Free Essay

Yield Curve

In:

Submitted By deo11215
Words 429
Pages 2
The yield curve is a graph showing the relationship between bond yields and maturities. This particular U.S. Treasury yield curve is an upward-sloping, or “normal,” yield curve. The shape of the yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates were lower than long-term interest rates. The upward-sloping yield curve is considered the usual situation in the market because short-term securities have less interest rate risk than longer-term securities and, thus, a smaller Maturity Risk Premium (MRP). Therefore, short-term rates are typically lower than long-term rates. There are two primary theories that explain the factors which determine the shape of the yield curve: (1) the pure expectations theory and (2) the liquidity preference theory. The pure expectations theory states that the shape of the yield curve depends on investors’ expectations about future interest rates. According to the pure expectations theory, long-term interest rates are a weighted average of current and expected future short-term interest rates. In addition, investors are indifferent with respect to maturity in the sense that they do not view long-term bonds as being riskier than short-term bonds. Therefore, the Maturity Risk Premium (MRP) is equal to zero under the pure expectations theory. The pure expectations theory would suggest that this particular U.S. Treasury yield curve is upward-sloping because interest rates are expected to increase in the future. This increase could be due to an increase in expected inflation or to an increase in the expected real risk-free rate. The liquidity preference theory states that lenders, other things held constant, would prefer to make short-term loans rather than long-term loans because such securities are more liquid in the sense that they can be converted to cash with little danger of loss of principal. Therefore, investors will generally accept lower yields on short-term securities, which leads to relatively low short-term rates. Borrowers, however, generally prefer long-term debt because short-term debt exposes them to the risk of having to repay the debt under adverse conditions. Borrowers are willing to pay a higher rate, other things held constant, for long-term finds, which also leads to relatively low short-term rates. Thus, lender and borrower liquidity preferences cause short-term rates to be lower than long-term rates. The liquidity preferences theory would suggest that this particular U.S. Treasury yield curve is upward-sloping because a positive Maturity Risk Premium (MRP) exists and the MRP increases with years to maturity, causing the yield curve to be upward-sloping.

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Yield Bond and Curve

...Yield Curve and Bond Valuation Name: Lecturer: Course: Date: Yield Curve and Bond Valuation Question 1 and 2 Based on the information retrieved from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on a 1-month business day, the following information concerning historical dairy interest rates on the U.S treasury was obtained. The rates were picked from the current dates (1st January2012) back to five years a go (1st January 2007). Whereby, if that date was not a business date the preceding date was selected as shown in the table below. |Business Date chosen Five Years Ago |1st January 2007 | |1-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that date |5.02% | |3--month Nominal T-bill Rate on that date |4.79% | |6-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that date |5.11% | |1-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date |5% | |5-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date |4.68% | |10-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date ...

Words: 966 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Humped Yield Curve

...| | | | TTM (Yrs.) | Yield (%) | 0.08 | 2.11 | 0.25 | 2.04 | 0.50 | 1.94 | 1 | 1.82 | 2 | 1.85 | 3 | 1.91 | 4 | 2.03 | 5 | 2.10 | 6 | 2.25 | 7 | 2.46 | 8 | 2.58 | 9 | 2.57 | 10 | 2.65 | 11 | 2.82 | 12 | 3.01 | 13 | 3.15 | 14 | 3.24 | 15 | 3.34 | 16 | 3.37 | 17 | 3.40 | 18 | 3.42 | 19 | 3.45 | 20 | 3.47 | 21 | 3.49 | 22 | 3.51 | 23 | 3.53 | 24 | 3.55 | 25 | 3.57 | 26 | 3.59 | 27 | 3.61 | 28 | 3.63 | 29 | 3.65 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | REASON: For the treasury part, the govt. has received 109.00 billion baht as an income, which considered 11.9 percent lower than the last year. The reason for this is that less taxes; especially value added tax, excise tax and business tax, have been collected this year - this is one of the govt. schemes to boost the economy. Meanwhile, tariff has also been decreased which leads to more importing of foreign goods and services. However, income taxes, both personal income and corporate taxes, still expand at the rate of 6.3 percent this year. On the other hand, the govt. expenditure has increased to the point that the govt. runs a 102.7 billion baht trade deficit. In order to make the trade the govt. compensates the treasury reserve by raising a loan 78.7 billion and spending the treasury reserve 24.0 billion as a result the treasury reserve reduces from 61.4 to 37.4...

