...Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence ABSTRACT This survey outlines the evolution of thought leading to the recent developments in the study of business cycles. The subject is almost coextensive with short-term inacrodynamics and has a large interface with economics of growth, money, inflation, and expectations. The coverage is +-)y.Pry' kg4h v4r 4 ii4 c,1 ,i4 4 tT The paper first summarizes the "stylized facts" that ought to be explained by the theory. This part discusses the varying dimensions of business cycles; their timing, amplitude, and diffusion features; some international aspects; and recent changes. The next part is a review of the literature on "self-sustaining" cycles. It notes some of the older theories and proceeds to more recent models driven by changes in investment, credit, and price-cost-profit relations. These models are mainly endogenous and deterministic. Exogenous factors and stochastic elements gain importance in the part on the modern theories of cyclical response to monetary and real disturbances. The early monetarist interpretations of the cycle are followed by the newer equilibrium models with price misperceptions and intertemporal substitution of labor. Monetary shocks continue to be used but the emphasis shifts from nominal demand changes and lagged price adjustments to informational lags and supply reactions. Various problems arise, revealed by intensive testing and criticisms...
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...... I dream of a city ... a city full of people ... a crowded city ... a city with lots of bad people, and a little number of good people ... a city full of mosque ... people call it "The City of Mosque" ... in the dawn of winter if you wake up, You will hear the sound of Azan, from all the mosques from the city. ... Sorry, what did you say? you know a city like this one, the one exactly like I just said ... he he :) no my dear, you may not know this city, because in this city there are "cycles" ... lots and lots of cycles ... I want to call it "The City of Cycles", because in here everyone uses cycle for transport. You want to go in long distance or short distance, the city people use cycle. You wondering why cycle, because this city people prefer it, ... why, I don’t know :( ... when I ask one of them, "why do you ride cycle?" he first look at me, examine me if I am a stupid reporter from TV want tomake a news on him, then he said, "are you new in this city? Cycle is the Trademark of this city. Didn't you notice it?" I say, "Yeah! I noticed ... That's why I was asking ... is there any reason?" The man sighed and paddled on his way. Then I found a girl, she stopped and asked if I wanted a ride? I nodded. She was on the way to her office, she told me an amazing story, a story of sorrow, cough, dust and worst of'em all, a GHOST. YES, believe it or not, there was a ghost in the city. People called it "The Deadly One". Because it is a crowded city, when people came out from...
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...Long Day’s Journey into Night: The Perpetual Cycles within O’Neill’s Play O’Neill’s Long Day’s Journey into Night (1956, 2002) is a depiction of the Tyrone family and the ongoing cycle of events that occur within the span of one single day in their life. At first glance, patriarch James, his wife Mary, and adult sons Jamie and Edmund, appear to be the average family in the year 1912, until one looks further and finds that each appears to be in their own version of purgatory, stuck in a repetition of events and behaviors that are both non-productive, as well as destructive. Ultimately, these result in their being condemned to continually relive the worst events in their life with their most unflattering characteristics, time and time again. Yet, in doing so, they not only self-sabotage, but sabotage each other and prevent any member of the family from realizing any genuine relief or finding any true resolution amidst this perpetual cycle, which is essentially foreshadowed by the title, itself. Therefore, from the ongoing cycle of denial and blame, to anger and guilt, to drug use and abuse, Long Day’s Journey into Night is a cynical story that illustrates the seemingly infinite cycles that depict the perpetual struggles that occur within one family over the course of an average day as the light gives way to darkness. As such, the paragraphs that follow elaborate on some of the most prominent cycles within the story, beginning with a discussion of the Tyrone family’s...
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...11 A.M with my friend. There was lot of fashionable cycle with difference price range. The fashionable cycle price started from 9000 to 26000. It is very difficult for me to one from lot of cycle. I have seen more than hundred of cycle. But I couldn’t pick up one so easily because of my budget. I had a budget of 18000tk. Sometime I choice cycle but unfortunately it above of my budget. After seeing long time I take a decision to increase my budget in 22000tk for that I have to borrow 4000tk from my friend. So I have taken a bicycle exchange of 21500tk by spend of 6 hours. That cycle name is Totem Grim. It can run 30km per hour. When I back home with cycle, my family members were praised about cycle, after hearing price of cycle, they were little upset with me. Somehow I overcome it. Now I went to everywhere by cycle even my varsity too. My varsity distance is 12km from my home. When I went to varsity by bus it taken minimum two hours & I have to hurry for sitting, most of time hanging with door for long time & no guarantee to reach in correct time. Now I can go to my varsity within one hour & I don’t need to hanging & I reach in correct time. Most of time I got company from other cycler’s .Now in Chittagong City most of the Youth are using cycle to reach in their destination. There have many bicycle groups who are trying to inspired people for using cycle & keep our city jam free. The purchasing of cycle is proved very useful for me. It’s saved my money &...
