...Behavioural Finance Martin Sewell University of Cambridge February 2007 (revised April 2010) Abstract An introduction to behavioural finance, including a review of the major works and a summary of important heuristics. 1 Introduction Behavioural finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behaviour of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. Behavioural finance is of interest because it helps explain why and how markets might be inefficient. For more information on behavioural finance, see Sewell (2001). 2 History Back in 1896, Gustave le Bon wrote The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, one of the greatest and most influential books of social psychology ever written (le Bon 1896). Selden (1912) wrote Psychology of the Stock Market. He based the book ‘upon the belief that the movements of prices on the exchanges are dependent to a very considerable degree on the mental attitude of the investing and trading public’. In 1956 the US psychologist Leon Festinger introduced a new concept in social psychology: the theory of cognitive dissonance (Festinger, Riecken and Schachter 1956). When two simultaneously held cognitions are inconsistent, this will produce a state of cognitive dissonance. Because the experience of dissonance is unpleasant, the person will strive to reduce it by changing their beliefs. Pratt (1964) considers utility functions, risk aversion and also risks considered as a proportion of total assets...
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...Behavioural Finance Martin Sewell University of Cambridge February 2007 (revised April 2010) Abstract An introduction to behavioural finance, including a review of the major works and a summary of important heuristics. 1 Introduction Behavioural finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behaviour of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. Behavioural finance is of interest because it helps explain why and how markets might be inefficient. For more information on behavioural finance, see Sewell (2001). 2 History Back in 1896, Gustave le Bon wrote The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, one of the greatest and most influential books of social psychology ever written (le Bon 1896). Selden (1912) wrote Psychology of the Stock Market. He based the book ‘upon the belief that the movements of prices on the exchanges are dependent to a very considerable degree on the mental attitude of the investing and trading public’. In 1956 the US psychologist Leon Festinger introduced a new concept in social psychology: the theory of cognitive dissonance (Festinger, Riecken and Schachter 1956). When two simultaneously held cognitions are inconsistent, this will produce a state of cognitive dissonance. Because the experience of dissonance is unpleasant, the person will strive to reduce it by changing their beliefs. Pratt (1964) considers utility functions, risk aversion and also risks considered as a proportion of total assets. Tversky and Kahneman...
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...Markets and Information Market Efficiency Overview So far we have considered a number of asset pricing models These have all required that price is a good reflection of value Is this likely to be the case? How? Why? Week 5 FINS5513 2 Today Trend and predictability Efficient market hypothesis Implications Supporting evidence Behavioural biases Barriers to the EMH Anomalies Can we build a fully efficient market? Week 5 FINS5513 3 Market Efficiency Efficiency in engineering: the best possible use of the inputs. An efficient market: investors make the best possible use of information. A useful initial perspective: As speculators we are trying to predict where a stock price will be in the future. Do we know anything today that will help us make this prediction? Week 5 FINS5513 4 Price of GE 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 0 Week 5 20 40 FINS5513 60 80 100 5 Are Prices Predictable? There are apparently short-run trends If we know we are at the start of a downward trend, sell short If we know we are at the start of an upward trend, buy How do you know when a trend is starting? ending? Can we devise rules (statistical or “technical”)? Week 5 FINS5513 6 Trend and Predictability The price path is simulated: Price(Today) = Price(Yesterday) + x, where x is a standard normal random variable This process...
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...SHRI RAM COLLEGE OF COMMERCE A STUDY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR Project work Paper No. – CH 6.3 (b) (Submitted for Partial Fulfillment Towards Requirement of B.COM (HONS.) Course) Ashvi Mittal 12BC136 12072204129 E-21 2014-15 UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF Miss Ankita Tomar Assistant Professor Department of Commerce Shri Ram College of Commerce University of Delhi 1 DECLARATION BY STUDENT This is to certify that the material embodied in this study entitled “A STUDY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR” is based on my own research work and my indebtedness to other work/publications has been acknowledged at the relevant places. This study has not been submitted elsewhere either wholly or in part for award of any degree. Ashvi Mittal B.Com(H) Section-E 12BC136 2 DECLARATION BY TEACHER INCHARGE This is to certify that the project titled “A STUDY ON FACTORS INFLUENCING INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR” done by Ashvi Mittal is a part of her academic curriculum for the degree of B.Com(H). It has no commercial implication and is done only for academic purpose. Mrs Aruna Jha Miss Ankita Tomar (Teacher in- charge’s name and signature) signature) 3 (Mentor’s name and Signature) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I feel great pleasure in expressing my gratitude to my mentor Miss Ankita Tomar of Commerce Department, Shri Ram College of...
