...After the 2007-2008 crisis there appeared to be many discussions on what were the reasons behind the sudden collapse in financial system.In this work Nicholas Barberis discusses some ways of analyzing the crisis with the help of ideas from psychology.He focuses on three aspects of the crisis: estate plunge,high accumulation of subprime-linked securities and the decline the value of risky assets. The first one is the surge house prices in the years up to 2006.The author questions whether there was a real estate bubble and suggests to study the bubbles and their origin deeper.He also claims that currently there are too many theories behind the formation of bubbles,however,very little are tested and refined.There are many theories which try to explain the reason behind the formation of bubbles.Professor Barberis draws our attention to 5 possible theories behind the formation of bubbles of which he prefers the over-extrapolation theory.Although the author likes the over-extrapolation theory,he argues that this idea itself is not enough to generate a real estate bubble.The reason which lies behind is that houses are bought using outside financing. However,the author still claims that there is a common factor in many previous crisis:a tendency on the part of some market participants to extrapolate past prices increases too far into the future. Author asked why did the banks accumulate so many subprime-linked holdings which carried some significant risks.And provides 3 popular...
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...Escaping the Recession 2007 Is Creating Recession? Han Tran Principles of Macroeconomics Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University at Fullerton December 2, 2010 Abstract The Economic Recession 2007 is the second worst recession in American history. It starts out within the housing market. Then, it expands and harms the other business sectors clearly. To illustrate, the U.S GDP failed by around 7%. Americans struggles who laid-off so unemployment rate shoot up to 9.7%. Many retirees lose their money due to the failure of many investment vehicles. The stock market performance declines because companies go bankrupt. Faced the threat of another Great Depression, the government and Federal Reserve Bank immediately interfere to boost up the economy using many fiscal and monetary policies. These efforts definitely help to improve or at least lighten the crisis’s impact on households and businesses. However, economists are concerned by the potential risks of future inflation and debts. 1. Introduction It started out as a failure of the housing market only. However, unexpectedly and quickly expanded, it flooded the whole economy with bankruptcy, unemployment and failure of stock market and other investment vehicles. It is the Recession 2007 whose damages are just less than the Great Depression. The following paper primarily demonstrates the causation of the Recession 2007, the responded policies of the government or the Federal...
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...THE FUTURE OF FORECLOSURE LAW IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT HOUSING CRISIS OF 2007-2014 Clinical Professor of Law Notre Dame Law School Judith Fox 54 WASHBURN L. J. (forthcoming, 2015) Notre Dame Law School Legal Studies Research Paper No. 1504 A complete list of Research Papers in this Series can be found at: http://www.ssrn.com/link/notre-dame-legal-studies.html This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2573203 Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2573203 The Future of Foreclosure Law in the Wake of the Great Housing Crisis of 2007-2014 Judith Fox* ABSTRACT As 2014 came to an end so, perhaps, did the worst foreclosure crisis in U.S. history. On January 15, 2015, RealityTrac, one of the nation’s leading reporters of housing data, declared the foreclosure crisis had ended. Whether or not their declaration proves true, the aftermath of the crisis will be felt for years to come. During the crisis it is estimated more than five million families lost their homes to foreclosure. Federal, state and local responses to the crisis changed laws and perceptions regarding foreclosure. Despite these changes, we end the crisis much the way we began---with a nationwide foreclosure system mistrusted and disliked by lenders and consumers alike. This paper examines the responses to the crisis in an effort to determine what worked, what did not, and where foreclosure law should...
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...LEADERSHIP AND ETHICAL DECISIONS PERFORMED BY KENNETH LEWIS AND THE FED DURRING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007-2008 November 29, 2010 Introduction The robust leadership decisions of both the Fed and Kenneth Lewis, CEO of Bank of America (B of A), were not only ethical and accurate, but could have simply saved our financial system as we know it. During the weekend of September 13-14, 2008 Kenneth Lewis met with CEO of Merrill Lynch (Merrill), John Thain, in order to try and rescue Merrill from a hasty bankruptcy that lurked around the corner. Lewis was thinking that it was the perfect opportunity to add the only thing that B of A lacked after recent acquisitions, a “Wall Street investment bank that underwrote and sold securities” (Pozen and Beresford, 2010). On December 5, 2008 B of A’s shareholders voted to approve the merger between the two (Pozen and Beresford, 2010). It wasn’t until days later that Lewis became progressively more concerned about the growing fourth quarter losses on Merrill’s books, from $5.38 billion on November 12 to $12 billion on December 14, one month later. By mid December Lewis began looking for a way out of the deal before the scheduled closing date in late January. Both the Fed and the U.S. Treasury Secretary, resisting that Lewis walk away, threatened to fire Lewis and replace the board at B of A if the merger didn’t take place. Lewis, afraid of legalities from not disclosing the losses to their shareholders before the vote, and the drop in...
