...Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: Basics Aswath Damodaran Aswath Damodaran 1 Discounted Cashflow Valuation: Basis for Approach t = n CF t Value = ∑ t t = 1( 1 +r) where CFt is the cash flow in period t, r is the discount rate appropriate given the riskiness of the cash flow and t is the life of the asset. Proposition 1: For an asset to have value, the expected cash flows have to be positive some time over the life of the asset. Proposition 2: Assets that generate cash flows early in their life will be worth more than assets that generate cash flows later; the latter may however have greater growth and higher cash flows to compensate. Aswath Damodaran 2 Equity Valuation versus Firm Valuation n n Value just the equity stake in the business Value the entire business, which includes, besides equity, the other claimholders in the firm Aswath Damodaran 3 I.Equity Valuation n The value of equity is obtained by discounting expected cashflows to equity, i.e., the residual cashflows after meeting all expenses, tax obligations and interest and principal payments, at the cost of equity, i.e., the rate of return required by equity investors in the firm. t=n Value of Equity = CF to Equity t ∑ (1+ k )t t=1 e where, CF to Equityt = Expected Cashflow to Equity in period t ke = Cost of Equity n The dividend discount model is a specialized case of equity valuation, and the value of a stock is the present value of expected future dividends...
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...Group Assignment: NABR Publishing Ltd. Valuation Case Submitted by: XXX MBA 680-Corporate Financial Theory October 22, 2014 Valuation Methodology The valuation of NABR Publishing Ltd encompassed an extensive amount of exercise, and the valuation required taking into consideration various factors. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method was used to value the NABR Firm. The DCF Method utilizes the net present value of future free cash flow projections and discounts the cash flow at a discount rate which was calculated using two of three options. In turn, this was done using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). The motive for using WACC to get the discount rate is to attain excellent results. WACC’s utilization is viewed as a more ideal structure when the values attained reflects more than the Current Cost of Investment. The sum total of all the discounted cash flows are referred to as the Value of the firm. Mr. Hawks requested that a valuation be done; hence, the group focused on the DCF model contemplating three assumptions: no debt, debt and equity, and using the Venture Capitalist method which utilizes the P/E ratio. He will notice the firm value that his company is reflecting as a much lower equity value when no debt is associated with the firm. Yet, when adding the debt to the valuation, it reflected a much higher equity value. The reason for this is because upon assuming debt it is greater than...
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...Equity Valuation and Negative Earnings: The Role of Book Value of Equity ABSTRACT: This study provides an explanation for the anomalous significantly negative price-earnings relation using the simple earnings capitalization model for firms that report losses. We hypothesize and find that including book value of equity in the valuation specification eliminates the negative relation. This suggests that the simple earnings capitalization model is misspecified and the negative coefficient on earnings for loss firms is a manifestation of that misspecification. Furthermore, we provide evidence on three competing explanations for the role that book value of equity plays in valuing loss firms. Specifically, we investigate whether the importance of book value in cross-sectional valuation models stems from its role as (1) a control for scale differences (Barth and Kallapur 1996), (2) a proxy for expected future normal earnings (Ohlson 1995; Penman 1992), or (3) a proxy for loss firms’ abandonment option (Berger et al. 1996; Barth et al. 1996; Burgstahler and Dichev 1997). Our results do not support the conjecture that the importance of book value in cross-sectional valuation stems primarily from its role as a control for scale differences. Rather, the results are consistent with book value serving as a value-relevant proxy for expected future normal earnings for loss firms in general, and as a proxy for abandonment option for loss firms most likely to cease operations and...
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...PLEKHANOV RUSSIAN UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SCHOOL COURSE WORK « Business Valuation on the basis of Damodaran model » Corporate Finance Student: Pavel Terefera Supervisor: Irina Sokolnikova Moscow 2015 Contents Introduction _____________________________________________ 3 Chapter 1. Valuation______________________________________ 4 1.1 Valuation in portfolio management_________________________ 7 1.2 Valuation in acquisition__________________________________ 10 1.3 Valuation in corporate finance_____________________________ 10 Chapter 2. Approaches to Valuation___________________________ 11 2.1 Profitable Approach_____________________________________ 12 2.1.2 Income capitalization approach __________________________ 12 2.1.3Method of discounted cash flows__________________________ 14 2.1.4 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation on example of JSC NLMK____ 20 2.2 Relative Valuation Approach______________________________ 23 Conclusion _______________________________________________ 28 Bibliography ______________________________________________ 29 Introduction. Knowing the value of an asset may not be a guarantee for success for investor, but it does help us make more informed judgments. A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does not pay more for an asset than its worth. In conditions of market economy when all transactions are made "on fear and risk" their participants, both seller...
