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Business Decision Making Ahmed R Full

In: Business and Management

Submitted By arizekallah
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Assessment Activity Front Sheet

This front sheet must be completed by the learner and included with the work submitted for assessment.
Learner Name
Ahmed R Assessor Name
Sahar Ata
Date Issued Hand in Date
TBC Submitted on
TBC
Qualification
Level 5 Edexcel BTEC Higher National Diploma in Business (QCF)
Unit 6
Business Decision Making – 15 credits
Please submit assignment electronically to your Examination Officer at xxxx@LSBF.org.uk. You will receive a submission receipt which you should retain for your own records.
Assignment 1 will give learners the opportunity to achieve:
Learning Outcome 1 - Be able to use a variety of sources for the collection of data, both primary and secondary
Learning Outcome 2 - Understand a range of techniques to analyse data effectively for business purposes
Learning Outcome 3 - Be able to produce information in appropriate formats for decision making in an organisational context
Learning Outcome 4 - Be able to use software-generated information to make decisions in an organisation.
Criteria reference To achieve the criteria the evidence must show that the learner is able to: Task No Page numbers
1 a) create a plan for the collection of primary and secondary data for a given business problem.
Interview, questionnaire.
b) present the survey methodology and sampling frame used.
c) design a questionnaire for a given business problem
2 a) create information for decision making by summarizing data using representative values. (table w/ info summarize)
b) analyse the results to draw valid conclusions in a business context
c) analyse data using measures of dispersion to inform a given business scenario (median, mode, standard deviation…)
d) explain how quartiles, percentiles and the correlation coefficient are used to draw useful conclusions in a business context
3 a) produce graphs using spreadsheets and draw valid conclusions based on the information derived
b) create trend lines in spreadsheet graphs to assist in forecasting for specified business information
c) prepare a business presentation using suitable software and techniques to disseminate information effectively
d) produce a formal business report
4 a) use appropriate information processing tools b) prepare a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path
c) use financial tools for decision making.

Learner’s Declaration

I certify that the work submitted for this assignment is my own.

Learner signature: Ahmed R Date: 28/04/2013

Scenario:
The problem that will be taken into consideration is this Task will be the case of a logistics company called AZE that has an important employee satisfaction problem. Most of their employees leave during their first year and most of them say that they are not satisfied with their overall job and environment. The objective of this task would be to find what are the reasons that cause this highly depreciated rate.

1.

d) Create a plan for the collection of primary and secondary data for a given business problem.

They are two types of sources that can be used when conducting a research: Primary and Secondary.
Primary sources give first-hand results that are provided by a research or study directed specifically for the case in question.
Secondary sources usually interpretation or an analysis of a primary source.

In the case of AZE, the usual sequence would be to start by searching for potential reasons for the low employee satisfaction, in other words secondary sources to reduce the range of possibilities. Internet and Books are usually the best secondary sources to start the search.

The next step for AZE would be to focus on primary sources that provide more accurate and relevant information. AZE has already identified the main problem by interviewing the employees that actually left the firm. After acknowledging the employee satisfaction issue, AZE has to conduct a survey that will give them a closer insight on the reasons why the employees are not satisfied. The survey will provide AZE with relevant information that will help find solutions for the current concerns.

e) Present the survey methodology and sampling frame used.

To create the right survey, AZE has to define its target population, the sample it is focusing on and how they both are related with the sampling frame.

-A population is the compilation of all the people or items that are subject to the study: For AZE’s case it is “All the employees”.
-A sample is the particular group of the population that is being observed or studied.
-A sampling frame is the group that can be studied in a certain population.

The goal of AZE is to create a thought-through survey that will provide descriptive statistics that will be inferred to create a more successful strategy. The survey methodology is about sampling a certain population based on pre chosen characteristics. In the case of AZE, the population and the sample are the same: All the employees. Having the whole population as a sampling frame is a positive characteristic. The total number of employees in AZE is 150, it is a manageable population plus having the opportunity to survey all the employees will give very accurate results. After collecting the results, AZE will look at the outcomes in a general way then divide the employees by function/level of management to have a more detailed look.

The survey will be close-ended questions mostly with some room for suggestions. It will be in a multiple-choice format with answer based on a scale of three.

c) Design a questionnaire for a given business problem.

1) Are you a:
a. Manager
b. Driver
c. Office assistant
d. Other _______________

2) How long have you been working for AZE:
a. 1 year or less
b. 2 years
c. 3 years
d. 4 years or more: ___ years.

3) How well do you think you are paid for your job?
a. Extremely well
b. Well
c. Not Well
d. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

4) How are the tasks that are assigned to you?
a. Extremely realistic
b. Realistic
c. Unrealistic at all
d. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

5) How is the level of stress during your work?
a. Extremely high
b. High
c. Low
d. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

6) How would you describe your supervisor’s management methods?
a. Extremely satisfactory
b. Satisfactory
c. Unsatisfactory
d. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

7) Do you feel appreciated by your co-workers?
a. Extremely appreciated
b. Appreciated
c. Not Appreciated
d. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

8) How satisfied are you with your over all Job?
a. Extremely satisfied
b. Satisfied
c. Unsatisfied
d. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

9) How likely would you be willing to change your job in AZE to another in a different company?
a. Extremely likely
b. Likely
c. Unlikely

10) Personally, What is the most important aspect that AZE should work more at? (Employer-employee relationship)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2.

a) Create information for decision making by summarizing data using representative values, and use the results to draw valid and useful conclusions in a business context.

