Can China rise without creating military tension with America and its neighbours in the Asia Pacific Area? Having a powerful and strong neighbour can be both a good thing and a worrying one at the same time. China, the East Asia Giant, is a powerful neighbour whose influence on the international platform today can no longer be underestimated. Its backyard, which namely is the Asia Pacific Area, is composed of by great forces such as Japan, South Korea, India etc., which are all allies of the U.S.A, and small or medium sized countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam etc., as well as a politically sensitive region -- Taiwan, which is regarded as a ‘lost territory’ by Beijing. It is this kind of unique layout of powers in the Asia Pacific Area that raised the concern that the current balance of big powers will be broken inevitably on China’s way of seeking regional hegemony and small or medium-sized countries worry they might be victims of conflicts between great forces. It’s believed that as China continues to grow up it will not tolerate America staying in its backyard and it will try to retrieve its ‘lost territory’, while others believe the current stability of the area will not be challenged because of China’s own limitations. There are a lot of concerns that when China becomes increasingly powerful, will the current balance of the established Asia Pacific Area be broken? And how will America react to China’s rise? John Mearshimer believes that China will not rise peacefully as he mentioned that the ultimate aim of a super power is to ensure that there is no other rival power that has the potential to override it.1 Therefore a powerful China will not tolerate the existence of the U.S. in its backyard with power; instead China is likely try to dominate Asia in the way America did to build up its hegemony. The U.S has fought a series of wars to establish and consolidates its dominance. To be more specific America has fought World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War with the same intension to prevent other forces to dominate the area.2 Will not China, when strong enough, follow the American example and try to drive other forces out of its backyard? Will China tolerate America getting in its way in the possible retrieval of Taiwan? And ultimately: Will America tolerate the rise of China?

1Mearsheimer,

John. Can China Rise Peacefully-Why China’s Rise Will Not Be Peaceful. 2004 September 17. Accessed on 18 Apr. 2011,
2 Al-Khalid,

Khalid R. "A Critique of the China Threat Theory a systematic analysis." ASIAN PERSPECTIVE Volume31 (2007): p41-66. Accessed on18 Apr. 2011, < http:// www.asianperspective.org/articles/v31n3-b.pdf>.

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John Mearshimer believes that America will probably treat China in the way it treated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.3 However to fight a war and win it is a big challenge for a country’s military capability. So does China have the capability to get its ‘lost territory’ back regardless of possible U.S. intervention? It's estimated that it’s impossible for China’s current military capability to prevent the U.S. from dominating its coastline. Also it has been mentioned by military scholars that China is not able to conquer Taiwan with its current capability. 4 Moreover, it has been mentioned by YU Xintian that with the increasingly tightened global cooperation of politics and economy the foundation of a harmonious world has been established. 5 He argued that though the U.S. won the Iraq War and gained hard power, it lost soft power to gain the support from the world. Thus agitating conflicts are not a viable and effective way for great powers to tackle problems and this seems to run counter to China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ Strategy which was first mentioned by Zheng Bijian6 and later adopted by the Chinese government as a foundation of diplomatic strategy. Moreover, in terms of increasing interdependency, some scholars, such as Dick K. Nanto, pointed out that China intends to use bilateral trade and to attract investment to increase interdependence in order to suppress the forces of Taiwanese independence. 7 According to statistics published by China Daily by the end of 2010 the mainland had approved a total of 83,133 of Taiwanese investments valued $52.02 billion which accounts for 5% of the total overseas investment and mainland’s export to Taiwan with value of $29.68 billion which increased by 44.8% compared with 2009.8 Once involved in a war the economic cost would be devastating.

3

Sutter, Robert. Does China Seek to Dominate Asia and Reduce US influence as a Regional Power? Diss. School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, 2007. Paper for fifth in series “Reframing China Policy: The Carnegie Debates,” sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Senate Dirksen Office Building Accessed on 17 Apr. 2011, .
4Hanlon,

Michael O The MIT Press Journals Volume25 (2000): p51-86. The MIT Press,< http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/hanlon_michael_v25n2.pdf >
5YU,

Xintian, and. "Harmonious World and China Path for Peaceful Development." INTERNATIONAL REVIEW Volume 45 (Winter 2006): Accessed on 20 Apr. 2011.
6Suettinger,

Robert L. China Leadership Monitor, No.12The Rise and Descent of “Peaceful Rise”? 20 Apr. 20011, .
7

Nanto, Dick K, and Emma Chanlett-Avery. "The Rise of China and Its Effect on Taiwan, Japan,." (January 13, 2006): CRS Report for Congress. Received through the CRS Web. Accessed on 20 Apr 2011
8

