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Section 7: Conclusion

Section

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

7

Conclusion
Given the importance of China today, there can

Wild cards are low probability events which

be no doubt that the determination of Chinese

would have a significant impact if they were to

leadership to maintain the course of reform will

occur. In the case of China they could include :

be a decisive factor in the global future. It is



A possible Taiwan conflict :

equally true that the support of other global

How would China react if Taiwan were to

players and their preparedness to welcome

declare independence ? For many years

China in its gradual rise in greatness will have a

independence was not an issue as the

direct impact on how China emerges. Given the

Kuomintang rulers of Taiwan claimed they

close connection between China and global

were the real government of China and

welfare, these scenarios indicate that outsiders

had no interest in relinquishing their claim

must appreciate the scale of the challenges

on sovereignty. But independence has

faced by the government in Beijing, and that

become an issue with the rise of generations

those in China need to comprehend the

born and raised on the island. They have

sensitivities of outsiders to its rise.

successfully established democratic rule and some do not want to be subject to rule

Raising awareness of differing sensitivities is an important role that scenarios can play.

from a distant capital. The implications of

The aim is certainly not to pretend that the

any conflict with Taiwan would depend in

scenarios predict the future. One cannot expect

part on the reaction of the United States.

any of these scenarios to come true as they



Natural catastrophe :

stand. Rather the scenarios use available

What happens if Beijing is hit by a major

knowledge to sketch the boundaries of the

earthquake? China is located in one of the

plausible. In so doing, they can help the reader

most active seismic regions of the world

better understand what could happen and how

and has in the last 30 years been shaken

single headlines in the media may reflect

by numerous earthquakes killing at least

more fundamental changes.

750,000 people. There will no doubt be earthquakes in China in the next twenty years but the likelihood of one that disrupts
Beijing’s ability to function is low. If a severe earthquake were to lead to a temporary power vacuum, or the ensuing damage were not properly cleared up, it could be a source of major instability.

66

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Having read the scenarios, it is possible to

Others could include :

ask after each one : “If this world were to come



Health crises and epidemics,

about, what would it mean for me?” By living the

aggravated by the breakdown of the rural

future in advance, it is possible for governments,

health system;

businesses and non-governmental organizations

Financial crises and bank failures,

to build robust strategies and policies that would

aggravated by insufficient transparency and

work in all scenarios. Indeed, it is even possible

political pressures on those lending money ;

to develop an early warning system on the basis

Mass social unrest where largely

of the scenarios to give advance notice if a trend

separate demonstrations meld into a single

becomes perceptible, thus gaining a competitive

mass protest.

Section 7: Conclusion

These are just two of many possible wild cards.

edge.





It is our hope that the scenarios will stimulate
Each of these could have a major impact if they

an engaged discussion. Making explicit a number

occurred, at least opening new possible futures

of issues may in itself cause change for good.

or ruling out others.

67

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Annex: Recommended Reading

Annex : Recommended Reading
Barton, D. 2004. Facing China. The McKinsey
Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.

International Energy Agency. 2004. World Energy
Outlook 2004. France.

Bekier, Matthias M., Richard Huang, and
Gregory P. Wilson. 2005. How to fix China’s banking system. The McKinsey Quarterly 2005.
Number 1.

Ministry of Health Report on China's Healthcare
System and Reform. 2005. (Executive Summary, unofficial translation). August.

Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane
Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic
Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia.
ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian
Development Bank. November.
Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The
Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse.
Singapore : John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005.
University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing
Technological Innovation. To be presented at
“Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and
Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des
Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros,
James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005.
Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and
Constraints. RAND Corporation.
Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs
Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s
Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume
XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.

68

Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004.
New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special
Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
OECD. 2005. Economic Surveys China. France.
September.
OECD. 2005. Promoting IPR Policy and
Enforcement in China: Summary of OECD-China dialogues on intellectual Property Rights Policy and Enforcement. France.
Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The
McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today. Panitchpakdi, Supachai, and Mark L. Clifford.
2002. China and the WTO: Changing China,
Changing World Trade. Singapore : John Wiley
& Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
Pitsilis, Emmanuel V., Jonathan R. Woetzel, and
Jeffrey Wong. 2004. Checking China’s vital signs.
The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition:
China today.
Poole, Philip, and the Emerging Markets
Economics Team, HSBC Global Research. 2005.
The Dragon and the Bear. Eurasia’s Nexus,
Emerging Markets Primal Knowledge. Macro :
United Kingdom, March.
Ramo, Joshua Cooper. 2004. The Beijing
Consensus. London: The Foreign Policy Centre.
May.

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Shambaugh, David. 2005. Rising Dragon and the American Eagle – Part I, “China's growing economic power and diplomatic clout may portend a turning of the tide against the US in Asia”. YaleGlobal Online. New Haven,
Connecticut : Yale Center for the Study of
Globalization, 20 April.
Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and
Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
Story, Jonathan. 2003. China : The race to market. Great Britain : Prentice Hall.

