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China Quarterly Update

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datWorld Bank Office, Beijing www.worldbank.org.cn www.worldbank.org/china

CHINA QUARTERLY UPDATE
SUSTAINING GROWTH

April 2012

The China Quarterly Update reviews recent economic developments in China, updates the economic outlook and lays out key policy challenges. This issue was produced by Philip Schellekens (task team leader) and Xiaoli Wan, in collaboration with Xiaofan Liu, Philip O’Keefe, Dewen Wang and Min Zhao, and under the overall guidance of Klaus Rohland, Sudhir Shetty, Bert Hofman and Ardo Hansson. Comments are gratefully acknowledged from country economists in the East Asia and Pacific Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit. The team would also like to thank Jianqing Chen, Tianshu Chen, Li Li, Li Ouyang and Yan Wang for support in the production and dissemination of this report. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or governments they represent. This report takes into account information available up to end of March 2012. Questions and feedback can be addressed to Philip Schellekens (pschellekens@worldbank.org).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS The Chinese economy is in the midst of a gradual slowdown. A weaker global economic environment and tighter domestic policies combined to slow GDP growth from 10.4 percent in 2010 to 9.2 percent in 2011. Slow growth in the Euro area and sluggish recovery in the US limited the contribution of net exports, as exports decelerated more rapidly than imports. Tighter domestic policy conditions dampened investment – particularly in infrastructure and real estate. In contrast, consumption growth remained robust as consumer confidence was sustained and household income continued to grow rapidly. Inflation, which was a policy concern over 2011, has been on a declining

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