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Calaveras

In: Business and Management

Submitted By goho3005
Words 1894
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Calaveras Vineyard
GUSTAVO OCATVIO HERRERA OCAMPO A00313848

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Antecedentes
• NationsBank´s investment-banking group invita a Goldengate Capital a participar en un préstamo para la adquisición de Calaveras Vineyards. • El préstamo asciende a $4.5M; $2M a largo plazo, $2.5 línea de crédito revolvente. • Calaveras Vineyard es una empresa fundada en 1883 con una exitosa gestión de la marca a través del tiempo. Cuenta con 220 acres de los cuales 175 son viñedos. • Calaveras cuenta con 5 categorías de producto: 2 en el segmento super-premium (64.3% de las ventas). • Alta concentración de la distribución en el canal de mayoreo (67%). • Disminución de la demanda de bebidas alcohólicas excepto para la categoría de vinos. • 50% de los requerimientos de uva son obtenidos con mediante 2 contratos de largo plazo, una porción limitada del proceso de fermentación y el almacenaje de producto terminado estaba arrendada a un vecino • Evolución positiva de la rentabilidad gracias al aumento del precio promedio. • Proyecciones financieras ambiciosas (optimistas) • Valor de mercado de los activos se estima entre $5 y $7 M. • Actual gerente general y gerente operativo potenciales compradores (con participación de 85% y 15% respectivamente)

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cualitativo
Fortalezas:
• Empresa con abolengo. • Expertos en producción y comercialización de vinos (Saberhacer) • Talentoso y experimentado equipo gestión. • Sólido posicionamiento de marca. • Óptima variedad de categorías (buena mezcla). • Márgenes brutos crecientes. • Alta rentabilidad.

Debilidades:
• Dependencia en abasto de uva (vulnerabilidad del costo). • Limitación de capacidad instalada para aumentar volúmenes. • Riesgos para sostener precios de venta por vulnerabilidad del costo) • Concentración de la distribución. • Tamaño de la empresa vs. Competidores de segmento alto.

Oportunidades:
• Continuidad de estrategia para elevar precio promedio de venta. • Diversificar distribución. Desarrollar canales alternos. • Mejorar estructura de abasto. Renegociar condiciones y plazos. • Tendencia al alza en consumo de vinos

Amenazas:
• Competencia feroz en segmento alto del mercado • Alto impacto ante la eventual perdida de clientes • Vulnerabilidad del precio de la uva (contratos de largo plazo con costo variable)

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo
Calaveras Vineyards
Estimación de β
Comparable market segment Unlevered β (a) Calaveras % of sales per segment (b) (axb)

Finn&Sawyer Canandaigua Frogg´s Jump

Premium Generic Specialty

1.312 0.540 0.867

74.4% 9.0% 16.6%

0.976 0.049 0.144 1.169

β

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo Calaveras Vineyards
Risk free rate Risk premium rate β Kd Income Tax rate

5.85% Exhibit 14 Interest rates: 30-year T-bonds 7.40% Exhibit 14 Average equity market premiums: Returns on small-company stocks less returns 1.17 9.5% 37.0%

WACC
Fiscal year ended December 31, 1994
(USD$m)

1995

1996

1997

1998

Industry

CAA D CAA + D Kd Ke = rf+β(risk premium rate)

1,393 3,568 4,961 9.5% 14.5% WACC
8.4%

1,882 3,433 5,315 9.5% 14.5%
9.0%

2,477 3,030 5,506 9.5% 14.5%
9.8%

3,148 2,518 5,666 9.5% 14.5%
10.7%

3,934 1,770

673,715 614,459

5,704 1,288,174 9.5% 14.5%
11.9%

9.5% 14.5%

10.4%

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo
Calaveras Vineyards
Incom Tax rate WACC Growth rate (a perpetuidad)

37.0% 10.4% Industria 2.0% Supuesto

Valor de Calaveras Vineyard utilizando Free cash flows descontados
Fiscal year ended December 31, 1994
(USD$m)

1995 t=2

1996 t=3

1997 t=4

1998 t=5

P t=5

t=1

EBIT Depreciation Amortization of org. Costs. CapEx Change in working capital Free cash flows
WACC

