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2050 Economy

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Global Economics January 2012

The World in 2050
From the Top 30 to the Top 100
A new economic world order is emerging at extraordinary speed. This publication broadens our list of the world’s top 30 economies to the top 100. The underlying theme is that the economies we currently call “emerging” are going to power global growth over the next four decades. Our update tells the story of the emergence of parts of Africa, the rise of some of the central Asian republics, as well as some startling advances for countries such as the Philippines and Peru.

By Karen Ward

Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

Economics Global 11 January 2012

abc

From the Top 30 to the Top 100
 Attention will increasingly turn to the ‘new emergers’ as the world

economy undergoes a seismic shift
 Demographics to play a crucial role, helping parts of Africa finally

emerge from economic obscurity

When we published ‘The World in 2050’ a year ago (4 January 2011), we gave a projection for the Top 30 economies by size in 2050 from a pool of the largest 40 economies today. This update casts a wider net and seeks to identify the Top 100 economies by size. A larger universe increases competition for the Top 30 and allows us to consider the ‘new emergers’ in the coming decades. Our ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and the factors that will determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change, allowing us to project forward GDP to 2050. We assume that policymakers will continue to make progress in addressing economic flaws and that they avoid wars and remain open to...

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