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Analysis of Google's Stock

In:

Submitted By dinhton78
Words 2006
Pages 9
FINC 554 Investment Banking

Names:

Ali Geramian & Dinh Ton

Assignment:
Date :

Google, Inc.
February 11, 2013

Section (circle)

____30______31______32____

This assignment exclusively represents our own work. We have not discussed this case or this assignment with anyone and have done no outside research unless specifically authorized to do so. We have not discussed this work with any other students past or current nor have we reviewed any related work product prepared by such students. We have complied with the requirements of the Georgetown Honor System.

Signed__________________________________________________________________

1. Our review of the 4 analyst reports yields the following common themes: A) All reports are bullish on Google’s 2009 stock forecast; B) All use P/E ratio as part of their valuation method; and C) All EPS estimates, which exclude stock compensation, are in the range of $18.90 to $22.20. (Please refer to Exhibit 1 for more details). We will explore each report in more detail: Credit Suisse: Of the 4 reports, Credit Suisse achieves the most conservative price target at $400 per share based on a 5-year DCF analysis. Adverse macroeconomic factors are reflected in a comparatively high WACC of 13%. Terminal growth rate is responsibly estimated at 3%. Credit Suisse follows up with comparable P/E ratio analysis, which yields a price target of $339/share based on 17.9x ‘09 EPS of $18.9 and a 7.7x EV/EBITDA multiple. These estimates place a slight premium the industry averages of 16x P/E and 9x EV/EBITDA. Credit Suisse predicts a cautiously optimistic stock appreciation of 13% over current price of $353. Morgan Stanley: This report employs a 10-year DCF analysis to obtain a price target of $490 per share. Projected FCF growth is based on business-specific metrics such as paid click growth, acquisitions and other performance

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