Words: 263 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Yield Curve Estimation

...Financial Modelling – Session VII Email: jcadete@clsbe.lisboa.ucp.pt Financial Modelling Joaquim Joaquim Cadete Cadete 1 How your work is going to be scored? Svensson Model: IR Swaps: CIR Model: Modeling Formalization (6) Functions Efficiency Gains (3) Functions Efficiency Gains (3) Further Improvements (5) Efficiency Gains (3) User’s Perspective Your Grade Financial Modelling Joaquim Cadete 2 Risk Management: the main concern… Counterparty risk Credit risk Interest rate risk Capital risk and solvency Funding risk Risk Management Reputational risk Foreign exchange risk Off-balance sheet risk Operational risk Financial Modelling Market or trading risk Sovereign risk Regulatory risk Joaquim Cadete 3 Risk and Return Theories Diversification Standard deviation of portfolio return σ Unsystematic or diversifiable risk Systematic or Total risk market-related risk Number of holdings Financial Modelling Joaquim Cadete 4 Interest rate risk: the first layer of volatility… Operational Risk: Betas. Operational risk Systematic risk or nondiversifiable risk  Unsystematic or diversifiable risk   A Total Risk Shareholders’ risk A E E A  E  A=  E Financial Modelling Joaquim Cadete 5 Interest rate risk: the first layer of volatility… Operational Risk: Betas. If  A =  E, then RA =...

Words: 2657 - Pages: 11

Free Essay

Why Bonds with Different Interest Rates Have Different Maturities

...maturities can have different interest rates. I will do so by explaining the importance of understanding the term structure, as well as the three theories that support the term structure; the expectations theory, the segmented markets theory, and the liquidity premium theory. Term Structure According to Hubbard and O’Brien, the term structure “is the relationship among the interest rates on bonds that are otherwise similar but have different maturities.” Term structure is most commonly analyzed by looking at the Treasury yield curve, which is the relationship of interest rates on Treasury bonds with different maturities on a particular day. Yields generally tend to move in line with maturity, producing an upward sloping yield curve or a “normal yield curve.” Rarely, however, the yields on the long-term treasuries fall below the yields of short-term treasuries. This creates an inverted yield curve. According to a class lecture, six times when the yield curve became inverted, there was an economic recession. Wheelock and Wohar believe that term structure plays an important role in an economy because it “has been found useful for forecasting such variables as output growth, inflation, industrial production, consumption, and recessions.” The Expectations Theory According to Hubbard and O’Brien, the expectations theory “holds that the interest rate on a long-term bond is an average of the interest rates investors expect on short-term bonds over the lifetime of the bond.” As an...

Words: 891 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Finance Mini Case Chapter 1

...Chapter 1 ------------------------------------------------- An Overview of Corporate Finance and ------------------------------------------------- The Financial Environment MINI CASE ------------------------------------------------- Assume that you recently graduated with a degree in finance and have just reported to work as an investment advisor at the brokerage firm of Balik and Kiefer Inc. One of the firm’s clients is Michelle Dellatorre, a professional tennis player who has just come to the United States from Chile. Dellatorre is a highly ranked tennis player who would like to start a company to produce and market apparel that she designs. She also expects to invest substantial amounts of money through Balik and Kiefer. Dellatorre is also very bright, and, therefore, she would like to understand, in general terms, what will happen to her money. Your boss has developed the following set of questions which you must ask and answer to explain the U.S. financial system to Dellatorre. ------------------------------------------------- a. Why is corporate finance important to all managers? Answer: Corporate finance provides the skills managers need to: (1) identify and select the corporate strategies and individual projects that add value to their firm; and (2) forecast the funding requirements of their company, and devise strategies for acquiring those funds. ------------------------------------------------- ...

