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Analyse Finance

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M1 ECOLA – DM01 Marchés et Systèmes Financiers – Laurent Augier NOM : DI Xin / XI Wen

03/02/2014

ANALYSE DE L’EVOLUTION DES PRINCIPAUX POSTES DE BCE ET DE FED

Introduction Avec la croissance américaine, le recul du chômage et le calme de la zone euro sous l’ombre de la crise de la dette, on croyait que l’économie mondiale est entrée enfin dans la convalescence. L’impacte de la crise des subprimes s’est détendu et des mesures efficaces face à la crise de l’euro sont aussi mises en place, cependant, le bilan de BCE et celui de FED se trouvent dans différents niveaux d’expansion. La BCE s’adresse au refinancement à long terme et aux achats des créances, pourtant, la FED accentue l’augmentation des titres liquides à court terme et des créances. Dans ce travail, nous allons analyser l’évolution des principaux postes de BEC et de FED à partir de leur bilan depuis 2005, afin d’effectuer une comparaison sur leurs politiques monétaires pendant les crises.

Evolution des principaux postes de BCE

Comme nous pouvons observer dans la figure 1 et 21, en général, l’actif et le passif total de la BEC ont augmenté progressivement depuis 2005, il a obtenu au sommet en 2012 et retrouve à un niveau stable depuis 2013.

L’expansion remarquable de l’actif de 2009 à 2012 peut expliquée par la croissance élevée de l’INTRO et des achats des titres pendant la crise de l’euro. En plus des titres, le montant des avoirs et concours en or a aussi agrandi en 2012, cela correspond à l’escalade du prix de l’or en 2012, traduit par la baisse du taux d’intérêt et la dévalorisation du dollar depuis la crise financière. Comme le prix de l’or se présente comme son prix du marché dans le bilan, la BEC face au risque de perte en raison de la fluctuation du prix du marché de l’or. Ainsi, la BEC a augmenté sa réserve de l’or de plus d’un million euros à la fin de 20122. Néanmoins, l’oscillation du prix de l’or n’est pas la seule influencée par la crise, la BEC a inversé une grande somme de titres primaires dans le marché afin de satisfaire la somme grandissante des crédits. Cela est interprété par l’augmentation dramatique de 1389 milliards d’euro des créances et concours en euros au milieu de 2012. Suivi du financement central une politique de restriction, le montant des titres primaires est bien contrôlé en 2013 ainsi que la monnaie externe, qui compte de 54% en 2010 et 51% en 2013 dans la monnaie brute.

1 2

http://www.fairhedge.fr/indices/bilan-­‐de-­‐la-­‐bce/ http://www.ieforex.com/huishixinwen/yangxingdongtai/2012-­‐11-­‐21/143750.html#

Evolution des principaux postes de FED La structure du bilan de FED a eu un changement sensible à cause de l’éclatement de la crise des subprimes : selon la figure 3 3 , l’actif total du FED a connu une augmentation gigantesque de 869 milliards euros à 2000 milliards euros en août 2007. Également, la FED a mis en circulation environ 260 milliards euros de réserves des institutions financières à partir du septembre 2008 jusqu’à mars 2012. Au début de la crise, la FED s’est concentrée à maintenir la liquidité de la monnaie. En 2007, environ 300 milliards dollars de créances nationales étaient mises en circulation dans le marché pour que les institutions financières puissent s’en sortir de la crise. A la fin de 2008, de nouvelles politiques d’assouplissement quantitatif sont mises en oeuvre visées aux contraintes aggravantes de financement et au faiblesse du marché, suivies par la deuxième tour de financement des mesures supplémentaires en février 2010 avec un financement de 200 milliards dollars adressé à la manque de liquidité de la monnaie et à la fuite des réserves excédentaires. Selon la figure 3, ce financement est diminué graduellement à 5 milliards dollars jusqu’à juillet 2010 et reste stable depuis février 2011. La plupart des financements des entreprises sont réalisés des manières de TVA, CPFF et des lignes de swap de liquidité de la banque centrale. Ensuite, la FED a rassemblé des flux de monnaie en utilisant le reverse repo, cependant, les réserves excédentaires, les crédits inversés par la FED, des MBS achetés et les créances nationales se sont accrus simultanément. Toutefois, la monnaie en circulation s’est agrandie consécutivement, et les réserves ont réalisé une croissance considérable par rapport aux celles avant la crise. Ainsi, nous observons un ralentissement de l’expansion du bilan de FED depuis la fin de 2009, dont la structure reste aussi relativement stable.

Conclusion Après cette analyse détaillée de l’évolution des principaux postes de BCE et de FED à partir de leur bilan depuis 2005, nous pouvons tirer une conclusion que la mise en œuvre des politiques monétaires dans la zone euro rend plus difficile à cause de l’absence d’un système fiscal unifié. En revanche, la FED a bien évité l’inflation possible en raison de l’expansion de somme de la monnaie en vendant des créances nationales afin de maintenir le volume du bilan. Néanmoins, la BEC ne tient pas un tel genre de créance qui pourrait être vendue pour contrôler l’expansion de monnaie en circulation. Par conséquent, l’inflation s’est produite rapidement en Europe en 2009 en absence des mesures flexibles et efficaces de régularisation. En coopérant délicatement avec le Ministère du Finance et les institutions financières, la FED a effectué d’innombrables projets de financements. Cela pourrait aussi être une solution possible à réfléchir pour la BCE, qui tente de sortir la zone euro de l’incertitude.

3

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

Annexes : ACTIF du bilan BEC (milliards d'euros) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2005 2010 2012 aout-­‐13 sept-­‐13 oct-­‐13 autres actifs titres en euros creances et concours en euros creances en devises avoirs et creances en or total

PASSIF du bilan BEC (milliards d'euros) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2005 capital engagements en euros

2010

2012 aout-­‐13 sept-­‐13 oct-­‐13 billets en circulation engagements en devises total

Figure-­‐1

autre passifs

Figure-­‐2

Figure-­‐3

Figure-­‐4

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