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...What is he trying to achieve in the round of changes he put in motion in that period? Is there a logic or rationale supporting the change process? We can say that Welch’s approach to business improvement has gone through three different cycles of learning: a) In the first cycle (from early 1980s to late 1980s) he focused GE on the elimination of variety in its portfolio of businesses by reducing the nonperforming businesses. He launched the “#1 or #2” approach. The central idea that guided GE’s business decisions was that those business areas that intended to compete in global markets must either be or become number-one or number-two in their market places. Those businesses that had no chance of attaining this goal were to be fixed, either sold or closed. During this stage almost 200 businesses were sold off and more than 370 acquisitions were achieved. The rationale behind managing the portfolio of businesses was to ensure that GE would make the best use of its capital for appropriate investments. To strengthen this measure, Welch eliminated the sector level, ensuring that all businesses reported directly to him, situation that would create more pressure and control on the businesses’ CEO to deliver results. b) In the second cycle (from late 1980s to mid-1990s), once GE had focused itself on targeted business areas, Welch focused the company on simplifying and eliminating non-value-added activities through creative efforts of teams using Work-Outs. This tool was used...
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...expansion and peaks over their years in business. Larson, Inc. needs to analyze the difference scenarios and determine the best course of action for each type of economic future. Also, the company must consider the economy’s stage in the business cycle to make well-informed decisions. Economic projections The business cycle will have continual change and fluctuate over time. History has shown us how the economy goes through peaks, recessions, troughs, and expansion. It is important for all businesses to understand the concepts of macroeconomics and how the business cycle is affected. Larson, Inc. can plan for the changes to remain successful and innovative. The business cycle is determined by the changes in GDP or gross domestic product. The change in the GDP can occur from economic reasons such as changes in demand, taxes and interest rates. It can also change from non-economic reasons such as war or natural disasters. The company must be aware and analyze the different indicators of the changing economy. The recession, in which Larson Inc. is currently experiencing, is a normal part of the business cycle. It is said that fiscal and monetary policies can help decrease the peaks and recessions of the business cycle. The government would step in with fiscal policies. The government can provide more funding for private sectors and cut taxes to help stimulate the economy in a recession (www.frbsf.org). Monetary policy is controlled by the Federal Reserve Board...
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...clear and thorough understanding of the concept of ovulation and the use of ovulation prediction kits. ------------------------------------------------- Table of contents: 1) What is ovulation? 2) Understanding the ovulation cycle a) Follicular phase b) Ovulation c) Luteal Phase 3) Why ovulation prediction is necessary? 4) Various methods for predicting/detecting ovulation, their advantages and disadvantages d) Urinary ovulation test kits e) Salivary ovulation test kits f) Basal body temperature charting g) Cervical mucus monitoring h) Monitoring lower abdominal discomfort 5) What is the best ovulation test kit? 6) Which kit should you choose - Medical and Review Data 7) ------------------------------------------------- Tips on getting better results from urinary & salivary ovulation test kits ------------------------------------------------- What is ovulation? At its simplest, ovulation is the release of an ovum from the mature follicle in an ovary, into the uterine tubes; usually occurring on the 14th day of the ovulatory cycle in an average adult female. The concept of ovulation is elaborated with an easy explanation of the ovulatory cycle in the text that follows. All of the ova are produced during the individual’s fetal life. They are then stored in the ovaries as primordial follicles and stay as such till the individual reaches puberty. A primordial follicle consists...
