Analysis of an argument

1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry, leads to the author’s rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.

First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.

Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.

As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author’s view.

2. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company.
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The argument for Apogee Company to return to a past business model is based around anecdotal evidence and a number of unfounded assumption. These unsubstantiated assumptions and flaws in reasoning leave the argument less persuasive and weak.

Firstly, the argument assumes the customer base of the company is serviced as well as it is now. However, without locations in-market, the company may be gambling that it's competitors may be able to provide product faster and easier to customers. If Apogee can not ensure equivalent service, its competitors market share will improve.

Secondly, the statement assumes that the past business model was the reason for Apogee Company's success. However, a number of other factors may be hindering it's success today: competition, a saturated marketplace, weak customer loyalty, and cost of material are all equally as plausible.

Furthermore, the comment that the company can maintain better supervision of it's employees proves that there are bigger issues than a decrease in profitability. The supervision of its field offices should be the responsibility of management structure. If there is a failure in communication, management must deal with that first.

The solution of returning to a single location business model for Apogee Company requires a much deeper inspection of the current economic climate than detailed in the statement. Only after that inspection should Apogee Company make the transition.[pic]

3.The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city’s council on the arts.
“In a recent citywide poll, fifteen percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago. During these past five years, the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has increased by a similar percentage. Since the corporate funding that supports public television, where most of the visual arts programs appear, is now being threatened with severe cuts, we can expect that attendance at our city’s art museums will also start to decrease. Thus some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The author concludes that the city should allocate some of its arts funding to the public television in order for the attendance at the city art museums not to further decrease. The argument is based on the two assumptions: 1) the number of audience of art programs on public television is appropriate to that of local art museums, and 2) the public television faced of severe funding cuts. While this argument is somewhat convincing, it is not sound because its line of reasoning is not compelling.

First of all, the author commits the “Confused Cause and Effect” fallacy. The argument depends on the assumption that increased exposure to the visual arts on public television has caused a similar increase in local art-museum attendance in the past years. However, the poll that increased art-museum attendance is statistically correlated with similar increases in television viewing of visual-arts programs, does not necessarily mean that the increased television viewing of arts is the cause of the rise in museum attendance. There may be other factors relevant to increased interest in the local art museum during the past years. For example, some larger social or cultural factors may cause greater public interest in municipal art museums.

Second, the argument does not address the effectiveness of citywide poll conducted five years ago. The survey may be biased. If the respondents do not properly represent the whole residents, then the poll is not convincing. Moreover, since the survey was conducted five years ago, the statistics can become invalid and can no longer be used as future prediction.

In conclusion, the argument is not convincing enough and would be strengthened if the author were to eliminate other significant factors that might have caused the increase in visits to the local art museum, as well as to address the soundness o the survey conducted five years ago.

4. The following appeared in a report presented for discussion at a meeting of the directors of a company that manufactures parts for heavy machinery.

“The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in manufacturing. These delays, in turn, are due in large part to poor planning in purchasing metals. Consider further that the manager of the department that handles purchasing of raw materials has an excellent background in general business, psychology, and sociology, but knows little about the properties of metals. The company should, therefore, move the purchasing manager to the sales department and bring in a scientist from the research division to be manager of the purchasing department.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The author argued that the company should replace the current manager with a scientist from the research division as the manager of the purchasing department as a result of falling revenues. The argument is based on the two facts: 1) The company revenues fall at the same as do delays in manufacturing; and 2) The current manager who is responsible for purchasing of raw materials knows little about the properties of metals. The line of reasoning is not sound and, therefore the conclusion is not compelling.

Firstly, the argument failed to address the casual relationship between falling revenues and delays in manufacturing. The fact that the falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in manufacturing does not mean one causes another. It may be other reasons that cause the company to experience the falling revenues. For example, the quality of products does not satisfy its customers, and as a result, many previous clients are turning to its competitors.

Furthermore, it is not reasonable to conclude that a scientist can save the poor planning in purchasing metals. If the scientist is skilled in the properties of metals but poor at planning, the delays in manufacturing may be worse. The purchasing manager must know where he could find those kinds of metals, what prices they are, and when they can be transported to his company. In fact, a department manager in business background is really acceptable. Because when he bumps against a technical problem, he can easily seek advice from the engineer team in manufacturing department.

In conclusion, the delays in manufacturing were not necessarily caused by the purchasing manager's poor knowledge about the properties of metals. Maybe the company must replace the purchasing manager; however, a scientist may also not be competent for this job. It must find someone who really knows how to plan and how to buy qualified metals in time.

