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A Statistical Analysis of Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Numbers

In: Computers and Technology

Submitted By kdavy91
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A statistical analysis of consumer confidence and unemployment numbers
An analysis in R

Clemens Timmermans (s0867144) 5/1/2009

INTRODUCTION
Statistics matters. CBS.nl presents Dutch facts every month and to make sense of this data statistical analysis is a must. Without this kind of analysis these numbers are just numbers without meaning. For this paper the input came from CBS.nl as well, and here I will outline what the predictive capability of the consumer confidence indicator is for unemployment rates in the Netherlands. There could be a possible causal relationship between customer confidence and unemployment numbers because the consumer confidence indicator is assumed to be an indicator of their buying behavior and therefore may influence employment numbers, because products may or may not have to be produced if customers start or stop buying them. In this paper we will explore the data and see if there is such a causal relationship. Of course, a misinterpretation of numbers due to statistics is a problem that is lurking, and should be taken seriously. Therefore constructing conclusions in a valid way is important and by showing my full line of thought this is how I try to avoid, or at least expose, interpretation errors. The reason that this type of research has value for business is that the knowledge obtained in this paper may be an input into decision making about hiring new employees for instance. Furthermore, it is important to know how long it takes in general for the customer confidence indicator to ‘hit’ the companies to sack employees, so this can be taken into account when planning ahead. Next to this it would also be very interesting for people looking for a job or already working to see how the market develops if they were able to predict this on the basis of the customer confidence indicator.

DATA EXPLORATION
There are two sets of...

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