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...Financial Statement Analysis Session #1: Fundamental Analysis and Valuation March 2015 In-Mu Haw (许 仁茂) 1 Create value through acquisition to build brands (over 100) 2 Lenovo vs. HP Stock Price Lenovo created value through acquisitions Poor acquisition (overpaid: $8.8B) $18 million in 2013 3 Deloitte Report Chet Wood, Managing Partner of Deloitte LLP, Merger & Acquisition Services: • • About 70 percent of all health plan M&As fail to create meaningful shareholder value. CFOs and management can take a stronger role in M&A deal evaluation, especially on revenue growth. 4 Use of Financial Statements for Valuation “I am considering to buy a small packing company. They offered me RMB 15 million and gave me their last 2 years’ Income Statements and Balance Sheets. I think it’s overpriced. How much do you think I should pay?” How will you use I/S and B/S to assess the target firm’s fair value? 5 Warren Buffet Emphasized importance of looking at a firm’s Competitive advantage of products Long-term growth potential… for good investment 6 Sound Fundamental Analysis One does not buy a stock, one buys a business. When buying a business, know the business. Good firms can be bad buys (if overpriced). Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Value of firm = Value of Debt + Value of Equity TA = L + SE (BV) on B/S 7 TA – L = SE SE (BV) vs. Market value of equity 8 Stock Price What is intrinsic value? Is the price overvalued? P/E=41: What earnings growth...
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...debt and equity affect the value of a business? Assets Existing Investments Generate cashflows today Includes long lived (fixed) and short-lived(working capital) assets Expected Value that will be created by future investments Assets in Place Debt Liabilities Fixed Claim on cash flows Little or No role in management Fixed Maturity Tax Deductible Growth Assets Equity Residual Claim on cash flows Significant Role in management Perpetual Lives Different Value? Different Financing Mix? Aswath Damodaran 2 Approaches to Valuation Discounted cashflow valuation, relates the value of an asset to the present value of expected future cashflows on that asset. Relative valuation, estimates the value of an asset by looking at the pricing of 'comparable' assets relative to a common variable like earnings, cashflows, book value or sales. Contingent claim valuation, uses option pricing models to measure the value of assets that share option characteristics. Aswath Damodaran 3 Valuation Models Asset Based Valuation Discounted Cashflow Models Relative Valuation Contingent Claim Models Liquidation Value Stable Replacement Cost Two-stage Three-stage or n-stage Current Equity Firm Sector Option to delay Option to expand Young firms Option to liquidate Equity in troubled firm Market Normalized Earnings Book Revenues Value Sector specific Undeveloped land Equity Valuation Models Dividends Firm Valuation...
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...The Little Book of Valuation Aswath Damodaran Stern School of Business 44 West Fourth Street, 9-‐96 New York, NY 10012 Email: adamodar@stern.nyu.edu Phone: 212-‐998-‐0340 First draft: October 14, 2010 Preface Knowing the value of an asset may not be a prerequisite for investing or a guarantee for success, but it does help us make more informed judgments. For most investors, though, valuing an asset seems to be a task that is far too complex and complicated for their skill sets. Consequently, they either depend upon those that they regard as professionals (equity research analysts, appraisers) for their valuations or ignore value entirely when investing. In this book, I hope to show that valuation, at its core, is simple and that anyone who is willing to spend some time collecting information and analyzing it, can ...
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...that going public might have for Rosetta Stone. Following this qualitative analysis, we then estimated the price at which Rosetta Stone’s shares should be offered in the 2009 IPO. In order to do so, we first determined the current market price for shares of the firm by employing a market multiples as well as discounted cash flow valuation. On the basis of these values, we estimated the IPO price and then gave a final recommendation regarding the price in which we also considered factors beyond the pure numbers, such as the difficult market environment. 1. Advantages of going public First of all, the IPO would help Rosetta Stone raise equity, giving the company the opportunity for further investment with the aim of establishing its brand globally and expanding its geographic outreach. As a publicly traded company, Rosetta Stone will receive more exposure to both national and the international capital markets, creating the opportunity to reach more investors. For example, the planned stock market listing would allow institutional customers, who currently represent 20% of Rosetta Stone’s customer base, to buy shares. Another important advantage of going public is to provide liquidity for the firm’s shares, since equity investors consider liquidity highly valuable. From an investor’s point of view, non-traded companies have an additional layer of risk because one might not be able to divest immediately at a given point in time. Going public, Rosetta Stone would be able to mitigate...