The Economist. 2004. Survey : Business in
China. 18 March.
The Economist. 2005. Survey : India and China.
3 March.
UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment
Research. 2005. How to Think About China.
Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong.
6 January.

Annex: Recommended Reading

Riedel, James, Jin Jin, and Gao Jian. 2004.
Investment, Financing Investment, and Growth in China. 30 August.

Wilson, Dominic, Roopa Purushothaman, and
Themistoklis Fiotakis. 2004. The Goldman Sachs
Group, Inc. The BRICs and Global Markets :
Crude, Cars and Capital. Global Economic Paper
No. 118. 14 October.
World Economic Forum. 2005. The Global
Competitiveness Report 2005-2006. Geneva.

69

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements
This publication is a result of substantial research



Prof. Lisheng Dong, Chinese Academy of

during the last year. The project team thanks the



Joachim Döring, Siemens AG

many people who responded to our invitation



Jalaj A. Dani, Asian Paints

to join and who gave so generously of their time,



Prof. Soumitra Dutta, INSEAD – Europe

to think hard about the future, and we appreciate



Joseph Fong, Hewlett-Packard

their commitment, discipline and courage.



Dr Tim Forsyth, London School of Economics



Prof. Jun Fu, Peking University

and thank each of the more than one hundred



Stephen Gerlach, Santos Ltd

academic, social, government and business



Robert Go, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

and a number of workshops and interviews held

Social Sciences

energy and insights. They took up the challenge

While it is not possible to acknowledge

Campus

leaders who have been involved and offered their



Joseph (Joe) Golden, Accel Partners

diverse perspectives and insights, the project



William Hildreth, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

team would like to offer its special gratitude to



Dr Pongsak Hoontrakul, Chulalongkorn

the following :

University


i) Business, academic, social and government leaders who have actively

Sciences


participated in or led discussions at our various workshop in Beijing, London, Paris, Shanghai,

Prof. Ping Huang, Chinese Academy of Social
Daniel Jensen, Advanced Micro Devices
China Ltd



Singapore and Washington:

Hirotsugu Koike, Nihon Keizai Shimbun
Europe Ltd



Duane Kuang, Intel Capital Asia Pacific



Jonathan Anderson, UBS AG Hong Kong



Prof. Jean-Pierre Lehmann, IMD International



Prof. Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University



Steven R. Leonard, Symantec Corporation



Philip Bowring, International Herald Tribune



Alan Leong, Computer Associates



Jeffrey G. Bullwinkel, Microsoft Hong Kong Ltd



Robert D. Campbell, PricewaterhouseCoopers



Dr Shuhe (John) Li, SAP China



Michael J. Cannon-Brookes, IBM



Prof. Weisen Li, Fudan University



Dominick Cavuoto, Unisys Corporation



James D. Lin, Infosys Technologies (Shanghai)



Amanda J. Litzow, Computer Associates



Dr Gary Liu, China Europe International

Cadol Cheung, Intel Capital Asia Pacific



Henry Low, Solectron Corporation



Nathaniel Cheang, Arrow Electronics Asia Ltd



James Chen, Arrow Electronics China Ltd

International Inc.



Company Ltd

Prof. Shuaihua Cheng, Shanghai Municipal
Government Development Research Center

International Inc.

& Fudan University



Business School

Wai Chiew Chik, Singapore Economic



The Hon. Penny Low, Parliament of Singapore

Development Board



John McLean, British Telecom Ltd



Eric Y. Mahe, Computer Associates



Lee Aun Choong, Arrow Electronics Asia Ltd



70

Laiyong Chee, Accenture



Greg Collins, Solectron Corporation

International Inc.


Dr Horst Melcher, Deutsche Telekom KK

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Gengshu Miao, China Minmetals Corporation



Prof. William Mobley, China Europe

Prof. John Wong, National University of

International Business School





Charles Wu, IBM

Tan Sri Dr Noordin Sopiee, Institute of Strategic



Acknowledgements



Tim Herman Wu, Avaya (China)

Singapore

and International Studies


Armen Ovanessoff, Accenture



Prof. Jiahua Pan, Chinese Academy of Social



Communication Co. Ltd

Dr Richard T. Pascale, Templeton College,

Sciences
Oxford University



Prof. Michael Yahuda, London School of
Economics



Prof. Arthur Yeung, China Europe International
Business School



Prof. Jackie Y. Ying, Institute of Bioengineering



Prof. Gordon Redding, INSEAD – Europe
Campus



Simon Yu, Arrow Asia Pac Ltd



Prof. Lawrence Saez, London School of



Prof. Yongding Yu, Chinese Academy of



Dipender Saluja, Cadence Design Systems



Dr Linda Yueh, London School of Economics

Inc.