5. The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The Mercury, a weekly newspaper.
“Since a competing lower-priced newspaper, The Bugle, was started five years ago, The Mercury’s circulation has declined by 10,000 readers. The best way to get more people to read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of The Bugle, at least until circulation increases to former levels. The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract more businesses to buy advertising space in the paper.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

A newspaper publisher is recommending that the price of its paper, The Mercury, be reduced below the price of a competing newspaper, The Bugle. This recommendation responds to a severe decline in circulation of The Mercury during the 5-year period following the introduction of The Bugle. The publisher’s line of reasoning is that lowering the price of The Mercury will increase its readership, thereby increasing profits because a wider readership attracts more advertisers. This line of reasoning is problematic in two critical respects.

While it is clear that increased circulation would make the paper more attractive to potential advertisers, it is not obvious that lowering the subscription price is the most effective way to gain new readers. The publisher assumes that price is the only factor that caused the decline in readership. But no evidence is given to support this claim. Moreover, given that The Mercury was the established local paper, it is unlikely that such a mass exodus of its readers would be explained by subscription price alone.

There are many other factors that might account for a decline in The Mercury’s popularity. For instance, readers might be displeased with the extent and accuracy of its news reporting, or the balance of local to other news coverage. Moreover, it is possible that The Mercury has recently changed editors, giving the paper a locally unpopular political perspective. Or perhaps readers are unhappy with the paper’s format, the timeliness of its feature articles, its comics or advice columns, the extent and accuracy of its local event calendar, or its rate of errors.

In conclusion, this argument is weak because it depends on an oversimplified assumption about the causal connection between the price of the paper and its popularity. To strengthen the argument, the author must identify and explore relevant factors beyond cost before concluding that lowering subscription prices will increase circulation and, thereby, increase advertising revenues.

6. The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.

“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

In this article, corporations are encouraged to settle their business in the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. The recommendation is based on the fact that Helios is the industrial center of the region, given that the city provided more than its share of manufacturing jobs and its unemployment rate is lower than average. Furthermore, the city is taking efforts to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is somewhat persuasive but not convincing for the following two reasons.

First, lower-than-average unemployment rate seems attractive to job applicants, but actually not good for corporations. Because of the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, companies that should recruit large numbers of employees would not find Helios a great place. Lower unemployment rate means that the incoming corporations will have to recruit new workers outside the city of Helios or lure the existing workers away from their current jobs with higher wages. Both of these two alternatives will result in higher recruiting costs, and therefore make Helios a BAD place for business.

Second, it is questionable whether the available labor in Helios could support all types of business. Even though the city of Helios has great environment for industrial and manufacturing companies, it is likely that the local prospective employees are not suitable for other types of corporations, such as financial service companies. Furthermore, the city’s attempt to attract companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies does not necessarily result in the expanding economic base as it expect.

In sum, the author did not provide compelling reasons for why Helios is a great site for a company wishing to relocate. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios. If the author had included the above items, it may be more convincing.

7. The following appeared in the health section of a magazine on trends and lifestyles.

“People who use the artificial sweetener aspartame are better off consuming sugar, since aspartame can actually contribute to weight gain rather than weight loss. For example, high levels of aspartame have been shown to trigger a craving for food by depleting the brain of a chemical that registers satiety, or the sense of being full. Furthermore, studies suggest that sugars, if consumed after at least 45 minutes of continuous exercise, actually enhance the body’s ability to burn fat. Consequently, those who drink aspartame-sweetened juices after exercise will also lose this calorie-burning benefit. Thus it appears that people consuming aspartame rather than sugar are unlikely to achieve their dietary goals.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The article concludes that it is better to use sugar than the artificial sweetener aspartame for those people who want to lost weight. The author uses two reasons to support his viewpoints. First, high levels aspartame will cause people to eat more. Second, sugar can help fat-burning if used properly. These reasons can only tell reader that aspartame has some bad side-effect while sugar has some good effect, but they can't prove that sugar is better than aspartame for weight-control. Therefore, the reasoning is less than sufficient and the argument is not convincing.

In the first reason, author fails to define what the level of amount is “high”. The normal dose of aspartame that people consuming may be very low. If most people use artificial sweetener that contains lower level of aspartame than the one that will trigger a craving for food, then the advantage of consuming sugar no long exists. Moreover, the author didn't mention whether sugar will also contain that chemical. If it is the case, people should turn to the third product.

The second reason is also not sound, because it requires people not to drink until 45 minutes after exercise. This procedure is difficult to follow because most people drink juices immediately after or during excise. If they have to wait for 45 minutes, they may not need drink any longer. Also, the author didn't mention whether the calorie that sugar itself generates is less than the amount it helps to burn. Finally, the article fails to address whether the aspartame's side-effect, if any, is bigger than sugar’s.

In conclusion, the argument is nor sound or convincing. However, if it had included the above mentioned items, it would be more compelling.