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...Indian economy before us recession India had been growing robustly at an annual average rate of 8.8 per cent for the past five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). This was higher than the potential growth rate of output as estimated by the IMF. The strong Indian growth story, based on its structural strengths of a young population, skilled manpower, rising savings and investment rates, large unfulfilled domestic demand and globally competitive firms attracted significant investor attention in recent years. Recent high rates of economic growth have been the result of high levels of investment, rise in productivity supported by technological up-gradation and greater integration with global flows of trade, finance and technology. The challenge is to sustain these high growth rates while also preventing an unacceptable rise in income and spatial inequities and also eliminating absolute poverty in a given time frame. The answer to this challenge is in raising India’s potential rate of output growth by removing the binding constraints. We have also estimated the potential growth rate for India during the last decade based on HP filter technique (Hodrick and Prescott, 1997) and found that in the last three years, India had been growing above its potential growth rate. Figure 6: Potential GDP Growth and Output Gap (1997-08 to 2007-08) Note: Based on HP filter technique as proposed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997). Fears of over-heating of the economy prompted the Reserve...
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...The World Financial Crisis: Will It Continue To Deepen? Introduction The Great Recession of the 21st Century (Wesel, 2010), which began in 2007, has affected the entire world economy; admittedly, some countries have been hit harder than others but few nations can really say that they have been entirely spared from the crisis. What is more, the devastating repercussions of the financial crisis can still be observed to this day, more than five years since it first began, as numerous countries around the globe are still struggling to get back on track. The road to recovery from the financial crisis has been more difficult than initially anticipated and, with the dawn of a new year, it is still hard to say whether things will start looking better for the world economy or not. The question on everybody’s mind is whether the world financial crisis will continue to deepen or not. Background Though still a somewhat a highly debated matter, the onset of the world financial crisis can be pinpointed to 7 August 2007, when BNP Paribas terminated withdrawals from three hedge funds, on grounds of a complete lack of liquidity (Elliot, 2012). For the two years that followed this incident, the world economy was on a continuous downward spiral. Economies around the globe started to slow down, some faster than others, stock markets began to drop, international trade declined, and credit tightened. In the United Kingdom for example, the catalyst for the economic crisis that engulfed the...
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...I would like to start off with the different types of home mortgages that were available during the time frame of the start of the crisis. The biggest offender was the no income, no job, and no asset loans. This is one of the craziest mortgage loans that was introduced towards the start of the crisis, the homeownership during this time increased to over 70 percent in the U.S. These loans were then packaged and then sold to investors all over wall street and the world this type of mortgages are also known as subprime. Another nightmare is the first and second mortgages that combines the original loan and then typically a loan for the 20% down that most lenders requires, the problem is the first loan has a normal interest rate and the second has a much high interest rate. But this type of loan got many people in homes the quick and easy way instead of saving for the 20% down in cash. Then we had the interest only loans, which is the interest is paid with no reduction in principal allowing more house for the money during the plan, unfortunately after the introduction when it came time to start paying on the interest and the principal most people realize they took on more than they could afford, unable to sell most just walked away. None of the loans mentioned above could have started the melt down until the banks started increase the debt to income ratio. Allowing buyers to utilize more of their income towards the mortgage in turn making many house poor and to the point that...
