...What is a Black Swan? My first thought when it was mentioned in class during the semester was the film Black Swan that hit theatres in 2011. I, of course, was completely wrong. A Black Swan in the business world, or as Taleb explains, anywhere in the world is an event that comes as surprise effects things drastically and is often looked upon as something that should have been seen coming in hindsight. The Black Swan theory was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and is defined as an event that breaks off from what usually happened in a certain scenario and that is nearly impossible to predict. The theory is most commonly used in the business sense to describe markets, however, Taleb uses it in a sense to describe every sort of event that can happen in the world. The Black Swan is typically characterized by three criteria. These are rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability. These Black Swan events allow for Taleb to discredit many things that are used in the financial world today, such as Gaussian’s bell curve. The theory of the Black Swan has been proved very important topic and is used and talked about by many people in not only the business world but in everything. Taleb gives an example of what the Black Swan name comes from by describing the actual myth of the black swan. For as long as people had known there was no other type of swan besides a white one. Until Australia was discovered no one had ever seen a black swan and it used as a common...
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...This essay is based on the 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960 - ). It is hardly an obscure tome, having been on the New York Times bestseller list for several weeks. Before I get to the essence of this essay I believe explaining what the term “Black Swan” means and saying a few words about the author would be in order. It was once thought in the Old World that only white swans existed. Then from Australia came the realization that there were black swans. And no, they were not white swans made black by bootblack or any other artificial coloring medium. After millennia of observations in the West of millions of white swans, the sighting of one black swan was enough to invalidate this long and firmly held belief. In a broader sense then A Black Swan is a sudden, monumental, and completely unexpected event. WWI, WWII, and 9/11 were Black Swans. If one were to win a multi-million dollars lottery that would be a personal Black Swan (Black Swans are not all negative, although given the troubles experienced by some of these huge lottery winners, this might also be negative). But a Black Swan is more than this – it goes to the heart of and challenges the putative acceptance of Gaussian probabilities. Least you think Gaussian or bell shaped probability functions are theoretical only and not important in real life, then consider that not only mathematics, but engineering, medicine, social sciences, economomics, the insurance...
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...Black Swann events are rare events, highly impactful and unpredictable but can be prepared for. A true Black Swan event have three features, first it must surprise the viewer, second must have an extreme impact and lastly the nature of the event is predictable after it has already happened. Black Swan events implicate a major loss or damage to an asset, they progress rapidly and for a period of time, the astonishing fact is that after the event has occurred then the antecedent evidence is noted to have been in existence all along (Taleb, 2007). Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanise American is a scholar and statistician. According to him a black swan event is an event that will cause a great impact, is unpredictable and inspires the viewer to have willed to take precautions if only he had seen the event coming. He condemned the methods of risk management applied by industries, saying that they can easily predict an event but due to ignorance occurrence of black swan events presides. Yes, it is possible for managers to proactively forecast Black Swan events, by taking advantage of positive events and withstanding challenging events is a key way to starting its management, it also involves realization of their knowledge culmination and appreciating their ignorance. Below is a discussion on how managers can plan for Black swan event; First pointing most probable effects of business disruptions, developing a strategic plan and actions to prevent or reduce risk occurrence (Taleb, 2007). This...
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...The theory of black swan events was developed by Nassim Taleb to explain the unpredictability of very rare high impact events that are normally beyond normal human expectations. The theory of black swan events has become a metaphor for unexpected events that cause shock and awe to victims and/or observers, and that these victims/observers who after experiencing the shock and awe of the unexpected event, tend to rationalize or find explanations that fit the ocurrence of the mishap among normal events. In its true sense as its developer- Nassim Taleb- intends it to mean, the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of very large magnitude and consequence and whose occurrence in nature is so rare as to be considered not just outliers but extreme outliers. This means that Black swan events are so extreme that their probability is not computable using scientific methods. Black Swan events are also so called because they are events that fall within our blind spots, are oblivious not only to the mind but also to thought due to psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. Black swan events were introduced by Nassim Taleb in his 2004 book, Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. In his 2007 book (revised and completed in 2010), The Black Swan, Taleb extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards...