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...European Financial Management, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2007, 12–29 doi: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2007.00415.x Behavioural Finance: A Review and Synthesis Avanidhar Subrahmanyam Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California at Los Angeles, USA E-mail: subra@anderson.ucla.edu Abstract I provide a synthesis of the Behavioural finance literature over the past two decades. I review the literature in three parts, namely, (i) empirical and theoretical analyses of patterns in the cross-section of average stock returns, (ii) studies on trading activity, and (iii) research in corporate finance. Behavioural finance is an exciting new field because it presents a number of normative implications for both individual investors and CEOs. The papers reviewed here allow us to learn more about these specific implications. Keywords: behavioural finance, market efficiency, cross-section of stock returns JEL classifications: G00, G10, G11, G14, G31, G32, G34 1. Introduction The field of finance, until recently, had the following central paradigms: (i) portfolio allocation based on expected return and risk (ii) risk-based asset pricing models such as the CAPM and other similar frameworks, (iii) the pricing of contingent claims, and (iv) the Miller-Modigliani theorem and its augmentation by the theory of agency. These economic ideas were all derived from investor rationality. While these approaches revolutionised the study of finance and brought rigour into the field, many lacunae...
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...EMH states that no consistent excess return can be achieved since security prices fully reflect all available information (Fama 1970). Therefore, future prices cannot be predicted through technical analysis of past prices. If the hypothesis is true, passive investment strategy ought to be taken, because it is impossible to get abnormal return by aggressive trading. However, Jegadeesh and Titman show that stocks performed well over the previous 3 to 12 months tend to continue to perform well over 3 to 12 months holding periods. Buy past winners and short past losers earned statistically significant positive return of averaging 12.01% per year. Predictable price patterns and excess returns contradict the efficient market hypothesis. Investors and fund managers perform actively in pursuing abnormal profits. Literature review and the reason of anomaly A large number of literatures illustrate that momentum anomaly exist. Some important literatures are Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (1996), Conrad and Kaul (1998) and Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999). Lee and Swaminathan (2000) find high past turnover stocks exhibit larger magnitude of momentum but shorter persistence of momentum. Grundy and Martin (2001) study of the US market 1926 – 1995 found that after adjusting for dynamic risks, there are stable momentum profits. However, Carhart (1997), Brooks and Miffre (2007) believe if take transaction costs into account, there will be no persistence...
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...EMH states that no consistent excess return can be achieved since security prices fully reflect all available information (Fama 1970). Therefore, future prices cannot be predicted through technical analysis of past prices. If the hypothesis is true, passive investment strategy ought to be taken, because it is impossible to get abnormal return by aggressive trading. However, Jegadeesh and Titman show that stocks performed well over the previous 3 to 12 months tend to continue to perform well over 3 to 12 months holding periods. Buy past winners and short past losers earned statistically significant positive return of averaging 12.01% per year. Predictable price patterns and excess returns contradict the efficient market hypothesis. Investors and fund managers perform actively in pursuing abnormal profits. Literature review and the reason of anomaly A large number of literatures illustrate that momentum anomaly exist. Some important literatures are Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (1996), Conrad and Kaul (1998) and Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999). Lee and Swaminathan (2000) find high past turnover stocks exhibit larger magnitude of momentum but shorter persistence of momentum. Grundy and Martin (2001) study of the US market 1926 – 1995 found that after adjusting for dynamic risks, there are stable momentum profits. However, Carhart (1997), Brooks and Miffre (2007) believe if take transaction costs into account, there will be no...
