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Advanced Corporate Finance

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La política económica
Los subsidios en Argentina después la gran crisis financiera en 2001
Profesora:. Marta Caruso
Clase: Historia Económica de America Latina (PEAL 369)
Fecha: 31/10/2013

Nombre: Fabio Giacomo Müller

El gobierno argentino usa un gran parte de los gastos públicos a los subsidios. Una cantidad alta mana a la financiación de los subsidios. En 2013 el parte de los subsidios en por ciento del PIB totaliza un 5%. Aún grandes cortes en 2011 y 2012 no impidió un gran crecimiento de los gastos en subsidios. La primera vez cuando yo reconocía ese situación era cuando compre billetes para vuelos a Iguazú. Encontré billetes y cuando yo quise comprarlos necesité ingresar mi numero y país de mi pasaporte. Después el precio subió una cantidad cuantiosa porque cambié la nacionalidad de Argentina a Alemán. Una cantidad que el estado paga por los residentes de Argentina para estimular el comportamiento de los consumidores. Después la crisis financiera en 2001 y la anulación del tipo de cambio fijado. El gobierno de kirchnerismo empezó a cambiar las facturas de servicios, que estaban en dolars, en Pesos Argentinos y se las congeló. Por la desvalorización rápida del Peso Argentino el ingreso de las tarifas congeladas no eran suficiente para cubrir los gastos. Por cuanto que el gobierno se hizo cargo a el déficit entre los ingresos de las tarifas congeladas y los costos de la facilitación, los subsidios subieron rápidamente. El gran crecimiento de la economía en Argentina también respondió de la subida de los subsidios.
No solo los viajes en aviones están subsidiando, el sector transporte, sea por tierra o por aire, recibe gran subsidios también. Además los sectores de electricidad y gas son grandes destinatarios de la ayuda económica. Las grandes empresas privatizadas como servicio electricidad, gas y transporte reciben la mayoría de los subvenciones. En el primer medio de este año los subvenciones crecieron a 35,9 billones Pesos Argentinos que es el 62,2% mas que en el mismo tiempo un año pasado (www.mercopress.com). Se puede ver las efectos de los subsidios porque la gente no tiene sentido del valor de este servicio. Un ejemplo: cuando se caminando por la ciudad durante la noche se puede ver que muchas tiendas tienen la luz encendiendo y muy claro toda la noche. Creo que las personas están deslumbrado con los precios bajos y no tienen sentido del valor de esos servicios. Por los precios que solo pueden estar tan bajo con la financiación del gobierno, la gente desarrolla una mentalidad de la 'desperdicio'. Los gastos del presupuesto fueron
23 billones ARS en 2012 en total y 8,3 billones ARS fueron gastos de los subsidios
(www.cronista.com). Por los grandes subvenciones no solo los consumidores van a ser atolondrado también las empresas produciendo pierden su competencia y de esa manera también pierden su productividad. El gobierno que trata de estimular la economía no benéfica la economía de largo plazo. Las empresas no tienen que probar a buscar un ventaja enfrente la competencia. En general no hay una aspiración de encontrar un

avance, entonces las empresas van a ser mas dependiente de las subsidios cada día. En un mercado libre, sin intervención del gobierno y con competencia las empresas siempre tratan a ser la mas barata para preparar el servicio y eso se forza a ser la mas eficiente.
Pero eso no puede funcionar ahora porque los sectores no tienen el conocimiento para ser eficiente en las producción ni en la facilitación. Cuando el gobierno se va a cambiar hay un gran problema para buscar inversores nuevos en los sectores de la electricidad, gas y transporte.
Los altos costos, especialmente por los servicios de electricidad, resultan en un déficit fiscal mas alto que esta pagando con plata nueva imprimido. La inflación ya esta un 25% anual y con un crecimiento en el déficit la inflación va a quedar tan alto. La política economía de los subvenciones es un resulto de kirchnerismo. Nestor Kirchner empezó las programas de las subvenciones en 2003. Precios eran fijado y las producciones eran apoyando con la plata del

gobierno. Eso fuera la gran estrategia del kirchnerismo,

estimulo la economía con regalos en forma de plata. El PIB creció porque gasto publico y comercio crecieron. Pero la economía sufrió porque la inflación alto que era un resulto de los subsidios también. De largo plazo el déficit va a afectar la inflación mas y poco a poco
Argentina perderá la competitividad internacional. Un crecimiento en la economía en los años que vienen es imposible con ese sistema.
En general los subvenciones no van a las personas que realmente los necesitan.
Personas que están dependiente y no pueden vivir sin ayuda del gobierno y no pueden comprar electricidad o gas para cocinar sin las subvenciones. En lugar de eso, el acceso por el gas o la electricidad en los regiones más pobre no esta posible. Entonces, subsidios van a las personas común en primer lugar. Personas que tienen un trabajo, un salario y que puedan pagar los costos por las facturas de servicio. En el fin de 2011 era una medida del gobierno para reducir los gastos del subsidios. En noviembre 2011 el gobierno decidió que vaya a cortar los subvenciones de la electricidad, el gas y el agua. Eso afectó algunos sectores industriales y comerciales por ejemplo empresas de financiera y aseguradora, minería y petróleo, casinos, puertos y aeropuertos. Algunos sectores de la industria que necesita mucha energía siguieron en diciembre. Además las reducciones afectaron familias muy adinerado y también barrios de la prosperidad. Un otro ensayo era en 2012 con una página web en que personas honestos que no necesitan los subsidios de la electricidad pueden inscribirse para denegar los. Eso debió que ser una señal de la solidaridad. Ese denegación voluntario hicieron 12.000 Personas, menos que el gobierno esperaba. Para mi, no esperara nadie para hacerlo porque no hay muchas personas que deniegan regalos del gobierno en general pero los argentinos inteligentes saben que las

