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China Mobile

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Submitted By speedup
Words 500
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Telecoms Sector

Scruton Global Research

China Mobile
Buy: prefer ‘in China’ to ‘made in China’
 Stock market down 40% on devaluation, weak exports, bubble burst
 Services outgrowing the economy, room for monetary/fiscal support
 Buy as barometer of Chinese services growth, on asymmetric support
China’s stock market has plunged by about 40% since its peak a few months ago.
The rout was triggered by devaluation of the Yuan against the dollar encouraging capital flight, fears over slowing economic growth, and the appearance of a stock market bubble having burst. Exports have slowed and factory gate prices are falling, though so have import volumes and commodity costs. Indicators more relied upon than local government supplied statistics - such as rail shipment volumes and electricity demand - indicate a slowing manufacturing sector.
Although Chinese growth has slowed in the last few years, rebalancing from industry to services means that services growth remains strong. Weakness in the stock market prompted the government to reduce interest rates and bank reserve requirements but at 4.6% and 18% respectively there is room for further monetary loosening. The currency was devalued, though slightly and against a much-strengthened dollar not other currencies, giving little support for exports.
Furthermore, having planned to have a modest budget deficit, China has a yearto- date surplus, giving room for fiscal loosening. Its room to support the financial system and real economy appears far greater than in many other emerging markets. The wealth effect of stock market fall should also be modest. It follows a trebling, so the boost was short lived, and the stock market is a modest one-third of GDP, small by international comparisons and relative to the much more important land and property market, which is still rising.
China mobile is a leading

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