As mentioned before, AZE has 150 employees. After conducting the survey, the Human Resources Management decided to study the results in a specific way. They are going to separate the results based on the functions: Managers, Drivers, and Assistants/other.

AZE has 20 managers, 30 hold assistance or secondary jobs and 100 truck drivers.

Questions (refer above) Managers Drivers Assistance/other Q2 80% said 3 years or more 70% said 1 year or less 60% said 2 to 3 years
Q3
90% said Well 60% said Well 70% said Well Q4 70% said Realistic 80% said Unrealistic 60% said Unrealistic
Q5 90% said High 80% said Extremely High 70% said High
Q6 70 % said Satisfactory 90% said Unsatisfactory 60% said Unsatisfactory
Q7 70% said Appreciated 60% said appreciated (only fellow drivers) 70% said appreciated (not by managers)
Q8 80% said Satisfied 80% said unsatisfied 60% said unsatisfied
Q9 80% said Unlikely 80% said Extremely likely 60% said likely
Q10 No repeated suggestion Better Managers Better management

The results of the survey have clearly showed that the main unsatisfied employees are the drivers who are followed by the assistants.

Question three’s results show clearly that the money is not the motive for AZE’s employees’ early departures.

It is clear that the problem that AZE is facing is related to their management, especially the quality of their managers. Most of the drivers and assistants are no satisfied with their supervisors and think that they are given unrealistic tasks. This huge disappointment has been clearly proven in the last three questions where it states that most of them are not satisfied with their job and are most likely going to look for an other job.

AZE has distinctly found out what is the problem: “Managers”. Their strategy is failing which is dragging the whole company down. The most considerable solution would be to start by meeting with 20 managers, sharing the results with them and discuss what are potential changes that can be made. The HRM will need to keep track of the new managerial strategies and see if they are effective and are implemented in the right way.

b) Analyze the data using measures of dispersion.
Taking the example of Question 8, AZE’s managers’ answers data look as follows:

Managers: 16 were satisfied, 1 was unsatisfied and 3 were extremely satisfied.

Let us assume that the employees had also to rank their level of satisfaction based on a scale of 0 to 20. 0 meant that the employee was not satisfied at all and 20 meant that they were extremely satisfied.

Managers’ scores: 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 18, 19, 19.

Mean: 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 18, 19, 19 = 12.4 20

Median: 12

Mode: 12

Standard deviation:
(13 Square root [3/2])/5= about 3.1843

Range: 19 – 5 =14

Using these measures of dispersion becomes very important when it comes to evaluating the relevance of a survey. Identifying the outliers, in this case the “5” is the main one, is very important. It clears out the misleading data to form educated results. For the case of the example above, the mean and the median are very close, the standard deviation is minor and there are no significant outliers. All these results assure us that for this case scores can be a used in relevant decision making processes.

c) Describe how quartiles, percentiles, correlation coefficient are used to draw useful conclusions in a business context.

Data: 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 18, 19, 19.

-The first quartile (Q1) or the 25th percentile represents the number that 25% of the numbers in the data given are smaller than.
-The second quartile (Q2) of the 50th percentile is the median. 50% are greater than it and 50% are smaller than it.
-The third quartile (Q3) or the 75th percentile represents the number that 75% of the data is less than.
-The fourth quartile (Q4) is the largest number in the number line, 100% are smaller than it.
In the example of the survey, quartiles will clearly show what every percentage of the employees scored and where the majority lies. This method can also be very important when studying ranges of income or credits.

Taken the numbers above into consideration:
Q1 = 11 Q3 = 13
Q2 = 12 Q4 = 19

The correlation coefficient is a “measure” that determines the linear relationship between two related variables. It is calculated by dividing the covariance of both variables by the product of their standard deviation.
The correlation coefficient equation is symbolized as: It is not very relevant to the survey scenario but it can be in numerous other business cases. If we were to compare the employee satisfaction with their output, the correlation coefficient would be very helpful to compare, contrast and monitor the relationship. The correlation coefficient is usually represented as a line graph with all the data plugged in as points to form a two-dimensional scatter plot.
The correlation coefficient graph looks like this:

3.

a) Using the data shown above, prepare a range of graphs using spreadsheets -- bar chart, frequency histogram, relative frequency and cumulative relative frequency and draw valid conclusions based on the information derived.

