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# Bsop330

Submitted By Mari2012
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BSOP330 QUIZ:

QUIZ 1:
1. Question : (TCO 7 & 8) Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called ____________.

cycles

trends

exponential variation

random variation

Instructor Explanation: Trend is the gradual movement of data up or down over time. Reference Heizer 10th edition page 108 and 119-120.

2. Question : (TCO 7 & 8) Time series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

Random variations

Seasonality

Cycles

They may exhibit all of the above.

Instructor Explanation: Because time series data contains past data, predicting the future with 100% accuracy is impossible. Sales trends, random variations, seasonality and purchasing cycles will always be present. Therefore all four selections are correct. Reference Heizer 10th. edition page 108.

3. Question : (TCO 6 & 8) Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

57.1

58.9

61.0

65.5

Instructor Explanation: Exponential Smoothing = Old Forecast + (Actual Demand - Old Forecast)
= 58.0 + .3(61 - 58) = 58.0 + .9
= 58.9

4. Question : (TCO 6 & 8) Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be __________.

97.4

100.6

101.6

103.0

Instructor Explanation: Exponential Smoothing = Old Forecast + α(Actual Demand - Old Forecast)
= 99.0 + .4(103 - 99) = 99.0 + 1.6
= 100.6

5. Question : (TCO 1 & 2) The three major types of forecasts used by business organizations are _________.

Student Answer: strategic, tactical, and operational

economic, technological, and demand

exponential smoothing, Delphi, and regression

causal, time-series, and seasonal

departmental, organizational, and territorial

Instructor Explanation: Economic reflect the business cycle such as inflation, interest rates. Technological looks at the birth of new technology and new products. Demand is the sales forecast and the rate customers will want the company's product. Reference Heizer 10th. edition page 105.