Words: 3523 - Pages: 15

Premium Essay

Mb Ch6

...called the A) junk premium. B) capitalized risk. C) default premium. D) risk premium. 3) Other things being equal, an increase in the default risk of corporate bonds shifts the demand curve for corporate bonds to the _____ and the demand curve for Treasury bonds to the _____. A) left; left B) left; right C) right; right D) right; left 4) An increase in the riskiness of corporate bonds will _____ the yield on corporate bonds and _____ the yield on Treasury securities. A) increase; reduce B) reduce; reduce C) increase; not affect D) reduce; increase E) increase; increase 5) Bonds with relatively low risk of default are called A) investment grade bonds. C) zero coupon bonds. 6) Which of the following statements are true? A) A corporate bond's return becomes more uncertain as default risk increases. B) An increase in default risk on corporate bonds lowers the demand for these bonds, but increases the demand for default-free bonds. C) As their relative riskiness increases, the expected return on corporate bonds decreases relative to the expected return on default-free bonds. D) The expected return on corporate bonds decreases as default risk increases. E) All of the above are true statements. 7) An increase in the liquidity of corporate bonds will _____ the price of corporate bonds and _____ the yield of Treasury bonds. A) reduce; increase B) increase; reduce C) increase; not affect D) reduce; reduce E) increase; increase B)...

Words: 1256 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Financial Management

...1: CORPORATIONS & FINANCIAL DECISION-MAKING Four Types of Firms US | Four Types of Firms AUS | * Sole proprietorship * Partnership * Limited liability company * Corporation | * Sole traders * Partnerships * Trusts * Companies | Corporations * Legal entity separate from its owners must be legally formed * Ownership represented by shares of stock, sum of which is OE * Tax implications * Double taxation in the US (only concerned with ‘C’ corporations) * Corporate tax rate is 34% * Personal tax rate on dividend income is 15% * Dividend imputation in Australia (franking credits) * You only pay the amount required to make your total tax rate your personal Dividend Imputation * Australian company tax rate: τc=30% * Company earning for $1 dividend income: gross dividend=div1-tc * For $1 dividends, company must earn $1.4286 @ 30% company tax rate * Franking (imputation) credit: Dividends paid have a credit attached for tax paid by the corporation franking credit=gross div-div=div1-τc*τc * Shareholders compute tax at their own tax rate (τp) based on the corporation’s pre-tax income, then subtract the tax paid at the corporate level net shareholder tax=div1-τc*(τP-τC) Corporate Ownership versus Control * Shareholders: Own the Corp, but have no say in daily operations * Board of Directors: * Elected by shareholders * Ultimate decision-making authority ...

Words: 6606 - Pages: 27

Premium Essay

Ltcm

...different trading strategies of LTCM Answer: LTCM engaged in primarily in convergence and relative value strategies. Relative value strategy : It is a spread trade and it involves two assets whose prices or yields tend to converge with time . it involves long and short positions of similar instruments. This often happens when a company has more than one holding company listed in different markets (e.g. Royal Dutch and Shell). The price divergence in these different markets creates profitability. Although the price may not completely converge, but the premium tends to narrow over time. Convergence Strategy: In case of convergence strategy the two asset prices or yields must converge. when there was a specifiable future date(usually medium-term fixed maturities) by which convergence of offsetting short and long positions in similar instruments should occur. An example would be a strategy consists of buying off-the-run high yield bonds and shorting on-the-run low yield bonds. Once the newly issued on-the-run bonds become off-the run, the yields on the two bonds converge and LTCM makes a profit. This is a simple strategy and not necessarily a risky trade since it is very likely that the yields will converge once the on-the-run bonds become off-the-run. Since the yield spread between on- and off-the-run bonds is very narrow, it is possible to make significant profits only with large positions. It also involved in directional trades, which were un-hedged positions like long...