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...Movie Critique The focus of this critique is on the film Black Swan, directed by Darren Aronofsky and starring Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, and Vincent Cassel. A movie about a young woman’s consuming desire for perfection as a ballerina in the role of a lifetime. Throughout this film the mise-en-scene was raw and grainy with diverse camera angles that gave an out of control feel that added to the instability within the scenes. As the film progresses the viewer becomes increasingly unsure of the reality that the Nina character is experiencing. The tight quarters of the sets, apart from the practice room, emphasized and helped to showcase the pressure at the studio and the controlling atmosphere at home. The editing in this film was linear and showed the gradual and increasing mental instability of Nina. At times it was difficult to know where in her mental decline she was at and what she was experiencing versus what was only in her mind. Had the film been edited in a nonlinear fashion it would have added a tremendous amount of confusion for the viewer and destroyed the continuity of her experiences and gradual mental deterioration. Sound is effectively used in scenes depicting the reality of particular events. The harsh sounds of the cutting and clipping of Nina’s fingernails sounded like the snapping of small bones. The sound of grinding the bottoms of the ballet slippers in the resin box, the scraping, scratching sound of the knife slicing the bottoms of the...
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...Auteur Theory: Translated from the French, auteur simply means "author". There have been varied perceptions regarding this theory, its importance and effectiveness. Auteur theory is essentially “a method of evaluating films based on the director’s involvement and input”. The concept of ‘Auteur’ was first introduced by François Truffaut in 1954 in A Certain Tendency in French Cinema.(1) In this work he claimed that film is a great medium for expressing the personal ideas of the director. He suggested that this meant that the director should therefore be regarded as an auteur. According to him, there are three forms in which a director may be regarded as an Auteur. He agreed with André Basin’s idea that the film must be the direct expression of the director’s vision. The second aspect was that the director must be skilled with the camera. He believed the director is to camera as the writer is to pen. Lastly he believed for a director to be considered as an Auteur, he must leave behind a distinctive signature (based on Alexander Astruc’s idea), visually or as an idea in the film. (2) Years later, this concept was reintroduced by Andrew Sarris in 1962, in a publication titled “Notes on Auteur theory” (3). Accordingly, for a director to be considered as an auteur, the director must be well versed with the technical aspects of the film. The director must have a distinct style or a signature that distinguishes his films from the others. The movies must have a theme, an inner meaning...
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...For the past two weeks I’ve been reading a book entitled Tyrell. The author of the novel is Coe Booth. This was an extremely interesting book in my opinion. Genres included in the text were realistic fiction and fantasy. The two complimented the story really well. It’s a story about a teen that’s homeless, and feels money is the only way out. He plans to have a party, but it seemed he would end up like his father in jail. Though the odds are against him, Tyrell makes it out with more money than expected. Within the story I made a connection with the main character. His name is Tyrell Daniels. Tyrell is the oldest brother of two children, and a very responsible young man. He tries his best to remain calm and handle business while his father is away. Tyrell changes from static to dynamic by the end of the story. He does the right thing when he tells his best friend Calvin that he can’t bring drugs into the party area. I can identify with the character when he gets tired of feeling like the parent to his younger brother Troy. Another character is Troy, Tyrell’s younger brother. Troy is seven years old in the first grade, and because his mother likes to receive his SSI checks she keeps him in the PEC program. One more character is Jasmine. She is in the same situation as Tyrell, who becomes one of his closest companions. She’s a brace face acnified, thick sized, Puerto Rican. Despite all of these problems, she’s perceptually a beautiful young lady. The setting of...
