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Chinas Managed Float

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Case Study: China Revalues the Yuan and Moves to a Managed Float Regime, July 2005

Since early 1997, the Chinese government had pegged its currency, the yuan (or renminbi), to the U.S. dollar at a rate of Yuan8.28/$. The Chinese government had maintained this peg even through the difficult Asian currency crisis later in that year, when many emerging Asian countries were forced to abandon their pegs.

China argued for years that a fixed and stable currency was critical for the development and growth of its economy. Pegging its currency would remove currency risk (regarding the U.S. dollar) and could encourage the development of both Chinese exports and foreign direct investment into the country. The success of the Chinese economy during the pegged period was indeed remarkable, growing in real GDP terms at over 10% per year.

As China’s external trade grew, especially its surplus with the United States, increasing pressure was applied to the Chinese government, especially from Washington, to revalue the currency. The U.S. argued that its increasing trade deficit with China was the result of a significantly overvalued yuan. China argued that it was the result of their competitive cost position.

While China continued to resist Washington’s calls for revaluation, they did acknowledge that maintaining the peg at 8.28 was becoming very costly in terms of buying U.S. dollars that were flowing into the country from trade and investment. In addition, speculative flows into the country, in anticipation of an eventual yuan revaluation, also required the central bank to purchase dollars and other hard currencies. By early 2005, China’s foreign exchange reserves exceeded $700 billion and they were the holders of $190 billion in U.S. government bonds.

On July 21, 2005, the Chinese government officially changed the value of the yuan and announced that they were

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