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...| | | | There were many factors that lead to the financial crisis of 2008. In 2001 America was facing the possibility of a recession, in part due to the terrorism attack. Fearing this recession the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates drastically with the plan to slowly increase it over time. Banks and other financial institutions saw this as an opportunity to make money and used the low interest rate to capitalize in real estate. Banks began the spiral of offering no money down mortgages with the cheap money interest rates to subprime borrowers, many which had little money and no assets. As the real estate business began to boom the prices of houses increased. Many people felt a false sense of security in the value and asset of owning a home could offset the failing stock market. Banks began to repackage these loans into collateralized debt obligations and sold them out to other financial institutions creating complex chains of debts. As the interest rates increased as planed the risks began to unravel. By 2006 many borrowers were defaulting on mortgages they could no longer afford to sustain and the housing market began to decline. In 2007 feeling the financial effects of the bad loans; many institutions were showing hundreds of millions in losses and expecting more each day as more people defaulted on their loans. It was at that point the public panicked realizing that the economy was spiraling with no hope of recovery. Banks came to a financial halt and many...
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...What caused the financial crisis of 2008 and who is responsible for it? My original intent for this paper was to argue that market failure, particularly in the housing sector, was the primary cause for the crash. Unfortunately my research has lead me in a different direction. According to the discussions we had in class that means I should be arguing from the perspective that the crisis was caused by government intervention then, right? I’m not so sure that’s the case either. Instead I’ll argue that the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the following “Great Recession” were the result of a perfect storm of both regulatory and market failure. Senators Carl Levin and Tom Coburn lead a 2-year long Senate subcommittee investigation into the crash. In April 2011 they released a 635 page report on their findings where they concluded that there was indeed no singular cause of the crash. The bipartisan subcommittee implicates several primary causes. Inflated credit ratings on mortgage related securities are cited as being “…the most immediate cause of the financial crisis…” The two primary rating firms, Standard & Poors and Moody’s had been assigning risk profiles to mortgage related securities similar to that of Treasury Bills – widely regarded as the most secure investment you can make since the government can just print money to pay you. In July of 2007 both firms did massive downgrades that exposed how risky these investments actually were. The downgrades resulted in a...
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...QUT | Case Study 4: Market Efficiency | Bill Miller and Value Trust | | Name: Huey Ngu Student ID: 08324093Tutor Name: David FairDate: 1 November 2013 | Words: 1097 | Contents Introduction 2 Past and current performance of Value Trust 2 Investment strategy of Bill Miller 3 Efficient Market Hypothesis 3 Bill Miller’s letter to shareholders 4 Changes in Chief Investment Officer (CIO) 4 Recommendation and Conclusion 4 Reference 6 Appendices 8 Appendix A: Data of LMVTX, S&P 500, and 30 years bond 8 Appendix B: Alpha and Beta between 1991 and 2013 9 Appendix C: Alpha and Beta between 1991 and 2005 9 Appendix D: Alpha and Beta between 2006 and 2013 9 Introduction Bill Miller is known as famous fund manager that hold the record of beating benchmark index for 15 years in a row. However, his poor performance after 2005 was the reason that the investors run away from his fund. Hence, arguments of whether Bill Miller’s previous performances involve luck or skills appear. Furthermore, this report will also discuss whether investors should invest in Bill Miller’s Value Trust. Past and current performance of Value Trust Figure [ 1 ]: LMVTX VS S&P500 (Morningstar Principia , 2013) Bill Miller had made an achievement of longest streak performance of beating the market. Refer to figure 1, it had showed that Bill Miller’s Value Trust had consistently beat the benchmark index of Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) between 1991 and...
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...former Chairman Chris Dodd and therefor named after the two men. The Dodd-Frank represents the most comprehensive financial regulatory reform measures taken since the Great Depression; it was initiated in response to the devastating Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. In simplest terms, the Dodd-Frank Act is a law that places major regulations on the financial industry. In general, the 2,300-page act covers virtually every aspect of the financial services and banking industries. The Act imposed restrictions and reforms upon the industries that had previously been lacking of any substantial regulations. In 2010, President Barack Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Act in to Law to help secure the future economy of the U.S. However, before the official passing of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, America had gone years without accountability for Wall Street and other large banks. The country suffered its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression due to this failure to hold these banks liable for their actions. Businesses failed, the housing market crashed, personal savings were wiped out, and millions of jobs were lost. There are just a few of the repercussions that America suffered due to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The passing of the Dodd-Frank Act helped reestablish confidence in the country’s financial structure. People could be guaranteed that financial institutions were acting responsibly and appropriately. Generally, one of the most significant...