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...their assigned roles has to dominate their thoughts at some time. Aronofsky displays a reality of today’s society of a double personality disorder, it does not necessarily have to be an exorcism where some demonic, evil creature takes completely over your body, but a regular everyday average person that suffer from this disorder. The Black Swan displays hidden realities of the world of entertainment and its high stakes. The rigorous, extraordinary amount of time of that profession. The discipline, the aching bodies, joints, bruises, injuries. A continuous struggle for the unattainable perfection. The constant pursuit while deep down in a dancer’s mind knowing and accepting that he/she will never truly find it. It showed us that a dancer is never really secured or at rest. The constant worried of who may take their role, who may be better or play the role better. So, how can a dancer perform her/his best, staying focused and able to maintain a standard, when they are constantly measuring life changes against their profession? A dancer is married in a sense to his/her career, a prisoner of his/her own accord, a pursuit of perfection. Black Swan also displays the mentally unstable mind, of a depressed mother, domineering and a perfectionist herself. Expression of grief occasionally, unable to let Nina grow. How she had to give up her career to raise her at the age of 28, which bring up some other topics: Was her Mom talented as Nina? Did she have a leading role? Or was she always...
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...The focus of this critique is on the film Black Swan, directed by Darren Aronofsky and starring Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, and Vincent Cassel. A movie about a young woman’s consuming desire for perfection as a ballerina in the role of a lifetime. Throughout this film the mise-en-scene was raw and grainy with diverse camera angles that gave an out of control feel that added to the instability within the scenes. As the film progresses the viewer becomes increasingly unsure of the reality that the Nina character is experiencing. The tight quarters of the sets, apart from the practice room, emphasized and helped to showcase the pressure at the studio and the controlling atmosphere at home. The editing in this film was linear and showed the gradual and increasing mental instability of Nina. At times it was difficult to know where in her mental decline she was at and what she was experiencing versus what was only in her mind. Had the film been edited in a nonlinear fashion it would have added a tremendous amount of confusion for the viewer and destroyed the continuity of her experiences and gradual mental deterioration. Sound is effectively used in scenes depicting the reality of particular events. The harsh sounds of the cutting and clipping of Nina’s fingernails sounded like the snapping of small bones. The sound of grinding the bottoms of the ballet slippers in the resin box, the scraping, scratching sound of the knife slicing the bottoms of the shoes were...
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...El propósito del presente trabajo es analizar uno de los personajes que aparece en la película “El cisne negro”. El trabajo se encuentra dividido en tres partes. Primero, se presentará los postulados básicos del modelo elegido. Segundo, se darán a conocer las características del personaje escogido para su análisis y que se pueden apreciar en el largometraje. Tercero, se verán dichas características bajo el punto de vista del modelo psicológico planteado. Finalmente se presenta una pequeña conclusión respecto al ideal que aspira una persona completamente funcional. Para éste trabajo el modelo que escojo es el humanista existencial o fenomenológico y se utiliza como representante de dicho modelo a Carl Rogers. Primero expondré, a manera de resumen, los postulados principales del modelo elegido. El modelo humanista aquí presentado es el enfoque que afirma que a la gente se le comprende desde sus propios sentimientos y percepciones; esto es, desde su propio mundo fenomenológico (incluye todo lo que captan los sentidos de una persona en determinado momento). El comportamiento de un individuo encuentra su base en el mundo fenomenológico que es único para cada persona. Dentro de los postulados básicos de ésta teoría se encuentran: * la gente es capaz de estar consciente de su propia persona. * Las personas tienen la capacidad de tener control sobre sus vidas. * Los terapeutas no deben intentar manipular los acontecimientos que el paciente comparte sino más...
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...could only exert pressure on oneself, thus threatening one’s emotional well-being. Sometimes it’s okay to acknowledge and even yield to our desires and temptations provided no harm could be done to others and society in which we are living in. Through the course of Lina’s revelation of her dark side, the relationship between Lina and her mother undergoes a sea change. She is initially obedient and respectful to her mother, seeing her as a role model in the pursuit of the top of her career. But as her dark side begins to reveal, she gradually comes to the realization of her mother’s creepy possessiveness and begins to defy his mother. Their conflict is at its greatest when Lina discovers her mom’s attempt to stop her from playing the black swan and that’s when she verbally attacks even physically injures her mom. Personally, I think her mother’s over-protectiveness stems from the early setbacks in her career. She...