Xinhua "Mainland, Taiwan trade volume jumps 40% in 2010." ChinaDaily 20 Jan. 2011. < http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-01/20/content_11891959.htm

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From my perspective, I do not think John Mearshimer’s assumption that China will follow America’s path to seek regional hegemony is reasonable. The world layout that China is confronting today is absolutely different from that which America did. When America tried to seek its hegemony, there was no other rival force that was as strong as America is today. Was there any country in the world that had its tentacles touching almost every single corner of the world? Now look at China: it’s actually circled by America. Its neighbouring countries, Japan, South Korea, and India are all U.S allies; therefore it is much harder for China to seek hegemony in the way that America did by having wars. If we assume that China will use force to conquer Taiwan, for example; even if we assume that China will use force in the Asia Pacific Area, it’s not likely that the U.S will not intervene. Therefore to win the war China has to have the capability to defeat America while as it has been suggested earlier in the article that China cannot. It’s known to all that China does not yet possess any aircraft carrier in service (though it’s believed that China is building one), while America has 11 in service, greatly limiting China’s attacking radius so that China’s fighters are not able to reach its southern most territory. Therefore, it’s not hard to understand the fact that China’s current military strength doesn't allow it to be involved into any wars in its backyard. China’s focus is not necessarily on seeking regional hegemony in the Asia Pacific Area and driving America out of its backyard, but rather on its domestic agenda9 . There is a Chinese saying: To resist foreign aggression we must first get rid of the enemy within. Having a politically and economically stable environment is the basis of China’s sustainable development. Though the country has become opulent and seems stable, China still has a lot of potential destabilizing factors that may break the current quiescence. According to Chinese government study in 2005, 50% of the total income is earned by 20% of the wealthiest population while only 4.7% of the income is earned by the poorest population.10 The tremendous disparity in income is an urgent issue with which the Chinese Government has to deal. Politically, besides from the Taiwan issue, the Tibet issue and the Xinjiang issue both make Chinese government suffer. Hence, under current circumstance China’s main focus for a relatively long time will not be shifted away from domestic issues. Furthermore, China’s increasing economic cooperation with its neighbours also increases the cost of the instabilities. In 2003 China invested $2 billion in foreign direct investment and received $5.1 billion of foreign direct investment from Japan, $4.5 billion from South Korea, and $3.4 billion11 from Taiwan (and the figures have been increasing significantly annually). Apart from the investment, foreign business, such as Foxconn, greatly
9

Wang, Jisi. "America in Asia: How much does China care?." GlOBAL ASIA Volume2 accessed on 21 Apr.2011 .
10Al-Khalid,

Khalid R. "A Critique of the China Threat Theory a systematic analysis." ASIAN PERSPECTIVE Volume31 (2007): p41-66. Accessed on18 Apr. 2011, .
11

Nanto, Dick K, and Emma Chanlett-Avery. "The Rise of China and Its Effect on Taiwan, Japan,." (January 13, 2006): CRS Report for Congress. Received through the CRS Web. Accessed on 20 Apr 2011

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alleviates the unemployment of locals. Consequently, once the Asia Pacific becomes unstable and China is involved into any military conflicts the economic costs will be unaffordable to China. But on the other hand, similarly, the cost of conflicts of other countries also is very high. Under some circumstances the possibility that China may use force cannot be ignored. Some scholars may argue that for the last decade China didn’t do anything wrong in its backyard12 and China has implemented the “Peaceful Rise” Strategy well. But will the ‘Peaceful Rise’ Strategy still work when China’s benefits and sovereignty is threatened? In 1979 China invaded Vietnam; in 1956, 1974, and in 1988, China took six islands in the Spratly area by force and sank three Vietnamese ships.13Though within a short period of time China is more likely to preserve the current balance, it will never give up the use of force as an option to solve some disputes. Even though China is not likely to deliberately use force, the “Peaceful Rise” is not an assurance. Although the future condition of the Asia Pacific Area remains unpredictable, in the foreseeable future the stability of the area is likely to be sustained. Probably the balance is to be shifted to China as it keeps developing but the process will be a relatively peaceful one. China is neither militarily strong enough to survive any military tension with its biggest rival, namely America, nor economically powerful enough to afford the tremendous loss which would result from the end of the increasing interdependency of China and its neighbours. Similarly, owing to their increasing bilateral economic relations with China, the neighbouring countries, including Taiwan, also don’t wish to see the break of the current stability. However, if its benefits or sovereignty is threatened, the use of force as a means to resolve disputes will never be relinquished.

12Jacques,

Martin. When China Rules the World-The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. New York: The Penguin Group, 2009.
13Jacques,

Martin. When China Rules the World-The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. New York: The Penguin Group, 2009. 4