Words: 2745 - Pages: 11

Premium Essay

Debt Markets

...Working Draft: No Guarantees August 27, 1998 Home page: http: www.stern.nyu.edu ~dbackus Contents Preface 1 Debt Instruments 1.1 Overview : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1.2 The Instruments : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : v 1 1 2 I Instruments with Fixed Payments 2 Bond Arithmetic 2.1 Prices and Yields in the US Treasury Market : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2.2 Replication and Arbitrage : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2.3 Day Counts and Accrued Interest : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2.4 Other Conventions : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2.5 Implementation Issues : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2.6 Common Yield Fallacies : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2.7 Forward Rates optional : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 8 9 9 14 17 19 23 24 26 3 Macrofoundations of Interest Rates 39 CONTENTS i 4 Quantifying Interest Rate Risk 4.1 Price and Yield : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 4.2 More on Duration : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 4.3 Immunization : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 4.4 Convexity optional : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 4.5 Fixed Income Funds : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :...

Words: 61190 - Pages: 245

Premium Essay

Financial

...MEASURES OF CREDIT SPREAD: YIELD SPREAD: Yield Spread is the difference between the yield-to-maturity of a risky bond and the yield-to-maturity of an on-the-run treasury benchmark bond with similar but not necessarily identical maturity. YTM is the constant discount rate which, when applied to the bond’s cash flows, re-prices the bond. Assumptions: * An investor who buys a bond can achieve a return equal to the YTM if the bond is held to maturity and if all coupons can be reinvested at the same rate as the YTM. In practice, this is difficult if not impossible to achieve since changes in the credit quality of the issuer may cause yields to change through time. As many investors may re-invest coupons at rates closer to LIBOR, at least temporarily, the realized return will usually be lower than the YTM. * The YTM assumes that the yield curve is flat which is not generally true. In practice, there are different reinvestment rates for different maturities. The YTM assumes that these reinvestment rates are the same for all maturities. Weaknesses: * It shares all of the weaknesses of the YTM measure in terms of constant reinvestment rate and hold to maturity. * It is not a measure of return of a long-defaultable bond, short treasury position. * As a relative value measure, it can only be used with confidence to compare different bonds with the same maturity which may have different coupons. * The benchmark security’s maturity may not match that...

Words: 2238 - Pages: 9

Free Essay

Econ Banking Help

...Chapter 6 Rate The Risk and Term Structure of Interest In the previous section, we have generalized our discussion of the influence of various factors on the behavior in interest rate by examining only a particular type of bonds: namely, the 1-year zero coupon bond. However, there are many types of bonds: bonds with different maturity, bonds issued by different parties (i.e. government vs. corporate), etc. As a result, there is a different interest rate for each type of bond. We will look at the behavior of interest rates of two groups of bonds: (1) Bonds with the same features but are issued by different agency. In other words, we want to look at the risk structure of interest rates. (2) Bonds issued by the same agency but have different term to maturity (i.e. life of the bond). In other words, we want to look at the term structure of interest rates. 1. Risk structure of interest rate As we have discussed in the previous section, the (relative) risk level of an asset affects its demands according to the theory of asset demand. The higher the relative risk level, the lower the demand of that asset. According to the theory of asset demand, this leads to an increase in interest rate. In other words, investors need to be compensated with a higher return (in the form of higher interest rate) in order to induce them to hold the assets. There are a number of factors that affect the risk level of a bond. In this section, we will focus on only 3 of them: default risk, liquidity, and tax...

Words: 3232 - Pages: 13

Free Essay

Finanacial

...The Financial Environment: Markets, Institutions, and Interest Rates In addition to these notes, please read chapter 3 and pages 191 through 206 of chapter 5. Problems 5-18 through 5-23 of chapter 5 are related to this topic. Since this part of the course deals with different types of markets, let us start by defining what these markets are. What are markets in general? Markets are transactions where individuals or organizations exchange items. The exchange could be goods for goods, goods for service, or goods and services for money. Whenever you exchange something for another you have a market. Again a market is a transaction, not a physical location. Now, let us look at the different types of markets: Markets for physical assets(财产,有利条件): These are markets where tangible(有形的) assets, things you can touch are exchanged for money. Markets for financial assets: These are markets where financial assets sold and bought. Financial assets are intangible. Examples of financial assets include stocks (股票,存货)and bonds(债券). By buying a financial asset you become an owner of a company or a lender to one. Buying a stock makes you one of the owners of a corporations and buying a bond makes you one of the lenders. Money versus capital markets: Money markets are markets where money is borrowed for short time periods, usually less than a year. Here the loans are used mainly to manage cash in a corporation. If a firm has...