Analysis of an issue

1. In some countries, television and radio programs are carefully censored for offensive language and behavior. In other countries, there is little or no censorship.
In your view, to what extent should government or any other group be able to censor television or radio programs? Explain, giving relevant reasons and/or examples to support your position.

The extent to which the broadcast media should be censored for offensive language and behavior involves a conflict between our right of free speech and the duty of the government to protect its citizenry from potential harm. In my view, our societal interest in preventing the harm that exposure to obscenity produces takes precedence over the rights of individuals to broadcast this type of content.

First of all, I believe that exposure to obscene and offensive language and behavior does indeed cause similar behavior on the part of those who are exposed to it. Although we may not have conclusive scientific evidence of a cause-effect relationship, ample anecdotal evidence establishes a significant correlation. Moreover, both common sense and our experiences with children inform us that people tend to mimic the language and behavior they are exposed to.

Secondly, I am convinced that obscene and offensive behavior is indeed harmful to a society. The harm it produces is, in my view, both palpable and profound. For the individual, it has a debasing impact on vital human relationships; for the society, it promotes a tendency toward immoral and antisocial behavior. Both outcomes, in turn, tear apart the social fabric that holds a society together.

Those who advocate unbridled individual expression might point out that the right of free speech is intrinsic to a democracy and necessary to its survival. Even so, this right is not absolute, nor is it the most critical element. In my assessment, the interests served by restricting obscenity in broadcast media are, on balance, more crucial to the survival of a society. Advocates of free expression might also point out difficulties in defining “obscene” or “offensive” language or behavior. But in my view, however difficult it may be to agree on standards, the effort is worthwhile.

In sum, it is in our best interest as a society for the government to censor broadcast media for obscene and offensive language and behavior. Exposure to such media content tends to harm society and its citizenry in ways that are worth preventing, even in light of the resulting infringement of our right of free expression.

2. “Corporations and other businesses should try to eliminate the many ranks and salary grades that classify employees according to their experience and expertise. A ‘flat’ organizational structure is more likely to encourage collegiality and cooperation among employees.”
Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the opinion stated above. Support your views with reasons and/or examples from your own experience, observations, or reading.

Which is a better way to classify and reward employees of a business: a “flat” organizational structure or a hierarchical structure? The speaker prefers a “flat” structure in which distinctions between employees based on education or experience are not used as a basis for monetary rewards. I strongly disagree with the speaker’s view for two reasons.

In the first place, the speaker’s preference for a “flat” structure is based upon the claim that cooperation and collegiality among employees are more likely under this system than under a hierarchical one. However, this claim ignores our everyday experience in human interaction. Disagreements among coworkers are inevitable. Without a clear authoritative figure to resolve them and to make final decisions, disputes are more likely to go unresolved and even worsen, thereby undermining cooperation, congeniality and, ultimately, productivity and profit.

In the second place, whether or not collegiality and cooperation are best fostered by a flat organizational structure is beside the point. My main reason for rejecting an organizational structure that does not distinguish workers in terms of their abilities or experience is that under such a system workers have little incentive to improve their skills, accomplish their work-related goals, or assume responsibility for the completion of their assigned tasks. In my experience, human motivation is such that without enticements such as money, status or recognition, few people would accomplish anything of value or assume responsibility for any task. A flat system actually might provide a distinct disincentive for productivity and efficiency insofar as workers are not held accountable for the quality or quantity of their work. By ignoring human nature, then, a company may be harming itself by encouraging laziness and complacency.

In sum, the speaker’s opinion that a “flat” organizational structure is the best way to promote collegiality and cooperation among employees runs counter to the principles of how people act in a work environment and provides a feeble rationale for the preference of one organizational structure over another.

3. “It is unrealistic to expect individual nations to make, independently, the sacrifices necessary to conserve energy. International leadership and worldwide cooperation are essential if we expect to protect the world’s energy resources for future generations.”
Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the opinion stated above. Support your views with reasons and/or examples from your own experience, observations, or reading.

Energy conservatoin is very important because many people believe in Global warming.

In conclusion, while there are arguments to be made for both sides, it is clear that there are greater advantages to have unity which means worldwide cooperation to conserve the natural resources of the world and expect our future generations to live happily.

4.“All groups and organizations should function as teams in which everyone makes decisions and shares responsibilities and duties. Giving one person central authority and responsibility for a project or task is not an effective way to get work done.”

I personally believe that the concept of teamwork is extremly important to the success of any project.Whether in the workplace or on the football field, or even amongst members of a community, effective teamwork can produce incredible results

Working in teams is more fun than working individually, which can help to improve our performance.

There is a saying that every team is a group, but not every group is a team

The importance of teamwork is that it allows people to accomplish more than they could by ourselves. It allows us to move mountains.