5,959 1,082 300 -1,250 -1,406

930 116 60 -250 81

1,085 166 60 -250 -66

1,224 216 60 -250 -221

1,301 266 60 -250 -348

1,420 316 60 -250 -852

593
8.4%

594
9.0% 500

576
9.8% 435

548
10.7% 365

169
11.9% 97

506.0

NPV of FCF NPV de perpetuidad
Valor de Calaveras Vineyard

1,944 3,651

547

5,997.4

5,594

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo
Calaveras Vineyards
Multiples Method
Comparable market segment Calaveras % of sales per segment (a) Market/book ratio (b) (axb) Price/earnings ratio (c) (axc)

Finn&Sawyer Canandaigua Frogg´s Jump

Premium Generic Specialty

74.4% 9.0% 16.6%

2.50 3.11 2.25

1.86 0.28 0.37 2.51

13.00 14.00 15.00

9.67 1.26 2.49 13.42

Calaveras Book Value @ Dec 1994 Calaveras Market Value @ Dec 1994 Calaveras Net Income @ Dec 1994 Calaveras Market Value @ Dec 1994

1,393 3,501 393 5,273

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo
Calaveras Vineyards
Liquidation Method
Asset Liquidation % (a) Book Value (b) Liquidation Value (axb)

Receivables Inventories Net PP&E Acres: 175 x (5+10)/2

85.0% 75.0% 40.0%

370 2,461 1,840

315 1,846 736 1,313 4,209

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo
Calaveras Vineyards
Analisis de sensibilidad

5,594.4 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
GROWTH

7.0%
7,413 7,898 8,471 9,159 10,000 11,052 12,403 14,206 16,729 20,513

8.0%
6,468 6,815 7,216 7,683 8,236 8,899 9,709 10,722 12,024 13,761

9.0%
5,756 6,014 6,307 6,642 7,028 7,479 8,011 8,650 9,431 10,407

10.0%
5,202 5,400 5,622 5,871 6,153 6,476 6,849 7,283 7,796 8,412

10.4%
4,997 5,175 5,373 5,594 5,843 6,125 6,448 6,821 7,258 7,774

11.0%
4,762 4,917 5,089 5,280 5,494 5,734 6,006 6,318 6,677 7,096

12.0%
4,404 4,528 4,665 4,815 4,981 5,165 5,371 5,603 5,866 6,166

13.0%
4,108 4,210 4,320 4,440 4,572 4,717 4,877 5,055 5,254 5,478

WACC

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard

Análisis cuantitativo
Calaveras Vineyards
Credit Analysis
Ratio 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Industry Lower Q Industry Median Industry Upper Q

Curr. liab to net worth (%) T otal. liab to net worth (%) Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x)

170.0% 256.2% 1.24 0.29

139.9% 182.4% 1.24 0.22

106.2% 122.3% 1.33 0.22

80.0% 80.0% 1.48 0.23

45.0% 45.0% 2.16 0.23

102.7% 186.4% 1.50 0.20

44.0% 103.4% 2.50 0.40

8.0% 28.8% 5.50 1.20

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard What is the value of Calaveras Vineyards? Vineyards?
• Considerando los resultados de las distintos métodos de valuación utilizados: (1) FCF descontado $5,594, (2) Múltiplos- Market to Book ratio $3,501; Price to earnings ratio $5,273, (3) Liquidación $4,209, (4) Valor en libros $3,934, el más apropiado es el FCF descontado toda vez que integra nivel de riesgo y la estructura de capital / Deuda con sus costos asociados. El valor de Calaveras Vineyard es de $5,594.

Is the proposed purchase price for Calaveras Vineyards appropiate? appropiate?
• Desde la perspectiva del comprador el precio de $4.5M por Calaveras Vineyard si es apropiado. El valor del FCF descontado en el peor los escenarios desarrollados en el análisis de sensibilidad (growth:0.5%; wacc:13%) es de $4.1M • Desde la perspectiva del vendedor el precio es razonable pero considero que es el precio mínimo a pedir. Existen suficientes argumentos cualitativos y cuantitativos para ubicar el precio en un rango de $4.5M $5.2M

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard Would Calaveras be a creditworthy borrower? borrower?
• Los FCF de Calaveras para los próximos años muestran una posición sólida para afrontar sus obligaciones y una capacidad de endeudamiento adicional. Calaveras Vineyard si es sujeto de crédito.

