...Second Order Moment Approach to Real Options Analysis Submitted as a Component of Required Courses for the Award of Bachelor of Engineering (Civil) Honours School of Civil Engineering University of New South Wales Author: Ariel Hersh October 2010 Supervisor: Professor David G. Carmichael i ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …………………………………………….............. Date …………………………………………….............. ii 1. ABSTRACT Real options analysis can be used by investors to determine the value of potential investments that offer an owner the right but not the obligation to exercise a strategic decision at a predetermined time and price. Tools which are popular for valuing financial ...
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...Operational Risk measurement This is defined as “the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. This includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputation risk”.9 Such risks are likely to be significant in Islamic Banks due to specific contractual features and the general legal environment. Specific aspects that could raise operational risks in Islamic banks include the following: (1) The cancellation risks in non binding murabahah and istisnah[’a contracts. (2) Problems in internal control systems to detect and manage potential problems in operational processes and back office functions. (3) Technical risks of various sorts. (4) The potential difficulties in enforcing Islamic Finance contracts in a broader legal environment, (5) The risk of non-compliance with Shariah requirements that may impact on permissible income, (6) The need to maintain and manage commodity inventories often in illiquid markets, and (7) The potential costs and risks in monitoring equity type contracts and the associated Legal risks. In addition, increasing use structured finance transactions – specifically, Securitization of loans originated by banks to manage risks on the asset side – could47 Expose banks to additional legal risks. The three methods of measuring operational risks proposed in Basel II would need considerable adaptations in Islamic Banks owing to the...
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...Relevant cash flows Answer: d Diff: E . Which of the following statements is most correct? a. The rate of depreciation will often affect operating cash flows, even though depreciation is not a cash expense. b. Corporations should fully account for sunk costs when making investment decisions. c. Corporations should fully account for opportunity costs when making investment decisions. d. Statements a and c are correct. e. All of the statements above are correct. Relevant cash flows Answer: c Diff: E . A company is considering a new project. The company’s CFO plans to calculate the project’s NPV by discounting the relevant cash flows (which include the initial up-front costs, the operating cash flows, and the terminal cash flows) at the company’s cost of capital (WACC). Which of the following factors should the CFO include when estimating the relevant cash flows? a. Any sunk costs associated with the project. b. Any interest expenses associated with the project. c. Any opportunity costs associated with the project. d. Statements b and c are correct. e. All of the statements above are correct. Relevant cash flows Answer: d Diff: E . When evaluating potential projects, which of the following factors should be incorporated as part of a project’s estimated cash flows? a. Any sunk costs that were incurred in the past prior to considering the proposed project. b. Any opportunity costs that are incurred if the project is undertaken. c. Any externalities...
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...confidence of investors. The equity risk premium is the "extra return" that investors collectively demand for investing their money in stocks instead of holding it in a risk less or close to risk less investment. As a consequence, equity risk premium reflects both investor hopes and fears about stocks, rising as the fear factor increases. As a measure the equity risk premium can be an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. And the size of the premium will be a standard to compensate with a higher premium in the stock market. Thus, a portfolio manager when the equity risk premium increases in the future， the investors will sell out stock market because the stocks are over priced. So the legislators and pension administrators decide how much to set aside to meet future pension obligations, based upon assessments of equity risk premiums. However the history data of ERP (Equity Risk Premium) from Federal Reserve System shows it keeps low and stable state but increases suddenly since 2006. At the same time the Federal Funds Effective Rate goes down and keeps low state. We know that interest rate is a way to control inflation. Inflation is a factor causes too much money chasing too few goods. “Changes in the federal funds rate affect the behavior of consumers and businesses, but the stock market is also affected,” Said by Jim Mueller (2013), PhD Finance in Washington State University. “As the risk-free rate goes up, the total return...
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...Formulae Final Examination Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis l Equity Valuation and Analysis l Corporate Finance l Economics Table of Contents 1. Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis 1.1 Generally Accepted Accounting Principles: Assets, Liabilities and 1 Shareholders’ Equities ......................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 1.2.1 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 Assets: Recognition, Valuation and Classification....................................... 1 Earning per Share ......................................................................................... 1 Profitability Analysis ..................................................................................... 2 Risk Analysis ................................................................................................ 5 Break-Even Analysis .................................................................................... 6 1.2 Financial Reporting and Financial Statement Analysis ...................................... 1 1.3 Analytical tools for Assessing Profitability and Risk......................................... 2 2. Equity Valuation and Analysis 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 7 2.1 Valuation Model of Common Stock .................................................................... 7 Dividend Discount Model............................................................................. 7 Free Cash Flow Model...