Prof. Juwei Zhang, Chinese Academy of



Thomas E. Schodorf, BMC Software

and Nanotechnology

Economics

Social Sciences

Social Sciences



Prof. Hellmut Schutte, INSEAD – Asia Campus



Prof. Sun Zhe, Fudan University



Gary Shainberg, British Telecom Plc



Zhi-Yong Zhou, British Telecom Plc



Prof. Jonathan Story, INSEAD – Europe



Prof. Ling Zhu, Chinese Academy of Social

Campus

Sciences



Cheng-Yaw Sun, Hewlett-Packard



Prof. Lijian Sun, Fudan University

ii) Experts and academics for their research



Gyan Patrick Tamby, GeoPost International

and contribution to the scenario publication:

Management & Development Holding GmbH


Simon S. Tay, Singapore Institute of



Dr Valérie Engammare, Fabrice Lehmann
& Prof. Jean-Pierre Lehmann, The Evian

International Affairs

Group at IMD



Vineet Toshniwal, Infosys Technologies Ltd



Sreedhar Venkiteswaran, Wipro Technologies



Dr Linda Yueh, London School of Economics



Prof. Georg von Krogh, University of St Gallen



Prof. Lisheng Dong, Chinese Academy of



Prof. Jianmao Wang, China Europe
International Business School



Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu



Sin-Yaw Wang, Sun Microsystems China Ltd



Dr Fan He, Chinese Academy of Social



Prof. Yizhou Wang, Chinese Academy of


Dr Elisabeth Economy, Council on Foreign



Dr Bin Zhang, Chinese Academy of Social

Social Sciences


Social Sciences

Sciences
Relations

Prof. Douglas Webber, INSEAD – Asia
Campus



Ming Wei, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.




Sciences

Peter Weiss, Siemens Limited China
Prof. Steven White, INSEAD – Asia Campus

71

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Project Team Members

China and the World 2025 : Project Team Members
The project team comprises the following individuals :
Project Director :

Alexander Van de Putte, World Economic Forum

Project Manager :

Alia Karaouni, World Economic Forum

World Economic Forum
Core research team:

Advisors:

Margareta Drzeniek

Simon Abdul Kudus

Kristel Van der Elst

Yu Liu

Sandrine Perrollaz

Alan P. Larson

Preeti Sinha

Augusto Lopez-Claros

Vidhi Tambiah

Simon Mulcahy
Alex Wong
Deming Zhu

Managing Director, World Scenario Series :
Ged Davis, World Economic Forum
Scenario champions and thought leaders :
Prof. Jean-Pierre Lehmann, IMD International
Prof. Jianmao Wang, China Europe International Business School
Dr Linda Yueh, London School of Economics
Scenario writers :

Esther Eidinow
Adrian Taylor

Editor :

Danielle Carpenter Sprungli

Economic modelling : Moody’s Economy.com
Creative design :

Kamal Kimaoui, World Economic Forum
Yu Liu, World Economic Forum
ComStone - Geneva

World Economic Forum www.weforum.org 72

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...Computers Today’s generation could never ever imagine in their wildest dreams about the world, ages before, when there were no computers or any other technologies. So much we have advanced that now every information is just a click away and is in your hands 24/7. All this advancement was possible only with the introduction of a small device called the “Computer”. Basically, computer is a device that accepts the message by the imputer and processes this message and stores the information at the storage devices and later gives an output of the message through the output devices. A simple explanation of the computer. Normally, a computer consists of a processing unit called the Central Processing Unit or the CPU and a form of memory. In the years between 1940 and 1945 were the first electronic digital computers developed. The initial sizes were as big as a room and consumed power as much as today’s personal computers. Initially, computer was related to a person who carries out calculations or computations and as such the word computer was evolved in 1613 and continued till the end of 19thcentury. Later it as re-described as a machine that carries computations. The early computers were limited in their functions. It was the fusion of automatic calculation and programmability that produced the first computers that were recognized in 1837. Charles Babbage in 1837 was the first to introduce and design a fully programmed mechanical computer, his analytical engine. Due to limited finances...

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It on Computers

...The computer is the most wonderful gift of science to the modern man. The computer can do all the works of man. Thus, after the invention of computer, the gap between man and machine has been bridged up. The dictionary meaning of the word "Computer" is an electronic calculating machine. It is derived from the word compute which means to reckon. But the function of the computer has expanded beyond the act of reckoning. Though a machine, it contains and provides innumerable information's and artificial intelligence of a very high order. It may seem strange, but it is true that the memory and intelligence of a computer can surpass those of a living human being. The mechanism of the computer is very simple. Information processing is the essence of computing. It is a data based machine. The data is fed into the machine. The machine is manipulated and then the due information is retrieved. Computer was invented due to the pressures of World War-II which witnessed the use of such sophisticated weapons as night bombers, submarines, and long range guns on ships and tanks, etc. The defenders have to fight back by shooting at targets and those targets of the enemy can be located by radar. Radar can inform not only about the location of the enemy but also about the direction and the speed of the enemy weapons. Detailed mathematical calculations are necessary to find out these things accurately. Firing tables are required by the front line soldiers. Thus the necessity of calculations...

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