What are the principal risk factors in this prospective credit? credit?
• Las condiciones establecidas en el crédito: (1) deuda corto plazo garantizada con Cuentas por Cobrar e inventario (2) La deuda largo plazo garantizada por activos fijos, la solidez FCF y la habilidad de gestión demostrada por parte de la administración blinda el riesgo asociado con este crédito hacia los prestamistas. El riesgo principal considero que radica en la variabilidad del precio de la uva (contratos de largo plazo) que eventualmente pudiera disminuir la rentabilidad y los flujos a niveles en los que impidan a Calaveras cumplir con sus obligaciones.

Can Calaveras adequatley service the proposed amount of debt? debt?
• Si. La evolución de los indicadores de deuda confirman la capacidad de Calaveras Vineyard para cumplir con sus obligaciones.

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard What other considerations might influence your evaluation of this firm as a prospective borrower? borrower?
Basado en las 5 Cs del crédito: • Capacity: Considerando el nivel de rentabilidad demostrado en la habilidad para generar efectivo de los FCF, la habilidad de gestión del equipo directivo y el valor de sus activos (garantías del crédito). Calaveras Vineyard cuenta con suficiente capacidad para pagar la deuda contraída en los términos definidos. •Collateral: Los activos totales en el balance cubren suficientemente las obligaciones de deuda contraída por lo que garantizan el pago correspondiente de esta. • Capital: Puesto que es la actitud emprendedora de los integrantes del equipo directivo al convertirse en los inversionista de este proyecto contribuyendo con $1M (85% por la GM y 15% de OM) de su propio dinero. Considero que existen condiciones sólidas para para ser optimistas respecto al resultado. • Conditions: El abolengo de la empresa, la fortaleza de sus marcas, su condición de expertos productores de vinos de alta calidad, las perspectivas de crecimiento del mercado de vinos (a pesar del estancamiento de bebidas alcohólicas), los fuertes lazos comerciales con clientes y proveedores son algunas de las razones por las que se puede concluir que Calaveras Vineyard cuenta con condiciones favorables. • Character: El éxito de posicionar la marca en el segmento premium tanto como el la actitud emprendedora del equipo directivo.
FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

Calaveras Vineyard What should Anne Clemens do?
• Anne Clemens debe aceptar el proyecto. • Las proyecciones financieras muestran solidez del proyecto que será liderado por un equipo que ha demostrado tener el talento y experiencia suficientes para anticipar que el emprendimiento será exitoso. Las expectativas de generación de efectivo del proyecto y de los indicadores de apalancamiento son apropiadas para concluir que existe capacidad de la empresa para dar servicio a la deuda. Los activos de la empresa son suficientes para garantizar el pago de la deuda y están incluidos dentro de las condiciones especificas del crédito. Recomendamos a Goldengate Capital ampliamente otorgar el crédito. Así mismo recomendamos que Calaveras Vineyard mantenga su current ratio por debajo de 2.5(x) y su quick ratio por debajo de 0.4(x).

FZ 4007 – Finanzas corporativas avanzadas

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...keeping family close. On the afternoon of November 2nd the festivities are taken to the cemetery. People clean up their loved ones graves and listen to the village band and think about their loved ones. During the Day of the Dead festivities food is eaten by the living and given to the spirits of their departed ancestors as ofrendas. Tamales are one of the most common dishes prepared for this day for both purposes. In addition to food the drinks are also important to the tradition. Historically the main alcoholic drink was pulque while today most people just drink the favorite alcoholic drink of their loved ones who have passed. Pan de muerto and calaveras are also associated with the Day of the Dead. Pan de muerto is a type of sweet roll shaped like a bun, topped with sugar and usually decorated with a bone-shaped phalanges pieces. Calaveras display colorful designs to represent the individual personality of the departed. The Day of the Dead is still a major holiday in many countries and it holds as much meaning as when it was first celebrated. ...

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Victor Moore's Wrestling Career

...Victor Moore had a wrestling career that most could only dream. In his final year of wrestling at Calaveras High School, finished with a record of 47-9. Moore was a two-time Mother Lode League champion, a two-time CIF Sac-Joaquin Section Division V champion, runner up at the Masters Tournament and a CIF State qualifier. Now that Moore has finished his Calaveras wrestling career, he can see how it shaped him into the man he is today. “It means a lot because before I came here, I wrestled at my old school and it was just a side thing to do because I was board,” Moore said. “But here, I learned that wrestling isn’t just a sport you do in high school. It’s something that helps you with your work ethic.” Moore finished in the top 12 at the State...

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