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...Introduction The financial crisis of 2007–08, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists to have been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It threatened the collapse of large financial institutions, which was prevented by the bailout of banks by national governments, but stock markets still dropped worldwide. In many areas, the housing market also suffered, resulting in evictions, foreclosures and prolonged unemployment. The crisis played a significant role in the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in trillions of U.S. dollars, and a downturn in economic activity leading to the 2008–2012 global recession and contributing to the European sovereign-debt crisis. The active phase of the crisis, which manifested as a liquidity crisis, can be dated from August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas terminated withdrawals from three hedge funds citing "a complete evaporation of liquidity". Many causes for the financial crisis have been suggested, with varying weight assigned by experts.The U.S. Senate's Levin–Coburn Report concluded that the crisis was the result of "high risk, complex financial products; undisclosed conflicts of interest; the failure of regulators, the credit rating agencies, and the market itself to rein in the excesses of Wall Street." The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded that the financial crisis was avoidable and was caused by "widespread failures...
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...company information; analyst reporting processes; and market impacts. The common information concerns ‘soft’ or qualitative information about the company intellectual capital (IC) or intangibles in the company business model. Banks and bank analysts are used as examples. Knowledge, social and economic factors in the wider ‘market for information’ (MFI) are shown to be major influences on ‘soft information’ and how it changes in analyst information intermediation processes. Negative knowledge and social factors play a role in weakening and eventually destabilising economic processes in analyst and the MFI. They were important factors in creating knowledge and information problems in analysts and the MFI, both ongoing, and during the crisis of 2007-09. These factors are also part of a solution to the problems. The solutions include improved, transparent knowledge of business models of companies, analysts, and rest of MFI. They also include active use of social forces to create critical and reflexive performativity conditions in the MFI. The empirical analysis is discussed in a novel theoretical...
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...The Role of Unethical Decisions The Great Recession was caused by a massive movement of the whole banking industry disregarding ethical behavior and leaving the philosophy of sound investing strategies for a philosophy of profits. In evaluating the role of unethical decisions in causing the financial crisis, we will start by defining ethics. Ethics can be defined as rules of behavior based on ideas about what is morally good and bad. In every profession, each person has to abide by codes of ethical standards for that profession. So with regards to the financial crisis individuals acted in an unethical manner which eventually aided in the great recession. In analyzing the sources of the problem in the financial crisis, such as poor risk controls, too much leverage and an almost willful blindness to the bubble-like conditions in the housing market, we can strongly say that ethics did play a major role. Financial firms became unmoored from its ethical base and were free to behave in ways that were in their, top executives, short-term interest without any concern about the longer term impact on the industry’s customers or the broader U.S economy. Integrity and a sense of responsibility to the industry’s customers are at the core of what a financial industry must be all about; otherwise it is just a big Ponzi scheme. The ethical failures in the subprime lending played a major role in the financial as mortgage brokers did not care about the credit worthiness of the borrowers as...
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...The Evolution of FinTech: A New Post-Crisis Paradigm? Douglas W. Arner* Jànos Barberis** Ross P. Buckley*** Abstract: “Financial technology” or “FinTech” refers to technology enabled financial solutions. FinTech is often seen today as the new marriage of financial services and information technology. However, the interlinkage of finance and technology has a long history and has evolved over three distinct eras. FinTech 1.0, from 1866 to 1987, was the first period of financial globalization supported by technological infrastructure such as transatlantic transmission cables. This was followed by FinTech 2.0, from 1987-2008, during which financial services firms increasingly digitized their processes. Since 2008 a new era of FinTech has emerged in both the developed and developing world. This era is defined not by the financial products or services delivered but by who delivers them. This latest evolution of FinTech, led by start-ups, poses challenges for regulators and market participants alike, particularly in balancing the potential benefits of innovation with the possible risks of new approaches. * Professor, Co-Director, Duke-HKU Asia America Institute in Transnational Law, and Member, Board of Management, Asian Institute of International Financial Law, Faculty of Law, University of Hong Kong. ** Senior Research Fellow, Asian Institute of International Financial Law, Faculty of Law, University of Hong Kong; and Founder, FinTech HK. *** CIFR King...
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