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...CHAPTER 9 Behavioural Finance and the Psychology of Investing “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” —Benjamin Graham “There are three factors that influence the market: Fear, Greed, and Greed.” —Market folklore Be honest: Do you think of yourself as a better than average driver? If you do, you are not alone. About 80 percent of the people who are asked this question will say yes. Evidently, we tend to overestimate our abilities behind the wheel. Is the same thing true when it comes to making investment decisions? You will probably not be surprised when we say that human beings sometimes make errors in judgment. How these errors, and other aspects of human behaviour, affect investors and asset prices falls under the general heading of “behavioural finance.” In the first part of this chapter, our goal is to acquaint you with some common types of mistakes investors make and their financial implications. As you will see, researchers have identified a wide variety of potentially damaging behaviours. In the second part of the chapter, we describe a trading strategy known as “technical analysis.” Some investors use technical analysis as a tool to try to exploit patterns in prices. These patterns are thought to exist (by advocates of technical analysis) because of predictable behaviour by investors. Chapter 9 Behavioural Finance and the Psychology of Investing 273 9.1 Introduction to Behavioural Finance Sooner...
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...suggests that it is impossible to “beat the market” because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. Thus, according to the EMH, it is impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices because stocks are always traded at their fair value on stock exchanges. Another reason is because no one has access to information that is not already available to everyone else. One important characteristic of the EMH is its assumption that agents are rational. Rational agents is agents which has a clear preferences, models uncertainty via expected values, and always chooses to perform the action that results in the optimal outcome from all the feasible actions. Their actions depend on their preferences, their information of the current situation; which may come from past experiences, the actions, duties and obligations available and the estimated or actual benefits that the agents can get after the actions. In reality, however, agents are not always rational; people’s decision does not always correspond to the concept of economic rationality. Most people, in fact, make their decision rather intuitively. This leads to an interesting new study of behavioural finance, a study that linked psychology with finance. It provides explanations to well-known market anomalies such as: the small firms outperform; in which the case...
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...Kapitel 1 Normative (prescriptive) accounting theory Inte baserad på empiriska tester (som positive teorier är) utan de är baserade på vad researcher tror ska eller borde inträffa vid särskilda omständigheter. Teorier som föreskriver (prescribe) istället för förklarar (describe) särskilda handlingar kallas för normativa teorier eftersom att dom baseras på normer som researchern som lägger fram teorierna har. T.ex. säger hur vi ska ta till oss och använda redovisningsmetoder. Kapitel 2 Theories of regulation Public interest theory There is the public interest theory of regulation which propose that regulation be introduces to protect the public. It assumes that the regulatory body (usually government) is a neutral arbiter of the public interest and does not let its own self-interest impact on its rule-making processes. “The regulator does its best to regulate so as to maximize social welfare. Consequently, regulation is thought of as a trade-off between the costs of regulation and its social benefits in the form of improved operations of markets”. Regulation put in place to benefit society as a whole rather than vested interests. Regulatory body considered to represent interests of the society in which it operates, rather than private interests of the regulators. Assumes that government is a neutral arbiter. Criticisms of public interest theory Critics question assumptions that economic markets operate inefficiently if unregulated. Question the assumption...
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...SECURITIES ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Centre Name: M S Ramaiah School of Advanced Studies Course Name: MBA in Finance and Accounting Name of the Student : Biju Govind M Student Registration No : HMB0909008 Module Leader at MSRSAS : Prof. Uday Kumar Jagannathan FULL TIME 2009 BATCH M. S. Ramaiah School of Advanced Studies New BEL Road, Gnanagangothri Campus, MSR Nagar, Bangalore-560 054 Tel: 23605539 / 23601983 / 2360 4759. Fax: 2360 1923 website: http://www.msrsas.org |M. S. Ramaiah School of Advanced Studies | |Postgraduate Engineering and Management Programme- Coventry University (UK) | |Assessment Sheet | |Department |Management Studies | |Course |MBA in Finance and Accounting |Batch |Full-Time 2009 | |Module Code |ACF 505 |Module Title |Securities Analysis and Portfolio Management | |Module Leader |Prof. Uday Kumar Jagannathan |Module Completion Date |23-07-2010 | ...