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...To what extend the need of being perfect leads man to its own destruction? Perfection seen through the film “The Black Swan”. Claudia Patricia Villacís Galarza IB Code: 001421-054 Words: 3980 Abstract The research question of this extended essay is: To what extend the need of being perfect leads man to its own destruction? It is an analysis of perfection through the film The Black Swan. In the film the main character, Nina, is an obsessed ballerina who at the end destroyed her own life. I began the essay trying to prove that her obsession with being perfect is what leaded her to her destruction and death, but after analyzing the movie it all turned around. I based my investigation in reviews of the film, different type of articles; such as from doctors who give their opinion about Nina’s behavior. These ones in particular where the most important for the answer of my research question, because these doctors have analyzed the mental condition of Nina and together with my own opinion it helped me to come to a conclusion. I also focused on the opinion of various dancers about the film, because they are the ones that understand the world of ballet more than anyone else. At last there were also interviews with the director to explain why he decided to make this movie and what he was trying to prove through it. The movie was, of course my principal source, I applied the whole investigation in the analysis of the movie. Then after having read all that information and having...
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...“Black Swan” - “Yellow Wallpaper” Why can one only lose their self entirely or free oneself by creating an alternate reality in their own mind? If we compare the “Black Swan to the “Yellow Wallpaper,” maybe then we can begin to answer this question. “In the film 'Black Swan', Nina, always a white swan, begins to explore her Shadow (her black swan) for her lead role in 'Swan Lake'. I'm struck by the factors and presences pushing and pulling Nina into and out of her Shadow: namely, her creepy, infantilizing mother and her abusive, seducing director.” (Tally) Nina doesn't get to explore her notorious dark side in any remotely safe or healthy ways. Her mother has trapped her inside a pink, endless childhood--her bedroom full of stuffed animals, her mother physically dressing and undressing her, with Nina calling her 'mommy' in a needy, babyish voice which is the only thing, it seems, that will talk her mother back from the extreme edge of her bouts of rage.” (Tally) “Nor can Nina explore her Shadow in the world of the ballet--dominated by the forceful and dangerous director and a cut-throat group of ballerinas, many of whom seem to share Nina's eating disorder and her willingness to do anything to be on top in the company.” (Tally) “So from the beginning, is there any chance for Nina? At the end of the ballet, the swan queen can only find freedom in death: a fate that Nina shares.” (Tally) When Nina crosses over to...
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...Introduction In my essay I am going to be discussing ‘Tragic Ballets ‘and ‘Heroines’. As a child I spent a brief period studying ballet and on a visit to Prague, in February 2013, I enjoyed watching the Russian Ballet perform 'Giselle' at the Prague State Opera House. I have often wondered why so many ballets and the female heroines in them end in tragedy. My essay will discuss the issues that female heroines face and the events that eventually bring them to their fate. I will also discuss the origins and definitions of ‘heroine’ and ‘tragedy’. In order to examine my chosen themes I started my investigation by watching, analysing and comparing the films ‘Black Swan’, ‘The Red Shoes’ and the ballet ‘Giselle’. I read the feminist writings of Marina Warner on the portrayal of women, the Catholic Church and also her book on ‘Joan of Arc. In my essay I will be discussing the themes of love, conquest, devotion, deception, spirituality and how they play a role in altering the lives of the female protagonists in various different situations and offer my own opinions on how the tragedies are formed. I will begin my comparison of the female heroines that I will be discussing, with Giselle. Figure 1'Giselle and Count Albrecht' The Russian Ballet Giselle is a poor peasant’s daughter who falls in love with Count Albrecht. Count Albrecht’s character plays the main part in the protagonist Giselle’s downfall during the ballet, as he breaks her heart when she learns that he is betrothed...
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...In the two excerpts from, Letters to a Young Poet by Rainer Maria Rilke and Black Swan Green by David Mitchell, these excerpts have similar central ideas, about beauty and individual versus group identity. However the bigger idea is beauty within poetry. In Letters to a Young Poet, Rilke is writing a letter to a young poet who had originally wrote to him about getting some advice or help on his work. Rilke had tried to explain to the young writer how criticism barely affects his work, or any piece of art for that matter, nor do the ideas out of others, they do nothing. He wanted the young poet to just take from his life, just sticking to his thoughts, such as using images he has seen before, dreams he has had, or even fond memories of his....
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