log.prices) #Converting the log prices into time series series<- ts(log.prices, start=c(1960,1), freq=12) par(mfrow=c(2,1)); plot(series,main="Arabica coffee price movement") plot(log.ret,type="l",main="Price returns") # normality test library(tseries) jarque.bera.test(log.ret) # stationarity test adf.test(log.ret) # Testing for the presence of ARCH effects Box.test(log.ret,lag=10,type="Ljung") # testing for ARCH effects up to lag 4 ArchTest(log.ret, lags=4) #plotting the ACF and PACF plots par(mfrow=c(2,1)) acf(log.ret);pacf(log.ret) #determination of the models library(rugarch) ret.model<-log.ret[1:635] spec1= ugarchspec(variance.model = list(model = 'eGARCH',garchOrder = c(1,1)), distribution = 'ged') egarch.fit <- ugarchfit(data=c(log.ret), spec = spec1) #fitting EGARCH model egarch.fit coef(egarch.fit) spec <- ugarchspec( variance.model = list(model = "fGARCH", submodel = "GARCH", garchOrder = c(1,2))) garch.fit <- ugarchfit(data=log.ret, spec = spec) #fitting GARCH model garch.fit coef(garch.fit) #forecasting with GARCH and EGARCH e.fit = ugarchfit(data = ret.model, spec = spec1, out.sample = 10) #10 step ahead forecast for EGARCH e.forc= ugarchforecast(e.fit, n.ahead=10,n.roll=10) e.forc g.fit = ugarchfit(data = ret.model...
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...* Operating and transaction exposures can be partially managed by adopting operating or financing policies that offset anticipated currency exposures * Six of the most commonly employed proactive policies are * Matching currency cash flows * Risk-sharing agreements * Back-to-back or parallel loans * Currency swaps * Leads and lags * Re-invoicing centers * Matching Currency Cash Flows * One way to offset an anticipated continuous long exposure to a particular currency is to acquire debt denominated in that currency * This policy results in a continuous receipt of payment and a continuous outflow in the same currency * This can sometimes occur through the conduct of regular operations and is referred to as a natural hedge Matching: Debt Financing as a Financial Hedge Currency Clauses: Risk-sharing * Risk-sharing is a contractual arrangement in which the buyer and seller agree to “share” or split currency movement impacts on payments * Example: Ford purchases from Mazda in Japanese yen at the current spot rate as long as the spot rate is between ¥115/$ and ¥125/$. * If the spot rate falls outside of this range, Ford and Mazda will share the difference equally * If on the date of invoice, the spot rate is ¥110/$, then Mazda would agree to accept a total payment which would result from the difference of ¥115/$- ¥110/$ (i.e. ¥5) * Ford’s payment to Mazda would therefore be * Note that this movement...
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...Types of association and cooperation forms according to the Romanian laws The forms of association an cooperation between public administration entities and other public or private actors are very limited: * The development intra-community associations (DIA) – Law 215/2001 The cooperation structures with juridical personality created by the territorial administrative units to cooperate on development projects of local and regional interest or to deliver public services. * This structure is very restrictive in terms of the possible members of the association – only representatives of the local administration. Thus, the cooperation can only be initiated by the local or county councils, and the leadership of these associations is entirely formed by the representatives of the local and county councils * Basic financing – fixed sums from the local budgets of the members. * They only function as associative entities to implement infrastructure or public service projects financed from EU funds. * Does not function properly due to the decision-making process based on unanimity. * The Local Action Groups (LAG) – defined in the Rural National Development Plan Entities that represent public-private partnerships, composed of representatives of the public, private and civil sectors from a homogenous rural area, that will implement an integrated strategy for the development of the territory. DIA – implementation of zonal or regional related projects...
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...Campbell, Lo and MacKinlay (1997), Mills (1999), Gourieroux and Jasiak (2001), Tsay (2001), Alexander (2001) and Chan (2002). 58 3. Time Series Concepts 3.2 Univariate Time Series 3.2.1 Stationary and Ergodic Time Series Let {yt } = {. . . yt−1 , yt , yt+1 , . . .} denote a sequence of random variables indexed by some time subscript t. Call such a sequence of random variables a time series. The time series {yt } is covariance stationary if E[yt ] = µ for all t cov(yt , yt−j ) = E[(yt − µ)(yt−j − µ)] = γ j for all t and any j For brevity, call a covariance stationary time series simply a stationary time series. Stationary time series have time invariant first and second moments. The parameter γ j is called the j th order or lag j...
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...Objectives - MS Project 2010 * Creating a summary task * Working with subtasks * Establishing task dependencies * Specify lead and lag times A project task list can be as few as 10 or as many as several hundred tasks. With a large project, it can become difficult to locate a specific task. Using MS Project, you can organize the task list by creating a hierarchical structure. This process of structuring a task list is known as outlining. Outlining is used to organize common tasks into groups within the task list. The groups can represent phases of the project. In this lab, we will first use outlining to group the tasks of our project into phases. We will create a main summary task to represent the entire project and then several levels of summary tasks below the main summary task to represent the phases of the project. Creating an Outline 1. Log onto Windows. Open MS Project. 2. Open your project file that you created in Lesson 1, Part A (MyLab1a_XXX.mpp, where XXX are your initials.) 3. Save this file, using Save As, as MyLab1b_XXX.mpp, where XXX are your initials. Creating a hierarchical outline organizes the project tasks list into groups of tasks. Each group of tasks is preceded by a summary task, which describes the tasks within each group. The outline of a project generally begins with a main summary task. The main summary task is a brief description of the project and all tasks are subordinate to the main summary...
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