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...Sampa Video, Inc. • A small video chain is deciding whether to engage in a new line of delivery business and is conducting an economic analysis of the valuation impacts of this decision. • This is a case basically regarding how to measure the benefits of financial leverage via different valuation approaches. Firm valuation (discount cash flow) and cost of capital • When you use the after-tax cost of capital to be the discount rate, you basically take in the effect of the financing. • If you discount the project cash flows (without financing) by the after-tax cost of capital, you will get the exact net present value as you use it to discount the total cash flows (project cash flows plus the financing cash flows). • That is, when you use the after-tax cost of capital to discount financing related cash flows, the net present value would be zero. ） （t=0） Initial invest. (total cost) Inc. rev. Inc. cost Deprec. OP CF NOP CF Project CF Financing Interest (AT) Repay. Fin. Rel. CF Total CF 8,000,000 0 (8,000,000) 8,000,000 (8,000,000) ） （t=1） ） （t=2） ） （t=3） ） （t=4） 6,000,000 (2,000,000) 2,000,000 3,500,000 6,000,000 (2,000,000) 2,000,000 3,500,000 6,000,000 (2,000,000) 2,000,000 3,500,000 6,000,000 (2,000,000) 2,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 3,500,000 3,500,000 6,500,000 (360,000) (360,000) (360,000) (360,000) (8,000,000) (360,000) 3,140,000 (360,000) 3,140,000 (360,000) 3,140,000 (8,360,000) (1,860,000) ...
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...Stocks MULTIPLE CHOICE 1. The first public sale of company stock to outside investors is called a/an a.|seasoned equity offering.| b.|shareholders’ meeting.| c.|initial public offering.| d.|proxy fight.| ANS: C DIF: E REF: 5.2 Primary Markets and Issuing New Securities 2. Which statement about common shareholders is incorrect? a.|Shareholders only have a residual claim.| b.|Shareholders have precedence over all other claimholders in the case of bankruptcy.| c.|Shareholders have a voting right.| d.|Shareholders are the ultimate owners of a corporation.| ANS: B DIF: E REF: 5.1 The Essential Features of Preferred and Common Stock 3. What is the market capitalization of a company? a.|The market value of all outstanding debt.| b.|The book value of the company’s debt.| c.|The market value of all outstanding shares.| d.|The book value of the company’s total equity.| ANS: C DIF: E REF: 5.1 The Essential Features of Preferred and Common Stock 4. Which of the following is not a difficulty associated with valuing common stock? a.|Common stock does not have a specific expiration date.| b.|The required rate of return is difficult to estimate. | c.|Common stock does not promise a fixed cash flow stream.| d.|All of the above are considered difficulties associated with valuing common stock.| ANS: D DIF: E REF: 5.4 Stock Valuation 5. Which of the following stock exchanges has the most strict listing requirements? a.|American Stock Exchange| ...
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...University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Wharton Research Scholars Journal 5-1-2006 Valuation of Venture Capital Securities: An Options Based Approach A. Lloyd Thomas University of Pennsylvania This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/36 For more information, please contact repository@pobox.upenn.edu. Wharton School Valuation of Venture Capital Securities: An Options Based Approach Disciplines Business | Finance and Financial Management This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/36 Valuation of Venture Capital Securities 1 Valuation of Venture Capital Securities An Options Based Approach Wharton Research Scholars 2005-2006 Investigator: A. Lloyd Thomas Supervising Professor: Dr. Raffi Amit Copyright © A. Lloyd Thomas, 2006 Valuation of Venture Capital Securities 2 Table of Contents Table of Contents................................................................................................................ 2 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 3 Venture Capital Financing Negotiations......................................................................... 3 Venture Capital Securities .............................................................................................. 6 Common Stock...
