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Bond Valuation Spreadsheet

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Week 3 DQ 2 Forecasting Methods

Read Problem 6 in Chapter 6 of your textbook. Calculate and answer parts a through d. Include all calculations and spreadsheets in your post. Explain why the moving average method was used instead of another forecasting method. What might be another forecasting method that could prove to be just as useful? Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

Below see the number of mergers that took place over a 12-year period in the savings and loan industry.

|Year | |Mergers | |Year |
|2005 |61 |52.6 |8.4 |70.56 |
|2006 |83 |55.6 |27.4 |750.76 |
|2007 |123 |63 |60 |3,600 |
|2008 |97 |75.2 |21.8 |475.24 |
|2009 |186 |85.6 |100.4 |10,080.16 |
|2010 |225 |110 |115 |13,225 |
|2011 |240 |142.8 |97.2 |9,447.84 |
|Total | | |430.2 |37,649.56 |

MSE = 37,649.56 / 7 = 5,378.51

MAD = 430.2 / 7 = 61.46

c. The 5-year weighted moving average is used to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Using...

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