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Why Did Global Food Price Rises

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From: Vampire_king1902 To: Thinking Group 17h45’ 09/21/2014

TẠI SAO GIÁ LƯƠNG THỰC TOÀN CẦU TĂNG ĐIỂM? Trong 25 năm qua, giá lương thực toàn cầu đã giảm, thúc đẩy bởi sự tăng năng suất và sản lượng của khu vực nông nghiệp trên toàn thế giới. Trong năm 2007, điều này đã kết thúc đột ngột khi giá lương thực toàn cầu tăng vọt.  Vào tháng năm 2007, giá lúa mì thế giới tăng lên trên $ 400/tấn (mức cao nhất từng được ghi nhận) và tăng từ $ 200/tấn vào tháng 5.  Giá ngô tăng đến $ 175/ tấn, khoảng 60% trên mức trung bình của nó cho năm 2006. Chỉ số giá lương thực, Điều chỉnh lạm phát mà tạp chí Economist có giữ từ năm 1845, đạt mức cao nhất từ trước đến nay trong tháng 12 năm 2007. Một cách giải thích cho giá lương thực tăng cao đã được gia tăng nhu cầu. Nhu cầu tăng đã được thúc đẩy bởi tiêu thụ thực phẩm lớn ở các quốc gia phát triển nhanh chóng, đặc biệt là Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ. Tăng tiêu thụ thịt, đặc biệt, đã đẩy nhu cầu đối với các loại ngũ cốc; phải mất 8 kg ngũ cốc để sản xuất 1 kg thịt bò, vì vậy khi nhu cầu tăng thịt, tiêu thụ ngũ cốc của gia súc tăng lên. Nông dân bây giờ cho gia sức của họ ăn hơn 200-250 triệu tấn ngũ cốc, hơn là họ đã làm cách đây 20 năm, đẩy giá ngũ cốc tăng lên. Sau đó, có vấn đề trợ cấp nhiên liệu sinh học. Cả Hoa Kỳ và Liên minh châu Âu đã áp dụng các chính sách để tăng sản lượng ethanol và diesel sinh học để làm chậm sự nóng lên toàn cầu (bao gồm cả sản phẩm được lập luận để sản xuất lượng khí thải CO2 ít hơn, mặc dù chính xác hiệu quả của họ có làm điều này đang tích cực thảo luận ). Năm 2000, khoảng 15 triệu tấn ngô của Mỹ đã được chuyển thành ethanol. Năm 2007 con số này đạt 85 triệu tấn. Để thúc đẩy sản xuất tăng, chính phủ đã đưa ra các khoản trợ cấp cho nông dân. Trong các khoản trợ cấp Hoa Kỳ sẽ vào khoảng $ 0,29 và $ 0,36 cho mỗi lít ethanol. Ở châu Âu, các khoản trợ cấp cao nhất là $ 1 một lít. Không có gì đáng ngạc nhiên, các khoản trợ cấp đã tạo ra một động lực cho nông dân trồng nhiều loại cây trồng có thể được chuyển thành nhiên liệu sinh học (chủ yếu là ngô và đậu nành). Điều này đã chuyển đất từ sản xuất ngô và đậu nành cho thực phẩm, và giảm việc cung cấp đất dành cho trồng trọt mà không nhận được trợ cấp nhiên liệu sinh học, chẳng hạn như lúa