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...Aswath Damodaran 1 Sony: Background on Japanese firms n Japanese firms have proved to be among the most difficult to value for several reasons: • The earnings in 1999 for most Japanese firms was depressed relative to earnings earlier in the decade and in the 1980s, reflecting the Japanese economy • Japanese accounting standards tend to understate earnings and overstate book value of equity, as firms are allowed to set aside provisions for unspecified expenses • The earnings of many export oriented Japanese firms tends to be heavily influenced by exchange rate movements • The cross holdings that Japanese firms have in other firms, and the lack of transparency in these holdings, makes it difficult to value these holdings. Aswath Damodaran 2 Valuing Sony: August 2000 n n n n Sony had net income of 31 billion JPY in 1999, down from 76 billion JPY in 1997 and 38 billion in 1998. The return on equity at Sony dropped from 5.25% in 1997 to 2.13% in 1999. The firm paid out dividends of 21 billion JPY in 1999. Capital expenditures in 1999 amounted to 103 billion JPY, whereas depreciation is 76 billion JPY. Non-cash working capital at Sony in 1999 was 220 billion JPY on revenues of 2593 billion yet, yielding a non-cash working capital to revenue ratio of 8.48%. The long term government bond rate in Japan was 2% at the time of this valuation. Aswath Damodaran 3 Sony: Rationale for Model n n n n n We will normalize earnings to reflect...
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...Valuation Fundamentals Table of Contents www.finaticsonline.com Table of Contents > > > > > Introduction – Concept of Fair Value – Who uses Valuation? Valuation & Wealth Maximization Valuation Approaches Valuation Methods Is there a ‘Best’ method? > > Which method is best suited ? – Public vs Private Company – By Scenario – By Sector Valuation FAQs – General – DCF – Comparables Press Alt, W, F for maximizing viewing area Equity Valuation Fundamentals Introduction – Concept of Fair Value www.finaticsonline.com At Finatics, we define Equity Valuation as “A process that involves determining „Fair Value‟ of a company‟s equity in order to assist buy/sell decisions for the purpose of Financial or Strategic Investment ” So what is Fair Value of an investment? How should the worth of an Investment be determined ? …(Contd) Put Simply, Fair Value is the price at which, one will get the desired rate of return when the investment is sold to a willing & able buyer. The worth of an investment is determined by whether it is meant for long term use to generate returns (i.e. Strategic Investment) or for resale when the „right price‟ or „fair value‟ is achieved (Financial Investment). The purpose of Valuation is to determine a fair value range of an investment (or capital asset) using one or more of several available techniques As discussed, investment related demand will be driven by expected return resulting...
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...Chapter 7: Prospective Analysis: Valuation Theory and Concepts Copyright (c) 2008 Thomson South-Western, a part of the Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and South-Western are trademarks used herein under license. Chapter 7: Prospective Analysis: Valuation Theory and Concepts Palepu & Healy Key Concepts in Chapter 7 • Forecasts (Ch. 6) are converted into estimates of value. • Discounted future dividends, cash flows, and abnormal earnings may be used to estimate value. • Price-based multiples may also be used as value estimates. • No method by itself dominates any of the others. Copyright (c) 2008 Thomson South-Western, a part of the Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and South-Western are trademarks used herein under license. Chapter 7: Prospective Analysis: Valuation Theory and Concepts Palepu & Healy Discounted Dividends Valuation • The present value of future cash flows to shareholders is the basis of the discounted dividends method. • This method is the basis for most theoretical approaches to stock valuation, including the other methods discussed in this chapter. Where re is the cost of equity capital Copyright (c) 2008 Thomson South-Western, a part of the Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and South-Western are trademarks used herein under license. Chapter 7: Prospective Analysis: Valuation Theory and Concepts Palepu & Healy Discounted Abnormal Earnings • Abnormal earnings are...
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...Title of Assignment: Minicase Lawful rights and privileges of common stockholders: Control of the Firm and Preemptive right. 1. Control of the Firm: * In large firms and corporations, common equity stockholders have the right to elect its directors. * They can do so by appointing proxy as well, who can vote on their behalf in meeting. * Board appoints management. * Shareholders can remove directors and managers anytime if board or management team is not effective. 2. Preemptive right: * This right gives common stockholders the right to purchase any additional shares sold by the company. * It prevents a transfer of wealth from current stockholders to new shareholders and enables the old stockholder to maintain control. 1. The value of any stock is the PV (present value) of its expected dividend stream: 2. Constant Growth stock: * A stock whose dividends are expected at a constant rate in foreseeable future is called constant growth stock. * Many established firms, which tend to grow at the same or constant rate that are expected to grow steadily, are valued by constant growth valuation model. * For constant growth stock: With this regular dividend pattern, the general stock valuation model can be simplified to the following very important equation a/k/a “Gordon Model”: 3. The most important condition must be satisfied as per Constant Growth stock is r(s) must be greater than g. Because if g is greater than r(s), then the...
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