subvenciones son malos por la economía y por eso 12.000

de los 10 millones

beneficiarios decidieron que no reciban más. Esos medidas que solo afectaron grandes empresas y presupuestos ricos debió ahorrar US$140 millones. Por muchos financieros era una gota en el océano porque los costos del subsidios eran US$ 16 billones en total(www.iisd.org). En 2012 fueron algunas iniciativas más para cortar los subsidios por familias con ingreso muy alto. El gobierno quiso cambiar el sistema de subsidios no discriminativo en un sistema que solo personas reciben la plata que realmente la necesitan. Sin embargo el gobierno no fue tan estricto y no continuó su proyecto. Los cortos de esa sistema solo ahorró el 6% de los costos total y no resolvía el problema. El gobierno empezó a ir en la dirección para resolver el problema pero después algunos iniciativas se perdió de vista de su aspiración y continuó de subsidiar otra vez para deslumbrar la gente porque hay elecciones en octubre 2013. Con el fin de dar la gente plata para hacerla feliz. Eso es el populismo que es representativo del kirchnerismo.
Subvenciones representan un agobio alto fiscal y eran responsable de la reducción del presupuesto publico en los cinco años pasado. Un cambio para reducir los gastos de los subvenciones paso a paso solo es posible con una reformación completa de los precios de servicios. Se tiene que creer un sistema en que los productores y consumidores pueden actuar en un mercado libre sin ayuda y injerencias del gobierno. Un sistema en que el sector va a ser más atractivo por inversores para reducir las importaciones exteriores y para reducir el déficit en los importaciones que esta conectando con el problema. Hasta agosto 2013 argentina ya tiene un déficit en el comercio de energía de
US$5,4 billones (www.mercopress.com). Eso también es un efecto de las elecciones en octubre. El gobierno subsidio enorme para dejar una buena impresión en la cabeza de la gente. Para mí el gobierno de Argentina esta cavando un hueco muy grave y continua a ir más grave. Con los subsidios la gente esta deslumbrado y esta perdiendo el sentido de los valores de los productos. La gente esta o va a ser derrochador con los servicios de la electricidad, gas y transporte. Un sistema con subvenciones tan alto no puede funcionar ni ser lo mas efectivo. Sin embargo los subsidios están estimulando la economía pero no tan alto, el gobierno perdió su sentido. Ahora los subsidios solo van a ser contra-productivo para hacer la gente feliz y deslumbrar todos. Normalmente subvenciones en verdadero son para ayudar personas que no pueden pagar las factura del servicio y por eso no tienen electricidad o gas para cocinar. Pero con el sistema ahora la gente común recibe el mayor parte de los subvenciones. Argentina necesita un sistema restrictiva para filtrar la

gente y solo maneja la gente que lo necesitan. Ahora los subvenciones son arbitrario y causan mas malo que bien. El gasto publico grande y el consumo causan un crecimiento en el PIB que no es representativo de la economía argentina. Los subsidios causan una gran deuda en el presupuesto y son el suelo más grande. Eso déficit enorme aboca el gobierno a imprimir plata nueva para balancear el déficit y eso causa inflación que ya es el
25% anual. Para resolver grandes problemas en Argentina el gobierno tiene que empezar a cambiar su sistema de subsidios. Las elecciones 2013 pueden ser una oportunidad de cambiar, cuando la gente no esta deslumbrado de los subsidios y del populismo. El gobierno nuevo tiene que abandonar el sistema viejo y cambiar el sistema completamente para crear un mercado libre en los servicios de la electricidad, gas y transporte. Un mercado libre muchas veces es la solución de los problemas cuando un gobierno intervenía porque en un mercado con productores y consumidores. Después las elecciones que fueron en Octubre se va a ver que será la solución del gobierno nuevo. La política que hizo el gobierno los años desde 2001 y especialmente los cinco años pasados no puede continuar porque es lo peor por el país.

Lista de fuentes:
(1) http://www.cronista.com/economiapolitica/Cristina-aumento-el-gasto-para-subsidios-e-importarenergia-en--42.500-millones-20130821-0085.html
(2)http://en.mercopress.com/2013/08/05/argentine-economy-conditioned-by-energy-imports-andsubsidized-fuels-and-power
(3)http://www.iisd.org/gsi/news/argentina-cuts-energy-and-water-subsidies-businesses-and-highincome-neighborhoods
(4)http://en.mercopress.com/2013/09/24/argentine-trade-balance-collapsed-60-in-august-becauseof-the-energy-import-bill
(5)http://www.iisd.org/gsi/news/argentina-cuts-energy-and-water-subsidies-businesses-and-highincome-neighborhoods
(6)http://www.relooney.info/SI_FAO-LA-2012/Oxford-Argentina_8.pdf
(7)http://www.taringa.net/posts/noticias/12580050/Argentina-un-pais-adicto-al-subsidio.html
(8)http://www.economiaynegocios.cl/noticias/noticias.asp?id=112796
(9)http://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS
(10)http://www.nacion.com/archivo/Argentina-fuerte-aumento-subsidios_0_1344065776.html

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