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...explain the relationship between 3-Month T-bill rate and Dow Jones Index Index 1. Introduction………………………………………………3 2. Modeling the relationship between the 3-Month T-bill rates and Dow Jones Index (First Model)……………………3 3. Hypothesis and Testing…………………………………...4 4. Empirical Analysis………………………………………...5 5. Further Comparison………………………………………5 6. Conclusion…………………………………………………7 7. Appendix……………………………………………………8 8. Reference…………………………………………………..10 1. Introduction The 3-month T-bill rates and Dow Jones index are really close to the whole economic environment; the 3-month T-Bill rates are the preeminent default-risk-free rates in the US money market that is often used by researchers to proxy the risk-free asset whose existence is assumed by much conventional finance theory. Given their importance and visibility, it is not surprising that these interest rates has been studied extensively in economic and finance. Dow Jones Index, undoubtedly, is one of the most important economic indicators of the global financial market, This paper investigates the relationship between these two important economic data. In order to cover the business circle, the data which I choose is from 2001/01/01-2010/12/31, including the subprime lending crisis period. I use SAS and excel to get the information which indicates the relationship between these two representing data. 2. Modeling the relationship between the 3-Month T-bill rates and Dow Jones Index (First Model) ...
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...Software Risk Management: Principles and Practices BARRY W. BOEHM, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency I) Identzhing and dealing with risks early in development lessens long-tem costs and helps prevent so@are disasters. It is easy t o begin managing risks in your environment. their early stages, the software field has had its share of project disasters: the software equivalents of the Beauvais Cathedral, the hWlS Titanic, and the “Galloping Gertie” Tacoma Narrows Bridge. The frequency of these software-project disasters is a serious concern: A recent survey of 600 firms indicated that 35 percent of them had at least one runaway software project.’ Most postmortems of these softwareproject disasters have indicated that their problems would have been avoided or strongly reduced if there had been an explicit early concern with identifylng and resolving their high-risk elements. Frequently, these projects were swept along by a tide of optimistic enthusiasm during their early phases that caused them to miss some clear signals of high-risk issues that proved to be their downfall later. Enthusiasm for new software capabilities is a good thing. But it must be tempered with a concern for early identification and resolution of a project’s high-risk elements so people can get these resolved early and then focus their enthusiasm and energy on the positive aspects of their product. Current approaches to the software process make it too easy for projects to make high-risk commitments...
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...------------------------------------------------- MAF707 Portfolio investments and Financial Planning ------------------------------------------------- Group Assignment Group 77: Weizhe Shi_900443906 Ran Li_210037023 Yichao FU_900387184 Contents Question 1 3 Analysis of securities and the market index 3 Summary 3 Question 2 7 Question 3 8 Question 4. 9 Standard Consumption of CAPM 9 Expectation errors relied on ex-post data 12 Reference List 14 Question 1 Analysis of securities and the market index Summary Firstly we calculated the monthly return of each securities which depend on the data of adjust close price every month. The formula is the latter month’s adjust close price minus the previous monthly adjust close price then divide the latter month’s adjust close price. On the basis of the results, we moved forward the steps that calculate the mean, median, skewnes, kurtosis, variance and correlation coefficients. Those data have been calculated and presented in excels. Definition and Formula 1. Mean The mean value is the average value of monthly return from Jun 2003 to Dec 2010. The formula is: μ=i=1NXiN where N is the number of the month we count of the return and Xi is the total value of the monthly return. 2. Median The median is the value of the middle item of a set of items that has been sorted into ascending or descending order. In an odd-numbered sample...