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...and Stock Markets 7.2 Market Values, Book Values, and Liquidation Values 7.3 Valuing Common Stocks 7.4 Simplifying the Dividend Discount Model 7.5 Growth Stocks and Income Stocks 7.6 There Are No Free Lunches on Bay Street 7.7 Market Anomalies and Behavioural Finance 7.8 Summary 8 Net Present Value and Other Investment Criteria 9 Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis to Make Investment Decisions 10 Project Analysis Valuing Stocks LEARNING OBJECTIVES After studying this chapter, you should be able to: LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO5 Interpret stock trading information found on financial Web sites. Calculate the present value of a stock given forecasts of future dividends and future stock price. Use stock valuation formulas to infer the expected rate of return on a common stock. Interpret price-earnings ratios. Explain what professionals mean when they say that “there are no free lunches on Bay Street.” bre0089X_ch07_219-261.indd 219 31/01/12 11:32 AM Third Pass At the Toronto Stock Exchange and many other stock exchanges, all of the stock trading is done electronically, using computers. © James Leynse/Corbis. A corporation can raise cash to fund its investments by borrowing or by selling new shares of common stock to investors. If it borrows, it has a fixed obligation to repay the lender. If it issues shares, there is no fixed obligation, but the new stockholders become partial owners of the firm. All existing and new stockholders share in its fortunes, in proportion to...
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...Investigating Momentum on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange December 1 2010 Hendrik Snyman 14422425 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering (Management) Department of Industrial Engineering University of Stellenbosch An oil prospector had died and gone to heaven. At the gate, he is met by St Peter.‘Well, I checked you out and you meet all of the qualifications. But there’s one problem,’ He said. ‘We have some tough zoning laws up here, and we keep all of our oil prospectors over in that pen. And as you can see, it is absolutely chock-full. There is no room for you.’ And the prospector said, ’Do you mind if I just say four words?’ St Peter said, ‘No harm in that.’ So the prospector cupped his hands and yelled out, ‘Oil discovered in hell!’ And, of course, the lock comes off the cage and all of the oil prospectors start heading straight down. St Peter said, ‘That’s a pretty sick trick. So,‘ he says, ’go in and make yourself at home. All the room in the world.’ The prospector paused for a minute, then said, ‘No, I think I’ll go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumour after all.’ 1 1 Janet Lowe, The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham: Selected Writings of the Wall Street Legend, Wiley, 1999. I|Page Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to all those people who provided moral and financial support along with particular insight into the weird and wonderful...
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...class of market actor.1 Analysts produce the reports, recommendations and price targets that professional investors utilize to inform their buy and sell decisions, which means that understanding analysts’ work can provide crucial insights on the determinants of value in the capital markets. Yet our knowledge of analysts is limited by insufficient attention to Knightian uncertainty. Analysts estimate the value of stocks by calculating their net present value or by folding the future back into the present. In so doing, they are faced with the fundamental challenge identified by Frank Knight, that is, with the difficulty of making decisions that entail a future that is unknown. These decisions, as Knight wrote, are characterized by ‘neither entire ignorance nor complete . . . information, but partial knowledge’ of the world (Knight, [1921] 1971: 199). The finance literature has not examined the Knightian challenge faced by analysts. Indeed, existing treatments circumvent the problem by adopting one of two extreme positions. In the first, put forward by orthodox economists, it is assumed that Knightian uncertainty is non-existent and that calculative decision-making is straightforward. Analysts are presented as mere calculators in a probabilistic world of risk (Cowles, 1933; Lin and McNichols, 1998; Lim, 2001). In the second, put forward by neo-institutional sociologists and behavioural finance scholars, analysts face too much uncertainty to engage in individual calculation. Analysts confront...
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...Required and Implied Pablo Fernandez Professor of Finance. IESE Business School, University of Navarra Camino del Cerro del Aguila 3. 28023 Madrid, Spain e-mail: fernandezpa@iese.edu January 29, 2013 The equity premium designates four different concepts: Historical Equity Premium (HEP); Expected Equity Premium (EEP); Required Equity Premium (REP); and Implied Equity Premium (IEP). We highlight the confusing message in the literature regarding the equity premium and its evolution. The confusion arises from not distinguishing among the four concepts and from not recognizing that although the HEP is equal for all investors, the REP, the EEP and the IEP differ for different investors. A unique IEP requires assuming homogeneous expectations for the expected growth (g), but we show that there are several pairs (IEP, g) that satisfy current prices. We claim that different investors have different REPs and that it is impossible to determine the REP for the market as a whole, because it does not exist. We also investigate the relationship between (IEP – g) and the risk free rate. There is a kind of schizophrenic approach to valuation: while all authors admit different expectations of equity cash flows, most authors look for a unique discount rate. It seems as if the expectations of equity cash flows are formed in a democratic regime, while the discount rate is determined in a dictatorship. 1. Introduction 2. Historical Equity Premium (HEP) 3. Expected Equity Premium (EEP) 2.1. First...
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