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2777.Hk Research

In: Business and Management

Submitted By examtips
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As mentioned by the GS analysts in their Equity research report, there is a rosy growth for the coming fiscal years (2012). It is not hard to understand this due to the below 2 reasons:

A clear market leader – Building on its 80-year heritage, CTF enjoys the largest market share of 12.6% and 20.1% in China and Hong Kong, respectively. Its retail network of 1,506 stores as of Sept 2011 is also the largest among peers (such as Luk Fook 590.HK) and Chow Sang Sang (116.HK). There is no doubt that CTF can enjoy a high growth when compared with LF and CSS for the 2012.
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Source: Frost & Sullivan, AAstocks

Vertical integration - CTF produces about 50% of gold and 80% of jewelry products in house. The higher-than-average self-production ratio allows CTF to closely monitor product quality and react to market trend better. CTF currently has 9 jewelry factories and 3 diamond cutting and polishing factories. The costs involved in production will be greatly reduced which can directly and indirectly increase the profit margin. CTF is also a site holder with Diamond Trading Company (DTC), enabling good access to high quality diamonds. Among HK listed jewelry retailers, only CTF and Chow Sang Sang are DTC site holders in Hong Kong.

(Source: http://corporate.chowtaifook.com; http://www.diamondworld.net/contentview.aspx?item=2082)

Financials Analysis from GS: We look for 40% growth in FY13E and 29% in EY14E

CTF has higher earning risk than LF and CSS
10% downside risk on CTF’s FY3/13 consensus earnings
We believe consensus forecast for CTF is too optimistic. In particular, consensus sees CTF’s earnings can still rise by 42% in FY3/13 despite achieving already high earnings growth of 82% in FY3/12 and a weaker macro environment in FY3/13. Instead, we consider a 27% earning growth for CTF in FY3/13 is more reasonable. Our FY3/13 earnings are about 10%...

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