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Case of Analisys

In: Business and Management

Submitted By Danielamunozs
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Fuentes y usos de efectivo

FUENTES | | Aumento deuda bancaria | $1,000 | Aumento en ganancias retenidas | 883 | Disminución efectivo | 961 | Aumento anticipo clients | 726 | Aumento en cuentas por pagar | 600 | Disminución en cuentas por cobrar | 561 | Aumento impuestos por pagar | 329 | Disminución Activo fijo neto | 92 | Disminucuón gastos prepagados | 20 | TOTAL FUENTES EFECTIVO | $5,172 | | | USOS | | Recompra stock | $3,000 | Aumento inventario | 2,163 | Disminución en acumulado | 9 | TOTAL USOS EFECTIVO | $5,172 |

Teniendo en cuenta sus fuentes y usos de efectivo, por qué Hampton no podría pagar su crédito inicial a tiempo? Qué pudo haber pasado entre noviembre 78 y agosto 79 que la llevó a esta situación?
A juzgar por lo expuesto, pareciera que el fuerte aumento en inventario es el responsable de la imposibilidad de cumplir el pago del crédito a tiempo. El aumento parece deberse a un retraso inesperado en la recepción de cierta pieza crítica.

Basándose en la información entregada en el caso, prepare un Presupuesto de caja proyectado para el periodo septiembre – diciembre 1979

SE ASUME: * Cobra a 30 días y paga a 30 días. * CxC de octubre corresponden a 2163 menos los 840 pagados por adelantado, al igual que en noviembre, 1505 menos 726.

Prepare un Estado de Resultados proyectado para el mismo periodo y un balance proforma para diciembre 1979.

El presupuesto de caja y los estados financieros proyectados arrojan los mismos resultados?
Deberían. (inventario inicial + compras + otros gastos – costo bienes vendidos = Inv. Final)
Sí, la entrada de -332000 es igual al balance de caja final de diciembre.

Es correcto que el Sr. Cowings piense que pueden pagar el crédito en diciembre? No pareciera que sería mejor hacerlo a comienzos del próximo año?
Hampton parece no poder cumplir con el pago del crédito en diciembre de 79. Sin embargo, si se extiende el presupuesto de caja por un mes (enero 80) pareciera que puede cumplir con el pago en ese periodo.

Qué ganancias proyecta Hampton para el 79? Cómo se comparan dichas ganancias con el monto del crédito? ROA y ROE para 1079. Evaluar ratio CxC sobre crédito.
Qué debería decidir el Sr. Eckwood con respecto al crédito?

Utilidad proyectada 1979 | $1,822,000. ($914 + 908). | Utilidad proyectada/crédito bancario | 1.35 veces (1.823 / 1.35). | 1979 ROA | 29% (1,823 / 6,223 activos dic 79). | 1979 ROE | 43.5% (1,823 / 4,183 capital dic 79). | Dic CxC/crédito bancario | 1.67 veces (2,265 / 1,350). |
Sin contar con que Hampton no puede pagar su crédito en diciembre, pareciera ser un buen crédito en la perspectiva del banco. El monto del crédito equivale a menos de un año de utilidades de la empresa, roe y roa son buenos y la empresa tiene un buen colchón de CxC. Se puede notar que ñas CxC en diciembre son altas, por lo que el periodo siguiente, al hacerlas efectivas, sería mas apropiado para pagar el crédito.
Cabe notar que la empresa está pidiendo el crédito para necesidades del largo plazo, stock y equipamiento; y pretende pagarlos en el corto plazo; no es extraño que Hampton no pueda pagar el crédito tan pronto como lo propuso.

Cómo varía el EPS luego de la recompra de acciones.

Utilidad 1978 = 783000
Acciones 1978 = 117800
EPS = $6,65 (783000/117800)

Después de la recompra:
Acciones: 42800
EPS = $18,29 (783000/42800)

Después de la compra y considerando el uso de 2 millones:
Utilidad 1978 = 623000 (783000 – (0,08 x 2000000))
EPS = $14,56 (623000/42800)

DPS en 1978, cuál es el dividendo propuesto para 1979; está de acuerdo?

DPS 1978 = $0,42 (50000/117800)
Propuesto para 1979 = $5,84 (100000(jun)+150000(dic)/42800)

Debería eliminar o reducir el monto que pretende entregar en diciembre.