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...AT&T Stock Analysis Masters of Business Administration Keller Graduate School of Management, 2013 Spring Semester Keller Graduate School of Management Online Table of Contents 1.0 Face Page……………………………………………………………………………….1 2.0 Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………….2 3.0 Introduction………………………………………………………………………….….3 4.0 Company’s Background. ……………………………………………………………….4 5.0 Life Cycle Analysis……………………………………………………………………..4 6.0 An Analysis of Return on Equity……………………………………………………….5 7.0 Projected Future Growth Rate of Earnings……………………………………………..6 8.0 Analysis of Required Rate of Return –CAPM………………………………………….7 9.0 Intrinsic Value (DVT)…………………………………………………………………..8 10.0 Conclusion/Recommendation……………………………………………………..........8 11.0 References………………………………………………………………………………9 3.0 Introduction This literature review seeks to investigate and apply technical analysis measurements AT&T stock that trades on the New York Stock Exchange. With this data then the author will make a buy/sell recommendation. Understanding the importance of Stock analysis and its influence on AT & T Company failures or successes drives this study. AT &T is the leading communications company in the world by revenue. Also, they are the nation largest 4G networks, covering 275 million people. AT&T not only offers innovative smartphones, but AT&T U-verse TV and...
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... o yp t ec ot tive pr pec t s st n o em ti un xa idy ta ubs s c e l se w s po ket ies ar eg e m at g str ad y c s tr gin te er ra oli ver ersment n of emorpo m l p o rg ploy xatio ts ke e cl er ers n m lder p yme u ns keho plo a co n io t fla in g lin r e ng hao a ke c eed c a m fis t objectives t fr d men aims an ic environnment m econo enviro ment social nviron ange h legal e e em un ta of c causes ship leader g and proc hange g for c ess entin implem ing change s manag decision plannin rship exch st rates intere tives objecg markets in g emerg tion inflaange rates cto phic fa nemp subsid taxa hea u n envirot l M e ade s on na a n gi ra demog al dec politic ow ons er su n c C change i nfl subunemployateion men si m nt t re gula dy tio p an h envir social u lea ence ns d s fisc ersh al p i olic p y ge leade e cultur nt onme leg al inte stra rnal c teg au infl ic decisio ses enviro n missio tec al envir ecisio nt ra hno onm ns logi ent po cal or c strategi es influenc ent nm han ic envi gic lega ge a aim ron men l p l stra enviro roces t nm te soc tegic e s i d ic om on ec cy ure env ct iron e m bj lead iron en pla nni ersh ment t nd o tech...
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...VALUATION Outline Page Valuation overview 1 DCF valuation 7 47 Comparable transactions analysis 59 LBO analysis 68 Appendix VALUATI O N Comparable companies analysis 74 VAIDYA NATHAN 1 Overview “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get” VALUATI O N O V E R VI EW Value ! Price Do not confuse Price and Value. They are not the same If the Price paid is less than the Value derived, it’s a good investment VAIDYA NATHAN 2 Overview Why valuation is important? Divestitures Acquisitions How much should we pay to buy the company? How much should we sell our company/division for? Fairness opinions Research Is the price offered for our company/division fair (from a financial point of view)? Should our clients buy, sell or hold positions in a given security? Valuation Public equity offerings Hostile defense For how much should we sell our company/division in the public market? Is our company undervalued/vulnerable to a raider VALUATI O N O V E R VI EW Debt offerings New business presentations Various applications What is the underlying value of the business/assets against which debt is being issued? VAIDYA NATHAN 3 Overview The valuation process Determining a final valuation recommendation is a process of triangulation using insight from each of the relevant valuation methodologies (1) Discounted Cash Flow VALUATI O N ...
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...following statements is True (T) or False(F) (i) Financial statements are an important source of information to shareholders and stakeholders. (ii) Both the BS and the IS shows the financial position of fen at the end of the year. (ii) BS of a company must be prepared in the horizontal format only. (iv) Preparation of Profit & Loss Appropriation A/c is a requirement under the Companies Act, 1956. (v) Ratio Analysis is the only technique of analysis of financial statements. (vi) Methodical presentation of financial statements helps in Nation of various ratios. (vii) In Common Size Statements, each item is expressed as a percentage of some common items (total). (viii) Trend Percentage Analysis helps in Dynamic Analysis. (ix) Liquidity Ratios help in analysing the cash position of the firm. (x) In calculation of Acid Test Ratio, Inventory is included in current assets. (xi) Working Capital Turnover Ratio may be classified as an Activity Ratio. (xii) Debt-Equity Ratio is a measure of long-term solvency of a firm. (xiii) GP Ratio and NP Ratio give the profitability of the firm from the point of view of the shareholders. (xiv) Return on Equity and Earnings per Share are one and the same thing. (xv) DU PONT Analysis looks into the elements of profits. (xvi) Ratio Analysis provides the solution to the financial problems. Answers: (i) T, (ii) F, (iii) F, (iv) F, (v) F, (vi) T, (vii) T, (viii) T, (ix) F, (x) F, (xi) T, (xii) T, (xiii) F, (xiv) F, (xv) T, (xvi) F.] 2. Multiple...