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...Gender Identity Paper Khadija Kemp Psy/340 November 26, 2012 Instructor: Diane Snyder It appears as if the human body has been created to perform at its fullest potential according to just the right combination of hormones. Hormones are chemicals that are secreted from particular cells that flow into the bloodstream and then transported into a variety of body parts responsible for acting on certain tissues. These hormones affect physical and mental aspects of the human being. (Priya Johnson, 2011) The monthly menstrual cycle is just one of many biological factors that determine how hormones work in women. It is a very common for women to behave in a certain manner during the time of their menstrual cycle. Women are more prone to crave sex and have their sexual desire increase during the time of their menstrual cycle. Mood swings are known to occur frequently and without warning. Studies reveal that as women near their ovulation cycle, they will eat less and have greater sexual desire. They will pay closer attention to the opposite sex, become more flirtatious and even dress in a sexier manner to attract men. All of this happens as a result of the hormonal fluctuations occurring during the menstrual period. (Priya Johnson, 2011) Pregnancy and childbirth are other biological factors associated with hormone and behavior. A woman experiencing pregnancy is vulnerable to a variety of behavioral changes during this time. Pregnant women are known to go from one extreme...
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...Checkpoint: Historical Example of Labor Supply and Demand Aaron Rhome XECO/212 11/17/12 Jim Vernon Checkpoint: Historical Example of Labor Supply and Demand The era of American history known as the Great Depression represents the bleakest chapter in the history of the economy United States. A series of events culminated into the largest economic downturn in known history, with no end in sight. Following the stock market crash on September 3, 1929 millions of Americans rushed their banks to withdrawal their funds before their bank collapsed. Their actions caused many more banks to fail and limited the availability of credit to businesses. This lack of credit combined with reduced consumer spending lowered the demand for labor and unemployment skyrocketed as a result. At the outset of the depression domestic and foreign demand for automobiles had turned American auto manufacturing was the biggest industry in the world and was the driving force behind the U.S. economy (McCarthy, 2012). As thousands of banks and other companies closed or slowed production unemployment levels skyrocketed to a height of 25% by 1933 (Croft Communications, 2012). The increased supply of available labor coincided with a decrease in demand for automobiles resulting in a labor equilibrium that required fewer workers and lowered wages. According to McCarty (2012), “During the early 1930s, hundreds of thousands of workers...
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...sensitive to asset price trends and respond proactively to prevent any build up of bubbles. In the Indian context, this paper provides empirical evidence to explain the relevance of a policy of no direct use of the interest rate instrument for stabilising asset price cycles. While the asset price channel of monetary policy is clearly visible in empirical estimates, there is no evidence of monetary policy responding to asset price developments directly. Asset price changes also do not seem to influence the inflation path, as per the impulse response analysis in a structural VAR model. This suggests why monetary policy may continue to refrain from responding directly to asset price cycles. Credit market shocks, however, explain significant proportion of asset price variations over medium to long run, which though could be part of a broader comovement of variables over the business cycle, as visible in terms of simultaneous movement in real activity, credit flows and asset prices. Higher interest rates seem to lead to contraction in output, credit demand as well as asset prices; hence, only the impact on asset prices should not be viewed as a good enough reason to use monetary policy for stabilising asset price cycles. The financial stability concerns from asset price bubbles could be better addressed through micro and macro-prudential measures, and the effectiveness of such measures could be enhanced when...
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...Describe market typical buying and consumer behaviors Among the trend of age that give precedence to reduce the global warming, the seek for compensate energy to use append with the trend of healthy, match the product developing with abovementioned trend be able to superb thing in this time for entrepreneur and consumer. From situation of the world oil price continue expensive, many country turn to increase the use of bicycle. Thus, the entrepreneur should know the motivations and the concerns of consumers with electric bicycles before invest in this business. The motivations and the concerns of consumers with electric bicycles include: Health Benefits from Cycling Conventional cycling has long been known as one of the best methods possible for low impact cardiovascular exercise. Power assistance adds no additional exertion to a rider than does conventional cycling, and retains the option to pedal. Practicality Benefits from Power Assistance Adding electric power to a bicycle can help guarantee multiple benefits of cycling and greatly increase usability. Electric bicycles enable a better use of time, additional energy for longer distances at greater speed, and perhaps some extra power for additional cargo. * Greater speed and range enable an electric bicycle to address multiple needs at one time. e.g. combining time-sensitive commuting with exercise. * The additional power permits the ability to transport more cargo. * Good design enables a rider...
