Every living human being regardless of age, race or location is unpredictably vulnerable to various types, factions and fractions of creeping, slow-burn and sudden physical and non-physical crises. Crises are caused by many factors and the consequences are independent of any socio-geographical variables. A crisis is a crucial or decisive point or situation; an unstable condition as in political, social or economic affairs involving an impending abrupt or decisive change; a sudden change in the cause of a disease or fever toward either improvement or deterioration; an emotionally stressful event or traumatic change in a person’s life; a point in a story or drama when a conflict reaches its highest tension and must be resolved.

Crises generally are about victims, perceived victims or people who are affected by what happened. When we are not sufficiently educated or informed about the new trends and best practices in Crisisology, there is predisposition that:

1. Faced with a crisis, we feel frightened, confused, angry and helpless; 2. Judgment may be affected, sometimes creating a tendency to consider ideas that would normally be dismissed; 3. Individual’s personality trait becomes exaggerated (for example, an anxious person becomes very anxious); 4. A siege mentality sets in with those in charge withdrawing, doing nothing, saying nothing and becoming inert; 5. The search begins for a scapegoat; 6. Instability sets in and decision makers may not adopt the latest opinions they have heard; and 7. Government or management turns defensive, declaring in reflex “everything is under control”. 8. A crisis presents real or potential negative outcomes for victims. A victim is anyone who is harmed by another; an aggrieved or disadvantaged party in a crime (e.g. swindle); a person who suffers any other injury, loss or damage as a result of a voluntary undertaking; an unfortunate person who suffers from a disaster or other adverse circumstance.

Charles Perrow, in his legendary book – The Normal Accident: Living with High Risk Technology (1984), captured the various dimensions of victimization as relates to industrial disruptions as thus:

* First-party victims are the operators of the system; Perrow defines this group broadly to include those with explicit control responsibility as well as other workers who are on-site. Most industrial accidents involve one operator, who is usually blamed for the accident. Operators are routinely subjected to "production pressures": it may not be possible (or the operator may not believe it is possible) to both follow all safety regulations and produce enough for the operator to keep his or her job;

* Second-party victims are the non-operating personnel or system users such as the passengers on a ship, or the truck driver delivering materials to the chemical plant. This category includes the users of the system and those workers who exercise no control of its operation. In general there is some level of voluntary participation in the risks of the system, although unemployed people may accept a job without feeling the freedom to refuse;

* Third-party victims are innocent bystanders, such as people on the ground where an airliner crashes. Airports and nuclear power plants are located fairly close to all major metropolitan regions; and

* Fourth-party victims are fetuses and future generations. The mechanism in these cases is usually toxic chemicals or radiation. Perrow excludes "run-of-the-mill pollution," because accidents and incidents are at issue, not normal operating releases. This class of victims is particularly troublesome because they receive no benefit from the risky activities, but do bear a large part of the burden.

Victims have a special mentality and their perception and behavior is altered in ways that are fundamentally predictable. The perpetrator needs to recognize victim expectations and respond affirmatively when your actions or inactions create voluntary or involuntary adverse circumstances for people. Victims need assistance; expression of regret; information and recognition; validation about their suffering; and information about actions taken to remedy their circumstances by the pepertrators or those in charge of authority. Otherwise, there will be very negative consequences or the desire for hitting back, seeking or attempting to implement their own solutions.

Crisisology is conceptualized to ward off or reduce the threats of crises by updating our knowledge, skills and aptitude through training to instill the conscience necessary to make split second decision that consistently ensures the safety of every party in any dramatic situation. Hence, today’s operating environment demands that we should be prepared to develop a crisis mentality that recognises that: a crisis can happen any time; and that risk must be factored into our daily operational configurations with preventive instincts in the vast ocean of direct or indirect interactions with workers, contractors, public officers, traders, artisan, beggars, criminals, hoodlums, assassins, kidnappers, terrorists and other treasure seekers flying, driving, cycling, walking, living everywhere and anyway!

Crisisology is focused on disruptive circumstances with probability for pain, injuries, illnesses, disabilities, deaths, property damages, psycho-social trauma and other undesirable situations with the potentials for losses, shortages, liabilities or expenses. “It balances the equation of the harsh environment in which we live and work by offering innovative ways of managing problems, issues and crises in our personal, organisational and communal lives”.

Achieving an effective level of crisis detection, prevention and management requires a thorough knowledge, understanding and managerial skills in disruptive circumstances. These are the core credentials of a Crisisologist – someone who studies, teaches and practices Crisisology. They are many functions performed by a Crisisologist which includes:

One, a Crisisologist focuses on matters of safety, security, conflict, emergency, disaster and crisis prevention and management through best practices, ideas, strategies, questions and answers available to every group and interest without regards to ethnic, religious or political affiliations.

Two, a Crisisologist is dedicated to providing the expertise and solutions to help people improve and maintain peace and stability through his understanding of the causes, nature and the universal characteristics, dynamics, dimensions and disruptive capacity of crises such as:

* The event is sudden, unexpected and unwanted; * Decisions must be made swiftly; * It is a low-probability, high impact event; * It has ambiguity of cause, effect and means of resolution; * It interrupts the normal operations of an organisation; * It hinders high priority goals and threatens an enterprise’s profitability; * It may cause irreparableness and degeneration of situation if no action is taken; * It creates significant psychological stress.

Three, a Crisisologist understands the roles of crisis detection, prevention and management in personal, inter-personal, organisational and communal matters. And reaches out to government at all levels, media, corporate bodies, students and communities to prevent the colossal waste of human lives and properties through education, sensitization and conscientisation on the immediate, short and long term effects of crises.

Four, a Crisisologist engages in vulnerability assessment; discouraging conducts that creates fear and anxiety; issues management; humanitarian assistance; building an environment of trust and reforming personal, organisational and societal mindsets towards crisis prevention.

Five, a Crisisologist assimilates and synthesises many kinds of information and able to work with a wide variety of individuals and groups both inside and outside the organisation. He can take a short term and long term time perspective on various issues and events.

A case can also be made that the morality and trust that hold organisations, communities and nations together are eroding; this is evident in the growth of deception and misconduct in business, government and social institutions. The antidote to these situations reflects the essence of Crisisology. Therefore, this monograph’s “overriding purpose is to inspire all the stakeholders in education and prospective Crisisologists to enlarge their perspective and response repertoires by supplementing their existing practices with strategies that help them understands” the new trends in crisis detection, prevention and management.

Muhammad Sani Isa is the President of the Society for Safety and Crisis Management, an Associate Editor of the Management Journal of Crisisology Today (MJCT) and the Secretary of International Association of Crisisologists (IAC). sscm.ng@gmail.com --------------------------------------------
[ 1 ]. www.thefreedictionary.com
[ 2 ]. Op.cit
[ 3 ]. Op.cit
[ 4 ]. Op.cit
[ 5 ]. www.e911.com
[ 6 ]. Ibid
[ 7 ]. Ibid
[ 8 ]. www.crisisology.com