Objetivos del caso
! Reafirmar los conocimientos relacionados con las técnicas empleadas para realizar proyecciones financieras
! Presupuesto de tesorería y
! Análisis de estados proyectados o Pro Forma
! Adquirir práctica en la evaluación crítica de los supuestos utilizados en los pronósticos financieros.
! Decidir sobre la conveniencia de otorgar un crédito a una firma fuertemente endeudada.
! Mostrar el impacto de una recompra de acciones y el reparto de dividendos.

Análisis
! Porqué una firma rentable como Hamptom no puede repagar su deuda y además necesita fondos adicionales?
! Veamos el EOAF para analizar los movimientos del período….
! Usos de fondos:
Recompra de acciones
Acumulación de Inventarios por mayor nivel de actividad
! “Cuello de botella” en la producción que generó:
Acumulación de trabajos en proceso y
Materias primas
! Las principales fuentes de financiamiento fueron:
Prestamos bancarios y ganancias retenidas
Seguidas por reducciones en caja y ctas. A cobrar
! Después de la recompra de acciones, Hamptom comenzó a reconstruir su saldo de caja.
! Las ctas a cobrar llegan a un pico en el primer trimestre de 1979 reflejando el incremento en las ventas.

¿Cuáles son las razones por las que Hamptom no fue capaz de atender la deuda? ¿Será capaz de devolver un mayor monto en diciembre?
! Veamos el presupuesto de tesorería para analizar los movimientos de caja del período….
! Hamptom no será capaz de devolver el préstamo en diciembre !!!!!!
! El cambio en enero se debe al cobro de las ventas de diciembre que son las mas altas.
! Los estados financieros pro forma confirman las conclusiones del presupuesto de tesorería.
Por qué
Amenazas
! El cuello de botella en los procesos productivos es la principal amenaza al crecimiento en ventas.
! Un segundo argumento son las cuentas a cobrar que han excedido las ventas mensuales.
! No se ve intención y posibilidad de reducir inventarios de MP y mantener los programas productivos en línea con las ventas proyectadas.
! Supuestos conservadores incluyen el pronto pago a proveedores y la omisión de anticipos de clientes (fuentes de fondos significativas).

Y desde el lado del banco…. ¿Debiera conceder el préstamo?
Factores a favor:
1. Alta demanda por los bienes de Hamptom que se producen a pedidos
2. La rentabilidad de las ventas proyectadas, que no parecen inalcanzables
3. El valor para el banco del negocio de la firma
4. La inversión en equipo ayudará a evitar un colapso en la producción
5. Las proyecciones indican que la empresa no tendrá problemas en devolver el préstamo en enero 1980

Factores en contra:
1. Incertidumbre acerca de los supuestos empleados para proyectar los estados
2. El repago depende de que se logren las ventas de diciembre y además se puedan cobrar…..
3. Riesgo del negocio de los bienes de capital, en especial del sector automotriz
4. El alto endeudamiento de la firma

Sugerencias
! Posponer la devolución del préstamo hasta enero de 1980
! Posponer el pago de dividendos de $150.000 hasta completar la devolución del préstamo
! Posponer el gasto de capital de $350.000 hasta 1980?
1. Bajo nivel en los activos fijos y
2. Reducidos gastos de capital en 1978-1979

Recompra de acciones
! Recompra de 75.000 a $40 cada una
! Reducción de la cantidad de acciones de 117.800 a 42.800, un 64%.
! Incremento en el valor de libros de las acciones de $47 a $61.
! EPS sobre al base de 117.800 era $6,65 mientras que después de la recompra es $18,29
! El ROE al final de 1978 aumenta de 14% a 30%.
Sin embargo el financial leverage se dispara

Dividendos
! Propuesta de aumento de los dividendos de $50.000 en 1978 a $250.000 en 1979.
! DPS aumentan de $0,42 en 1978 a $5,84 en 1979.
! Esto implica un incremento en los DPS de 14 veces financiado con………………………… mientras tanto con DEUDA BANCARIA

Ratios:

Liquidez Razón de liquidez = AC/PC Razón ácida =( AC – Inventario)/PC Endeudamiento Leverage = Pasivos totales 3º/Patrimonio Cobertura Gastos Financieros = Utilidad operacinal/gastos financieros Deuda activos = Total pasivos/total activos

Gestión Rotación inventario = Ing vta/existencias

Rentabilidad ROE = Resultado ejercicio/Patrimonio ROA = Resultado explotación/Activos totales

Capital de trabajo = AC – PC

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