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...following statements are true or false: a. An economy experiences growth if it produces more goods and services than the year before. (T) (An increase in the production means an increase in the GDP) b. Investment in physical capital means hiring more employees. (F) (Human capital is used for workforce) c. The convergence hypothesis asserts that poor countries grow slower than rich countries, thereby widening the income gap between the two sets of countries. (F) d. Trend output fluctuates around actual output, since it is latter that matters most. (F) (Actual output fluctuates around Trend output due to change in trends) e. Real business cycles assume that cycles reflect fluctuations around output, while political cycles reflect fluctuations around the political establishment. (T) ( f. In the business cycle, recession follows boom, and is followed by slump. (T) g. During recession, business profits increase. (F) Multiple Choice: 2) An increase in living standards generally takes place when: a) GDP grows vigorously over a long period of time. b) GDP declines only moderately. c) GDP is volatile. d) GDP long-term trend is flat. 3) Which of the following is NOT an example of an increased standard of living? a) Lower life expectancy. b) Indoor plumbing. c) Medical advances. d) Telephones in every home. 4) Long-term growth is measured by: a) Looking at real GDP per capita for a long period of time. :: ...
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...I believe the one technology that could have the greatest impact on enterprise architecture in U.S. corporations by 2023 is cloud computing. As indicated on the hype cycle for emerging technologies in 2013, it currently is in the trough of disillusionment; however, I believe that cloud computing will bring about the most change to enterprise architecture by 2023. Cloud computing will have the ability to bring enterprise architecture a step forward and redefine the way businesses will support their architecture. As cloud computing evolves, as will enterprise architecture in the way that advanced concepts and practices will eventually be deemed as government requirements. By 2023, I anticipate that most, if not all, companies will be using a cloud platform where it will be used on multiple devices – this brings attention to EA as it will make it more challenging to standardized personal devices. BYOD will become a more relevant option with increased capabilities, like scalability and using software as a service through the cloud, impacting the way EA is integrated in an organization. The shift in enterprise architecture will also stem from the control needed from cloud computing. Currently, when companies move to cloud computing, they are essentially handing control over the design parameters of the enterprise. As a result, the role of the enterprise architect will become obsolete as the responsibilities were to build and maintain a stable model for the business. The...
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...The creation of euro is supposed to bring political integration and peace, bind continent even more close together and encourage trade between the European countries. However, Euro has brought a series of problems to countries which are using it. The advantages of using a single currency like Euro are as follows. Firstly, it reduced the transaction cost, no other currency is necessary when conducting business or travelling in the Eurozone. Businesses would no longer have to pay hedging costs which they do today in order to insure themselves against the threat of currency fluctuations. Businesses, involved in commercial transactions in different member states, would no longer have to face administrative costs of accounting for the changes of currencies, plus the time involved. The single European currency also stimulates trade activities and free movement of capital, there would be greater transparency and greater competition as prices are easier to compare thus trades between countries would increase. However, using a single currency would lead to a loss of flexibility. For instance government’s fiscal and monetary policies are restricted because of they are using Euro. When countries are experiencing recession, they are unable to combat recession by loosening their fiscal stance. They would be unable to devalue to boost exports, to borrow more to boost job creation or cut taxes when they see fit because ...
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...Negative Impact of Economic Recession By Tejvan Pettinger on September 11, 2012 in economics A recession means a fall in GDP / national output. A recession will typically be characterised by high unemployment, falling average incomes, increased inequality and higher government borrowing. The impact of a recession depends on how long it lasts and the depth of the fall in output. The great recession of 2008-12 has shown many of the negative impacts of recession. Unemployment Not everyone is affected equally by a recession. A fall in GDP will cause a rise in unemployment. This is because: • Some firms will go bankrupt meaning all workers lose their jobs. • In an effort to reduce costs, firms will cut back on hiring new workers. Therefore, unemployment often affects young people the most. In this recession, unemployment in the UK has risen to over 2.6 million, though given the depth of the recession, you might have expected it to be even more (e.g. in 1980s, unemployment rose to over 3 million). However, in Europe, many countries in recession have seen a catastrophic rise in unemployment. With rates of over 20% in countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. [pic] Rise in Spanish Unemployment. Source ECB Lower wages Firms will also try to reduce costs by keeping wages low. Some workers (especially temporary workers without contracts may see wage cuts) This has been a key feature of the 2008-12 recession, also aggravated by rising costs of living. With...
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