Words: 1716 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Interest Rate Structure

... bonds  with  the  same  maturity  have  different  yields/  interest   rates?      =>  Risk  structure  of  interest  rates   ¤  Why  bonds  with  iden3fied  characteris3cs  have  different  yields/   interest  rates?    =>  Term  structure  of  interest  rates   FIGURE  1    Long-­‐Term  Bond  Yields,  1919– 2008   Sources:  Board  of  Governors  of  the  Federal  Reserve  System,  Banking  and  Monetary  Sta4s4cs,  1941–1970;  Federal  Reserve:   www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm.   Risk  Structure  of  Interest  Rates   ¤ Bonds   with   the   same   maturity   have   different   interest   rates   due   to   they   have   different   characteris3cs  of:   ¤ Default  risk   ¤ Liquidity     ¤ Tax  considera3ons/  tax  status   ¤ Special  provisions   Default  risk   ¤ Default  (credit)  risk:  probability  that  the  issuer  of   the  bond  is  unable  or  unwilling  to  make  interest   payments  or  pay  off  the  face  value   ¤ Securi3es  with  a  higher  degree  of  risk  have  to  offer   higher  yields  to  be  chosen   ¤ Credit  risk  is  especially...

Words: 2352 - Pages: 10

Premium Essay

Module 4 Reflection and Self Assessment

...payments either by fixed rate, floating rate, or zero coupon. The bond issuers are required to repay the principle full amount in a lump sum after the bond has reached maturity. The default risk of the bond can be evaluated first-hand to decide if it’s worth investing. It may also be redeemed before the maturity date if it has a “call feature.” Bonds are typically issued in $1,000 or $5,000 denominations. 4. There are three main patterns created by the term structure of interest rates. There are normal, flat, and inverted yield curves. The normal yield curve means that as general current interest rates increase, the price of a bond will decrease and its yield will increase. With a flat yield curve, investors can maximize their risk/return tradeoff by choosing fixed income securities with the least risk or highest credit quality. Lastly, with an inverted yield curve, interest rates decline as time moves farther into the future, which means the yields of long-term bonds will decline. This is a very rare circumstance. This can sometimes be an indicator of a market slowdown. 5. The coupon rate determines if a bond is set at discount value, par, or premium. If it’s discount value, the coupon value is lower than the YTM. If it’s par, that means it’s coupon rate is equal to its YTM. If it’s premium value, the coupon rate is higher than its YTM. 6. When investors buy a stock, they buy a piece of the company also known as a share. Companies raise money by issuing said stock...

Words: 414 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Fixed Income Security

...© CSI GLOBAL EDUCATION INC. (2011) 7•1 Chapter 7 Fixed-Income Securities: Pricing and Trading © CSI GLOBAL 7•2 EDUCATION INC. (2011) 7 Fixed-Income Securities: Pricing and Trading CHAPTER OUTLINE How are Price and Yield of a Bond Calculated? • Calculating the Fair Price of a Bond • Calculating the Yield on a Treasury Bill • Calculating the Current Yield on a Bond • Calculating the Yield to Maturity on a Bond What is the Term Structure of Interest Rates? • The Real Rate of Return • The Yield Curve What are the Fundamental Bond Pricing Properties? • The Relationship Between Bond Prices and Interest Rates • The Impact of Maturity • The Impact of the Coupon • The Impact of Yield Changes • Duration as a Measure of Bond Price Volatility What are Bond-Switching Strategies? How does Bond Market Trading Work? • Clearing and Settlement • Calculating Accrued Interest © CSI GLOBAL EDUCATION INC. (2011) 7•3 What are Bond Indexes? • Canadian Bond Market Indexes • Global Indexes Summary LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this chapter, you should be able to: 1. Defi ne present value and the discount rate, and perform calculations relating to the time value of money, bond pricing and yield. 2. Defi ne a real rate of return and a yield curve, and evaluate three theories of interest rate determination. 3. Analyze the impact of fi xed-income pricing properties on bond prices. 4. Explain the rationale for bond switching and describe bond-switching strategies. ...

Words: 11227 - Pages: 45