Maximum Frequency % Cumulative Maximum Frequency % Cumulative
4,3 4 40,00% 3,3 4 20,00%
5,3 6 70,00% 4,3 4 40,00%
3,3 4 20,00% 5,3 6 70,00%
6,3 3 85,00% 6,3 3 85,00%
7,3 3 100,00% 7,3 3 100,00%
More 0 100,00% More 0 100,00%

Frequency histograms organize all the data into a simple understandable chart. In this case, the histogram made it easier to understand how much time did it take for specific students to prepare for the statistics test. It also shows the possible outliers in the number line. The frequency histogram also makes it easier to compare other frequencies to the mean, which in this case is 4.64 hours. Overall, the frequency histogram organizes the data and makes any continuous behavior clear.

b) Use trend lines in spreadsheet graphs to assist in forecasting for specified business information and thus inform decision-making.

The line starts at (.5, 2.4) and continues to increase. The unusual part is at the point (15, 5.2) where the line stops to increase. This phenomenon can help forecast where the usual next duration are on the line and also shows us how from the 5.5 hours point the duration are outside the normal and the extremes like the 7.3 can be considered as outliers.

c) Prepare a formal business report.

Title: Test preparation

Methodology: Application of Statistical methods and Skills

Abstract: This study is done compare the different durations students take to prepare for a statistics test. The sample that will be taken in consideration will be of 20 students. After finding out that the times were quite different, it can be assumed that the different methods of study differed between the 20 students in the sample.

Analysis: The overall experiment showed good results. The numbers did not vary a lot were close to the mean, which was 4.64 hours of study. They were some outliers both at the top and the bottom, which show that some students used different study techniques.

Conclusion
The experiment was successful and all the information that were expected to be extracted were extracted. For future trials, it would be interesting to even compare the actual marks the students got in the test and try to find out what is the best way to study including other variables like class attendance or disturbance.

4.

a) Use appropriate information processing tools (excel) to get your answers required below. +
b) Prepare a project plan (network) for the activity mentioned in the scenario above and determine the critical path for this activity (for which data is given) using the technique learned in the class.

This Gantt chart represents all the activities and how they are time related.

d) Use financial tools (excel based tools) for decision-making and find out NPV, IRR and PV of Cash inflows (discounted cash flow). Decide on the basis of calculated NPV and IRR whether this project should be accepted? Why? Or why not?

When the data was computed in Microsoft Excel as follows:
Year Cash flow NPV IRR PV
0 -140000 -140000,00 -140000,00 0,00
1 25000 22321,43 19143,54 22321,43
2 40000 31887,76 23454,42 31887,76
3 45000 32030,11 20205,03 32030,11
4 60000 38131,08 20629,12 38131,08
5 100000 56742,69 26327,63 56742,69
6 150000 75994,67 30240,25 75994,67 137,338.32 0,00 257107,73

The graphs under show that based on the IRR and the NPV analysis the project is profitable and should be accepted. The IRR was 18%, which surpassed the cost that was considered at 12%. When all the cash flow ins and outs were added the NPV was positive 137,338.32, which proves that the project is viable.

References
ADFC (2013) Untitled. [online] Available at: http://www.dcf.state.fl.us/admin/publications/docs/empsatis.pdf [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
En.wikipedia.org (1996) Survey methodology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. [online] Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_methodology [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
En.wikipedia.org (2013) Correlation coefficient - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. [online] Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_coefficient [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Google Books (n.d.) Business Statistics. [online] Available at: http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=KQ25WExx5usC&pg=PA285&lpg=PA285&dq=mean+standard+deviation+employee+satisfaction&source=bl&ots=Jkj_31QSbT&sig=u1pyrGdUfQuVuF_xADA6u5NOnOE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=j1p9UZqnC4epOra4gfgJ&ved=0CEMQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=mean%20standard%20deviation%20employee%20satisfaction&f=false [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Hspm.sph.sc.edu (2009) NPV and IRR -- Measures for Evaluating Investments. [online] Available at: http://hspm.sph.sc.edu/courses/econ/invest/invest.html [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Investopedia.com (2013) Correlation Coefficient Definition | Investopedia. [online] Available at: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correlationcoefficient.asp [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Ncalculators.com (2013) Correlation Coefficient Example. [online] Available at: http://ncalculators.com/math-worksheets/correlation-coefficient-example.htm [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Princeton.edu (n.d.) Primary vs Secondary Sources. [online] Available at: http://www.princeton.edu/~refdesk/primary2.html [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Simon.cs.vt.edu (n.d.) Untitled. [online] Available at: http://simon.cs.vt.edu/SoSci/converted/Correlation/whcrop1b.gif [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Simon.cs.vt.edu (n.d.) Measures of Dispersion I. [online] Available at: http://simon.cs.vt.edu/SoSci/converted/Dispersion_I/ [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Surveymonkey.com (n.d.) Employee Satisfaction Template Survey. [online] Available at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/Job-Satisfaction-Survey-Template [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Unknown. (2013) Untitled. [online] Available at: http://college.cengage.com/mathematics/larson/trigonometry/6e/shared/appendix/median.pdf [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].
Yale.edu (1918) Primary Sources: What Are Primary Sources?. [online] Available at: http://www.yale.edu/collections_collaborative/primarysources/primarysources.html [Accessed: 28 Apr 2013].

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