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Case Study - the Boeing 7e7

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Case Study – The Boeing 7E7
In early 2003, Boeing announced its “Dreamliner” plan to design and sell a new, “super-efficient” jet -- “7E7”. However, the overall market for aircrafts was negatively affected by several shock news: the United States went to war against Iraq, a deadly illness called SARS resulted in global travel warnings. These negative news made airline profits the worst seen in a generation. Michael Bair, the leader of the 7E7 project, announced that Boeing was making “excellent progress on the development of the 7E7 and continues to be on track to seek authority to offer the airplane.” on June 16, 2003, at the prestigious Paris Air Show. In order to proceed with the project, Bair sought a firm commitment from Boeing’s board of directors in early 2004. If the board approved the plan, he could start collecting orders from airlines and expect passengers to start flying on the new jets in 2008. Between now and his recommendation to the board, he would need to complete a valuation of the 7E7 project and gain the support of Boeing’s CEO, Philip Condit, and the other senior managers. Two aspects should be considered to solve the problem. The first aspect is whether this project can bring strategic advantage to the company. The second aspect is whether the cost of capital is less than the estimated rate of return. 7E7 is twin-aisle aircraft. Exhibit 4 shows aircraft distribution forecast of Boeing and Airbus (Boeing and Airbus almost occupies the global commercial aircraft market). As the data shows, Boeing forecasts that twin-aisle aircraft occupies 45% of the future 20-year market share, while Airbus gives a 35% forecast. This shows that twin-aisle aircraft has a great market in the foreseeable future. Boeing needs to have a competitive product to win the market. The 7E7, while carrying between 200 and 250 passengers, would be capable of both short, domestic flights as well as long, international hauls. It would use 20% less fuel than existing planes of its projected size and be 10% cheaper to operate than Airbus’s A330-200. At a time when major airlines were struggling to turn a profit, less fuel, cheaper operating costs, and long or short distance flexibility would be a very attractive package at the right price. The 7E7 project can help Boeing be competitive in the twin-aisle market in the foreseeable future. This project can bring great strategic advantage to the company. The estimated rate of return of 7E7 project is 15.7%. If the cost of capital for this project is lower that the estimate rate of return, this project is profitable. Boeing’s weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) could be estimated using the following well-known formula: WACC = (percent Debt)(rd)(1 – tc) + (percent Equity)(re) where: rd = Pretax cost of debt capital tc = Marginal effective corporate tax rate percent Debt = Proportion of debt in a market-value capital structure re = Cost of equity capital percent Equity = Proportion of equity in a market-value capital structure 1

Percent debt and percent equity can be derived from exhibit 10. Market-value debt/equity ratio of Boeing is 0.525. Then we can get the percent debt: 34.43%; and the percent equity: 65.57%. Exhibit 10 also shows that marginal effective corporate tax rate for Boeing is 35%. As to cost of equity capital, re = rf + Beta( rm – rf ). Rm-rf usually ranges from 5% to 6%. Rf is the risk free rate. We use the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond, which is 4.56%, as rf. The most difficult part is the calculation of Beta. We need the Beta of the commercial part of Boeing as the Beta of the 7E7 project. However, we only have the data of Boeing’s comparable firms, which are mainly focused on defense area. To get the Beta of Boeing’s commercial part, we firstly calculate the unleveraged Beta of Boeing’s defense part, which can be derived from calculating Boeing’s comparable firms’ unleveraged Beta. Then we can calculate Boeing’s unleveraged Beta and subtract its defense part. At last, we leverage Boeing’s unleveraged Beta for commercial part and get a Beta of 1.01. After getting all the data that we need to calculate the WACC. We can get a WACC of 12.53%, lower than the estimated rate of return of 7E7 project, which is 15.7%. So the 7E7 project is profitable. According to the above analysis, the 7E7 project is profitable and can bring strategic advantage to the company. It should get supported.

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