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Brazil Capital Inflows

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Submitted By fsmith
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Brazil has been trying to curtail capital inflows. Why is capital flowing into Brazil? What does this do to the Exchange rate? Why would the Brazilian authorities care? What might they do about it? What are the policy consequences of their actions? Trace through the ramifications of whatever policy is chosen
Many developing countries including Brazil have reaped handsome rewards from surging capital inflows in recent years. This is widely regarded as a very welcome phenomenon, raising levels of investment and encouraging economic growth. However, surging capital inflows can also be something of a double-edged sword, inflicting rather less welcome and destabilizing side effects, including the tendency for the local currency to appreciate in value, undermining the competitiveness of export industries and potentially giving rising to inflation. The major contributing factor to inflation is that the capital inflows result in a buildup of foreign exchange reserves. As these reserves are used to buy domestic currency, the domestic monetary base expands without a corresponding increase in production: too much money begins to chase too few goods and services.
The combination of expected reduced depreciation with high interest rates in relation to the interest rates in the United States and other developed economies attracted capital inflows to Brazil. The situation has also been further exacerbated by relatively high domestic rates that have induced banks to incur open foreign exchange positions by financing local currency lending with foreign currency borrowing. Even when the rules limit their foreign currency position, the banks still become indirectly exposed to the risk of devaluation. Additionally, when using exchange rate as a nominal anchor that leads to high interest rates combined with little immediate prospect of

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