mì. Điều này có nguồn trợ cấp của nhu cầu dường như có ảnh hưởng lớn đến nhu cầu đối với ngô và đậu nành. Trong năm 2007, ví dụ, sự gia tăng của Mỹ trong nhu cầu sản xuất ethanol từ ngô chiếm hơn một nửa của sự gia tăng toàn cầu về nhu cầu đối với ngô. Điều gì đang làm phức tạp thêm tình hình là mức thuế cao được đóng ra sản xuất các sản phẩm thay thế có thể được chuyển thành nhiên liệu sinh học, đặc biệt là đường mía, từ các thị trường Mỹ và EU bởi mức thuế cao. Brazil, nước sản xuất hiệu quả nhất trên thế giới mía, phải đối mặt với mức thuế nhập khẩu ít nhất 25% theo giá trị tại Hoa Kỳ và 50% trong Liên minh Châu Âu, tăng giá mía nhập khẩu và làm cho nó không thể cạnh tranh với ngô, đậu nành được trợ cấp. Điều này là không may vì mía iswidely xem như là một nguyên liệu thân thiện môi trường hơn cho nhiên liệu sinh học hơn cả bắp hoặc đậu nành. Đường mía sử dụng ít phân bón hơn bắp hay đậu nành và sản xuất năng suất cao hơn cho mỗi ha về năng lượng của nó. Ethanol cũng được sản xuất từ những gì được sử dụng để được coi là một sản phẩm chất thải, loại bỏ các chất xơ từ mía trong quá trình chế biến. Nếu các nhà hoạch định chính sách có cách của họ, tuy nhiên, tình hình có thể nhận được thậm chí còn tồi tệ hơn. Kế hoạch ở cả Hoa Kỳ và Liên minh Châu Âu kêu gọi cho một sự gia tăng trong sản xuất nhiên liệu sinh học, nhưng không phải thực thể chính trị đã đồng ý để giảm hàng rào thuế quan vào cây mía hoặc loại bỏ các khoản trợ cấp bóp méo thương mại cho những người sản xuất ngô và đậu nành cho nhiên liệu sinh học. Brazil không phải là ngồi trên băng ghế dự bị; trong năm 2007, yêu cầu Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới để thăm dò Mỹ trợ cấp cho nông dân ngô để sản xuất ethanol production.

CÂU HỎI TRƯỜNG HỢP THẢO LUẬN 1 Ai được lợi từ các chính sách của Chính phủ (a) thúc đẩy sản xuất ethanol và (b) đánh thuế vào các công ty nhập khẩu mía? Ai là người chịu tổn thất bởi những chính sách này? 2. Một ước tính cho thấy rằng nếu giá lương thực tăng 1/3, chúng sẽ làm giảm mức sống các nước giàu khoảng 3%, những người cực nghèo khoảng 20%. Theo Viện Nghiên cứu Chính sách lương thực quốc tế, nếu những chính sách này không thay đổi, giá ngũ cốc sẽ tăng từ

10 đến 20% vào năm 2015 và mở rộng sản xuất nhiên liệu sinh học có thể làm giảm lượng calo bằng 2-8% vào năm 2020 ở nhiều quốc gia nghèo nhất thế giới. Liệu các nước giàu có nên làm gì để giải quyết về vấn đề này không? Nếu có, thì đó là những biện pháp gì? 3. Sự tranh luận về vấn đề trợ cấp cho nhà sản xuất ethanol dựa vào giả định rằng ethanol làm cho lượng khí thải CO2 thấp hơn so với xăng và do đó có lợi cho môi trường. Nếu chúng ta chấp nhận rằng sự nóng lên toàn cầu là một vấn đề nghiêm trọng trong, liệu chúng ta có nên khuyến khích chính phủ tăng trợ cấp không? Những tranh cãi bảo vệ hoặc chống lại hành động này là gì? Hãy cân nhắc kỹ lưỡng, theo bạn thì chính sách nào là hiệu quả nhất?

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...The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion Marco Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, Karla Z. Bertrand and Yaneer Bar-Yam New England Complex Systems Institute 238 Main St. Suite 319 Cambridge MA 02142, USA reviewed by: C. Peter Timmer - Cabot Professor of Development Studies emeritus. Harvard University Jeffrey C. Fuhrer - Executive Vice President and Senior Policy Advisor. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Richard N. Cooper - Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics. Harvard University Thomas C. Schelling - Distinguished Professor of Economics emeritus. University of Maryland (Dated: September 21, 2011) Abstract Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor...

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