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...Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) I. II. III. IV. V. VI. Readings and Suggested Practice Problems Introduction: from Assumptions to Implications The Market Portfolio Assumptions Underlying the CAPM Portfolio Choice in the CAPM World The Risk-Return Tradeoff for Individual Stocks VII. The CML and SML VIII. “Overpricing”/“Underpricing” and the SML IX. X. Uses of CAPM in Corporate Finance Additional Readings Equilibrium Process, Supply Equals Demand, Market Price of Risk, Cross-Section of Expected Returns, Risk Adjusted Expected Returns, Net Present Value and Cost of Equity Capital. Buzz Words: 1 Foundations of Finance: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) I. Readings and Suggested Practice Problems BKM, Chapter 9, Sections 2-4. Suggested Problems, Chapter 9: 2, 4, 5, 13, 14, 15 Web: Visit www.morningstar.com, select a fund (e.g., Vanguard 500 Index VFINX), click on Risk Measures, and in the Modern Portfolio Theory Statistics section, view the beta. II. Introduction: from Assumptions to Implications A. Economic Equilibrium 1. Equilibrium analysis (unlike index models) Assume economic behavior of individuals. Then, draw conclusions about overall market prices, quantities, returns. 2. The CAPM is based on equilibrium analysis Problems: – – There are many “dubious” assumptions. The main implication of the CAPM concerns expected returns, which can’t be observed directly. 2 Foundations of Finance: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) B. Implications...
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...[pic] BB&T BANK ANALYSIS REPORT FINA 280 FINANCIAL INSTITUTION MANAGEMENT & MODELING William C. Handorf, Ph.D. June 28, 2008 Washington, DC Content 1. INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………..…………………3 2. BB&T ……………………….……………………………………………………….4 3. US ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ……………………………………………………12 4. BB&T Bank …………...……………………………………………………………14 5. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………..41 6. Questions to Management………………………………………………………….42 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to analyze the financial operations and financial conditions of BB&T Bank by evaluating financial, economic and market information available for the period from 2000 to 2008. This paper attempts to address key strengths and weaknesses of the bank from a regulatory, financial, and credit market perspective. In order to make assessments and calculate required ratios, statistics and correlations, we mainly review the Uniform Bank Performance Report (UBPR) of the bank and publicly available financial data. Besides BB&T Bank the paper also attempts to analyze the performance of the holding company, BB&T Corporation (NYSE: BBT). Section 2 briefly overviews the holding company - BBT - and its financial analysis. Section 3 provides an overview of the US economy as a backdrop to the financial performance of the bank. Section 4 uses the CAMELS methodology (Capital, Asset Quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity) to identify the key strengths and weaknesses...
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...Credit Risk Modeling by Aijun Zhang A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Statistics) in The University of Michigan 2009 Doctoral Committee: Professor Vijayan N. Nair, Co-Chair Agus Sudjianto, Co-Chair, Bank of America Professor Tailen Hsing Associate Professor Jionghua Jin Associate Professor Ji Zhu c Aijun Zhang 2009 All Rights Reserved To my elementary school, high school and university teachers ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would express my gratitude to my advisor Prof. Vijay Nair for guiding me during the entire PhD research. I appreciate his inspiration, encouragement and protection through these valuable years at the University of Michigan. I am thankful to Julian Faraway for his encouragement during the first years of my PhD journey. I would also like to thank Ji Zhu, Judy Jin and Tailen Hsing for serving on my doctoral committee and helpful discussions on this thesis and other research works. I am grateful to Dr. Agus Sudjianto, my co-advisor from Bank of America, for giving me the opportunity to work with him during the summers of 2006 and 2007 and for offering me a full-time position. I appreciate his guidance, active support and his many illuminating ideas. I would also like to thank Tony Nobili, Mike Bonn, Ruilong He, Shelly Ennis, Xuejun Zhou, Arun Pinto, and others I first met in 2006 at the Bank. They all persuaded me to jump into the area of credit risk research;...
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